Environment & energy — China · Synthesis

The world's largest emitter, by far. China emits of the order of 12,000 MtCO2e and more (IEA/OWID), representing approximately 30% of global emissions — more than the United States and the European Union combined. This is the determining factor in the global climate trajectory.

Per-capita emissions now at European levels. Relative to population, Chinese emissions have reached, or even exceeded, the level of the European Union — a major shift, even though they remain below those of the United States and historically far lower in cumulative terms.

A dependence on coal. Coal still dominates China's energy and electricity mix, and new capacity continues to be built — the principal source of emissions and the central brake on decarbonization.

The world's largest investor in renewables. Paradoxically, China is by far the world's largest investor and producer of solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and electric vehicles (see the Transport category). It is deploying renewable capacity at an unmatched pace — a major climate and industrial asset.

Air and water pollution. Beyond climate, China has made notable progress on air quality in major cities (after critical peaks), but air and water pollution remains a major public health challenge (see the Health category).

The emissions peak. China targets an emissions peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. The timing and level of that peak, given the country's global weight, are decisive for the planetary climate — a challenge followed by the entire international community.

Coal vs renewables. The trajectory depends on how quickly the massive deployment of renewables will outpace the construction of new coal capacity — a domestic race at the heart of the outlook.

Green-technology leadership. China's dominance in solar, batteries and EVs is an asset for global decarbonization, but a source of trade tensions (overcapacity, Western tariffs; see the Economy category).

Adaptation. China is exposed to major climate risks (floods, heatwaves, water stress), making adaptation crucial.

The open questions. Three challenges will shape the decade: (1) reaching and advancing the emissions peak; (2) making renewables prevail over coal; (3) managing the trade tensions linked to green technologies.

Placed in its environment, China is the determining actor in the global climate: the largest emitter by far, but also the largest investor in the transition.

Three takeaways. (1) Volume: unmatched. At ≈ 12,000 Mt and more, China emits roughly twice as much as the United States (≈ 5,500-6,000) and far more than the European Union (≈ 3,000) — it is the primary determinant of global emissions.

(2) Per capita: at European levels. China's per-capita emissions have reached those of the EU, while remaining below the United States and Canada, and well above India.

(3) A dual role. China is simultaneously the biggest problem (coal, volume) and a large part of the solution (green technologies) for the global climate — a central paradox.