Economy — Canada · Synthesis

Growth driven by demographics. Canadian GDP grew by approximately 1.1 to 1.5% in 2024 (Statistics Canada), an overall expansion sustained mainly by record immigration (see the Immigration category). But this growth is primarily quantitative: GDP per capita has declined, a sign that the economy is growing without enriching itself per head.

A productivity problem. Low productivity is the central structural challenge, flagged by the Bank of Canada as an "emergency". Business investment per worker is lower than in the United States, and the standard-of-living gap with the American neighbour has widened.

Relatively sound public finances. Gross public debt (all governments, IMF basis) is around approximately 105–107% of GDP, but net debt is considerably lower (pension funds, assets). The federal deficit is moderate, and Canada retains a high sovereign rating — a more comfortable position than several G7 peers.

A resource and services economy. Canada combines a powerful natural-resources sector (oil, gas, mining, timber), a dominant services sector and a significant weight of real estate. Strong commercial dependence on the United States (destination of the majority of exports) is a structural feature and a vulnerability.

High household indebtedness. Canada stands out with household debt among the highest in the OECD, largely linked to real estate (see the Housing category) — a financial vulnerability monitored closely by the Bank of Canada.

Raising productivity. The main long-term challenge is to break out of the productivity stagnation, through business investment, innovation and skills. This is the key to reversing the decline in GDP per capita.

Calibrating immigration to absorption capacity. The record pace of immigration having exceeded absorption capacity (housing, services, jobs), the government has lowered its targets (see the Immigration category). The balance between demographic contribution and sustainability is a central trade-off.

Dependence on the United States. The evolution of the trade relationship with the United States (tariffs, the North American agreement) is a major factor, given Canada's extreme commercial dependence on its neighbour.

Transition and resources. The future of the resources sector (oil, gas) in a decarbonizing world, and the development of critical minerals, are economic and climate challenges (see the Environment category).

The open questions. Three trade-offs will shape the period: (1) raising productivity and GDP per capita; (2) calibrating immigration to absorption capacity; (3) managing dependence on the United States and the resource transition.

Placed in its environment, Canada shows relatively sound public finances but a productivity and GDP per capita under strain, in an economy closely tied to the United States.

Three takeaways. (1) Decent overall growth, declining per capita. Canadian growth (≈ +1.1–1.5%) is close to France and the EU average, but the decline in GDP per capita sets it apart negatively.

(2) Debt: a more comfortable position. Canada's net debt is lower than that of France, Italy or the United Kingdom, an asset in terms of fiscal headroom.

(3) A growing gap with the United States. Canadian living standards and productivity are falling behind those of the more dynamic American neighbour — a central topic in the Canadian economic debate.