Security — United States · Synthesis

A high but declining homicide rate. The homicide rate stands at around 5.7-6.0 per 100,000 inhabitants (FBI, 2023), in clear decline after the 2020-2021 peak (≈ 6.8), which had followed the pandemic. This level remains several times higher than that of the other major wealthy countries — the most striking feature of American security.

Firearms, a determining factor. The United States has more firearms than inhabitants. Firearm deaths reach about 48,000 per year (CDC), a majority of them suicides and the rest mostly homicides. Firearm mortality is a public-health issue as much as a security one, with no equivalent in the developed world.

Violent crime in recent decline. After the 2020-2021 rise, homicides and violent crime fell in 2022-2024 (FBI), returning toward pre-pandemic levels. Trends vary sharply from one city and one state to another.

Property crime and data fragmentation. Thefts and burglaries follow mixed trends. The American statistical system, based on the voluntary reporting of local police forces (transition to NIBRS), has coverage gaps in certain years, which calls for caution in interpreting the series.

Sense of insecurity and perception. As elsewhere, the sense of insecurity does not always track the evolution of the facts: the perception of rising crime persisted in opinion even as homicides declined — a gap documented by surveys (Gallup).

The debate over firearms. Gun regulation (background checks, assault weapons, "red flag laws") is one of the most divisive debates in the country, framed by the Supreme Court's interpretation of the Second Amendment. It is the main long-term determinant of the level of lethal violence.

Consolidating the decline in crime. Maintaining the post-2021 decline in homicides requires local policies (prevention, policing, targeted interventions on violence). Approaches vary sharply by city and state.

Mental health and suicides. With the majority of firearm deaths being suicides, suicide-prevention and mental-health policies (see Health category) are a central dimension, often absent from the debate focused on homicides.

Data quality. Improving the coverage of the FBI's NIBRS system conditions the reliability of national monitoring. Year-on-year comparisons must take into account changes in method and in local-police participation.

The open questions. Three issues will shape the period: (1) reducing firearm violence, a politically stalled topic; (2) consolidating the decline in homicides; (3) addressing the mental-health dimension of firearm deaths.

Placed in their environment, the United States stands out for lethal violence several times higher than that of the other major wealthy countries, a gap almost entirely attributable to firearms.

Three takeaways. (1) Homicides: a major gap. At ≈ 6 / 100,000, the American rate is about five times that of France (≈ 1.2), Germany (≈ 0.9) or the United Kingdom (≈ 1), and about three times that of Canada (≈ 2).

(2) Firearms, the explanatory variable. International comparisons (UNODC, WHO) show that the gap concentrates on firearm homicides; for other forms of violence, the United States is closer to its peers.

(3) Common trends. The decline in crime since 2021 and the rise of digital fraud are dynamics shared with other developed countries; the American specificity remains firearm violence.