Housing — Japan · Synthesis

A market where homes depreciate. Japan has an atypical real estate market: homes depreciate with age (like consumer goods) and are frequently demolished and rebuilt. This logic, the inverse of the West, limits speculation on buildings and maintains relative affordability.

Abundant construction. More permissive urban planning regulations (notably in Tokyo) allow abundant construction, which has contained prices in the capital despite demand — a case often cited as an example against Western affordability crises.

Millions of vacant dwellings ('akiya'). The flip side of depopulation is a very high number of vacant dwellings ('akiya'), around 14% of the housing stock, especially in rural areas and small towns experiencing demographic decline — a major planning challenge, with low-cost transfer schemes.

A moderate homeownership rate. The owner-occupier rate is approximately 61%, around the average, with a well-developed rental market in major cities.

Contrasting affordability. Affordability is generally better than in several Western metropolises, but housing costs remain high in Tokyo and older, smaller dwellings raise quality and renovation challenges (notably seismic retrofitting).

Addressing vacant dwellings. Managing the millions of 'akiya' (rehabilitation, demolition, transfer, safety) is a major planning challenge, linked to depopulation and ageing.

Urban concentration vs rural decline. The growing concentration of the population in major metropolises (Tokyo) and the decline of rural areas raise the question of territorial balance in housing and services.

Renovation and quality. Improving the quality and performance (energy efficiency, seismic safety) of an ageing stock that is expected to last longer is a key challenge.

Housing and ageing. Adapting housing to an ageing population (accessibility, home care) is a growing challenge in the world's oldest society (see the Health category).

Open questions. Three issues will shape the period: (1) addressing vacant dwellings; (2) managing urban concentration and rural decline; (3) adapting housing to an ageing population.

In context, Japan presents an atypical and affordable housing market, but one marked by vacancy linked to depopulation.

Three lessons. (1) Ownership: around the average. At ≈ 61%, Japan's homeownership rate is close to France (≈ 58%), below the United Kingdom and the United States (≈ 65%).

(2) Preserved affordability. Thanks to abundant construction and building depreciation, Japan has contained prices better than most major Western metropolises — a counter-model often cited.

(3) Vacancy, a singular challenge. The level of vacant dwellings, linked to depopulation, is a problem specific to Japan (and soon other ageing countries), in contrast to Western supply shortage crises.