Economy — China · Synthesis

Official growth of around 5%. Chinese GDP reportedly grew by around 5.0% in 2024 according to official figures (NBS) — a high pace compared with developed countries, but a clear slowdown from previous decades. ⚠️ These figures are contested: several analysts estimate real growth to be lower than the official announcements.

The world's second-largest economy. With a GDP of around 18 trillion dollars, China is the world's second-largest economy after the United States (and the first in purchasing-power parity), and the world's top exporter of goods. Its weight in global value chains is decisive.

A severe real-estate crisis. The real-estate sector, long a driver of growth (up to a quarter of GDP with induced effects), is going through a major crisis (defaults by developers such as Evergrande and Country Garden, collapse in sales and prices, see the Housing category). It is the main drag on growth and a central financial risk.

Opaque local debt. The indebtedness of local governments (via financing vehicles, 'LGFVs'), largely off-balance-sheet, is high and difficult to measure. 'Augmented' public debt (including these commitments) would significantly exceed official figures — a major and opaque vulnerability.

A deflation risk. Unlike the West, China faces a risk of deflation (see the Prices category): weakness of domestic demand, real-estate crisis and industrial overcapacity. The rebalancing towards consumption, long announced, is struggling to materialise.

Finding a new growth model. The model based on investment, real estate and exports is showing its limits. Rebalancing towards domestic consumption and innovation is the central challenge, but is hampered by weak demand and household distrust.

Managing the real-estate crisis and debt. Stabilizing the real-estate sector and cleaning up local debt without triggering a financial crisis is a delicate trade-off being watched by the IMF. The true scale of commitments remains a major point of uncertainty.

Leadership in green technologies. China has become the global leader in electric vehicles, batteries and solar (see the Transport and Environment categories), a growth relay and source of influence — but also a source of trade tensions (overcapacity, Western tariffs).

Declining demography. The Chinese population has started to decline and is ageing rapidly (the one-child policy was lifted too late), which weighs on long-term growth potential (see the Labour category).

The open questions. Three trade-offs will shape the period: (1) successfully rebalancing towards consumption; (2) managing the real-estate crisis and local debt; (3) offsetting the demographic decline through innovation.

Placed in its environment, China remains the most dynamic of the major economies, but at a slower pace and with vulnerabilities (real estate, debt, deflation) and debated statistical reliability.

Three takeaways. (1) Growth: the highest. At ≈ 5% (official), China grows faster than the United States (+2.8%) and all developed countries, but from a per-capita development level still lower.

(2) A slowing trajectory. The structural slowdown brings China closer to middle-income country trajectories, raising the 'middle-income trap' question.

(3) Data to be handled with caution. Unlike the comparators (independent and audited statistics), Chinese figures are not independently verifiable — any comparison must be read with this caveat.