Javier Milei, two years on: the record of a shock therapy
Since December 2023, the budget “chainsaw” has brought monthly inflation down from 25% to under 2%. What has improved, what has worsened, and were the campaign promises kept?
Scope: Argentina, from 10 December 2023 to 12 November 2026; comparison with the world over the same periods where a world total exists.
Key points
- Inflation gave way, without disappearing. The monthly price rise went from 25.5% in December 2023 to 1.7% in August 2026; over a year, from 211% to 33.5%. Prices were still multiplied by 4.4 since November 2023 (+336%).
- The budget is back in balance. According to the IMF, the general government primary balance goes from −2.8% of GDP in 2023 to +2.2% in 2024 and +1.3% in 2025; the overall balance from −5.3% to +0.5%, then −0.2%. Debt, swollen by the devaluation (153% of GDP in 2023), falls back to 80% in 2025.
- Poverty jumped, then fell back. It rose from 41.7% of the population in the second half of 2023 to 52.9% in the first half of 2024, then fell to 28.2% at the end of 2025; it is back up to 32.3% in the first half of 2026.
- Activity remains choppy. INDEC’s monthly indicator falls 2.8% until March 2024, then grows to a peak in March 2026, then drops again: in July 2026 it is only 2.2% above its November 2023 level.
- Unemployment rose: from 5.7% in the third quarter of 2023 to 7.9% in the second quarter of 2026 (31 urban areas, not seasonally adjusted).
The record in figures, period by period
Pick a period: each indicator is read between the last figure published before the term began and the last one before it ended (or the latest one for a term still running), and compared with the world over exactly the same window.
9 improved, 1 worsened, 0 stable, 1 without value judgement
How to read the charts: Argentina (blue) and the world (grey) start from the same point at the beginning of the selected period, 0 for a rate (change in points), 100 for a level. Light line: before the period. Bands: the terms of office.
Economy
- Economic activity (EMAE)Improved+2.2%World: n/a
146.4 (Nov 2023) → 149.6 (Jul 2026)
latest published figure
INDEC monthly economic activity estimator, seasonally adjusted (2004 = 100): the leading GDP indicator. No comparable world total.
See the card: Monthly economic activity estimator (EMAE)Source: INDEC datos.gob.ar 143.3_NO_PR_2004_A_31
- Real GDP per capitaImproved+0.1%World: +7.3%
$27,825 PPP (2022) → $27,847 PPP (2025)
worse than the world · latest published figure
In constant purchasing-power-parity dollars.
See the card: GDP per capitaSource: World Bank NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD
Jobs
- Unemployment rate (EPH)Worsened+2.2 ptsWorld: n/a
5.7% (Q3 2023) → 7.9% (Q2 2026)
latest published figure
INDEC permanent household survey, 31 urban areas, quarterly, not seasonally adjusted (the first quarter is seasonally higher).
See the card: Unemployment rate (ILO)Source: INDEC datos.gob.ar 42.3_EPH_PUNTUATAL_0_M_30
- Employment rate, aged 15 and overImproved+0.2 ptWorld: +0.5 pt
57.3% (2022) → 57.5% (2025)
worse than the world · latest published figure
ILO modelled estimate. Its fall also reflects ageing.
See the card: Employment rate (15-64)Source: World Bank SL.EMP.TOTL.SP.ZS
Prices and purchasing power
- Consumer prices (CPI)No judgement+336.0%World: n/a
2,816.1 (Nov 2023) → 12,276.8 (Aug 2026)
latest published figure
Cumulative rise of INDEC’s national consumer price index (December 2016 = 100). No comparable world total.
See the card: Inflation (CPI)Source: INDEC datos.gob.ar 148.3_INIVELNAL_DICI_M_26
Public finances
- Budget balance (% of GDP)Improved+3.7 ptsWorld: n/a
−3.8% (2022) → −0.2% (2025)
latest published figure
General government balance according to the IMF (World Economic Outlook), actual years only. Negative = deficit.
- Primary balance (% of GDP)Improved+3.0 ptsWorld: n/a
−1.7% (2022) → 1.3% (2025)
latest published figure
Public balance excluding interest on the debt, according to the IMF, actual years only. Negative = primary deficit.
- Public debt (% of GDP)Improved−4.2 ptsWorld: n/a
84.3% (2022) → 80.1% (2025)
latest published figure
General government gross debt according to the IMF, actual years only.
Social cohesion and education
- Poverty (official line)Improved−7.8 ptsWorld: n/a
40.1% (Q2 2023) → 32.3% (Q2 2026)
latest published figure
Share of people below INDEC’s poverty line (total basic basket), 31 urban areas, by half-year (shown at the half-year’s last quarter).
See the card: Poverty rateSource: INDEC datos.gob.ar 64.2_POBLACION_NUA_0_0_34_74
- Life expectancy at birthImproved+1.7 yearWorld: +0.5 year
75.8 years (2022) → 77.5 years (2024)
better than the world · latest published figure
See the card: Life expectancySource: World Bank SP.DYN.LE00.IN
Climate and energy
- Greenhouse gas emissionsImproved−4.9%World: +3.7%
372 Mt (2022) → 354 Mt (2025)
better than the world · latest published figure
Excluding land use (LULUCF), million tonnes CO₂ equivalent (EDGAR, European Commission, 2026 edition).
Reading: “Improved” / “Worsened” gives the direction of the change for a citizen (less unemployment, more jobs…), not a cause. An indicator whose level is a political choice (spending, revenue) is shown without judgement. A change whose window covers less than half of the span between its two figures is not shown (too early to judge). Sources: INDEC, IMF, World Bank, EDGAR, data extracted on 12 November 2026.
Show the full table of indicators for the selected period
| Indicator | Start of period | End of period | Change | World (same period) | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic activity (EMAE) | 146.4 (Nov 2023) | 149.6 (Jul 2026) | +2.2% | – | Improved |
| Real GDP per capita | $27,825 PPP (2022) | $27,847 PPP (2025) | +0.1% | +7.3% | Improved |
| Unemployment rate (EPH) | 5.7% (Q3 2023) | 7.9% (Q2 2026) | +2.2 pts | – | Worsened |
| Employment rate, aged 15 and over | 57.3% (2022) | 57.5% (2025) | +0.2 pt | +0.5 pt | Improved |
| Consumer prices (CPI) | 2,816.1 (Nov 2023) | 12,276.8 (Aug 2026) | +336.0% | – | No judgement |
| Budget balance (% of GDP) | −3.8% (2022) | −0.2% (2025) | +3.7 pts | – | Improved |
| Primary balance (% of GDP) | −1.7% (2022) | 1.3% (2025) | +3.0 pts | – | Improved |
| Public debt (% of GDP) | 84.3% (2022) | 80.1% (2025) | −4.2 pts | – | Improved |
| Poverty (official line) | 40.1% (Q2 2023) | 32.3% (Q2 2026) | −7.8 pts | – | Improved |
| Life expectancy at birth | 75.8 years (2022) | 77.5 years (2024) | +1.7 year | +0.5 year | Improved |
| Greenhouse gas emissions | 372 Mt (2022) | 354 Mt (2025) | −4.9% | +3.7% | Improved |
Strengths and weaknesses
What the data say since taking office (last figure before December 2023 → latest published figure). The figures come from the table above.
What improved
- Disinflation. Monthly price rise from 25.5% (December 2023) to 1.7% (August 2026); over a year, from 211% to 33.5%.
- Public accounts. Primary surplus of 2.2% of GDP in 2024 and 1.3% in 2025 (IMF), after primary deficits every year from 2015 to 2023; debt cut from 153% to 80% of GDP between 2023 and 2025.
- Poverty, over the period. From 40.1% in the first half of 2023 to 32.3% in the first half of 2026, after a peak of 52.9% in early 2024.
- Emissions. −4.9% between 2022 and 2025, while they rose 3.7% worldwide.
What worsened
- Unemployment. From 5.7% to 7.9% of the labour force (third quarter of 2023 → second quarter of 2026).
- Stagnating activity. Only +2.2% in two and a half years for the monthly activity indicator, with a relapse since March 2026; GDP per capita almost flat between 2022 and 2025 (+0.1%) while the world gains 7.3%.
- Inflation still high. Even slowed, the price rise still reaches 33.5% over a year in August 2026.
- The social cost of the adjustment. More than half of the population below the poverty line in the first half of 2024 (52.9%), and a rise back to 32.3% in the first half of 2026.
The promises: kept or not?
The commitments of the 2023 presidential campaign (La Libertad Avanza), and what became of them according to the documents cited as sources.
2023 presidential campaign (La Libertad Avanza)
- KeptPublic finances
Eliminate the budget deficit (“zero deficit”) through an adjustment of the national public sector worth 5 points of GDP, announced in the inauguration speech of 10 December 2023 (“no hay plata”, there is no money).
According to the Ministry of Economy, the national public sector ran a financial surplus (after interest) of 0.3% of GDP in 2024, the first since 2010, with a primary surplus of 1.8%; then a financial surplus of about 0.2% of GDP in 2025 (primary 1.4%). From January to September 2026 the cumulative financial surplus is about 0.3% of GDP (primary 1.2%).[1],[6],[7],[8]
- KeptPublic spending
Cut public spending (the “chainsaw”, “motosierra”).
According to Ministry of Economy data compiled by Chequeado, national public spending from January to October 2025 was 27.7% lower in real terms than in the same period of 2023. Capital spending (including public works) fell a further 29.3% in real terms between 2024 and 2025.[3],[2]
- Not keptPublic spending
Make the adjustment fall “almost entirely on the State and not on the private sector” (inauguration speech, 10 December 2023).
According to Chequeado’s analysis (December 2025), nearly 75% of the spending cut fell on items that go to the private sector (pensions, transfers, subsidies) and only about one peso of savings in four came from the running costs of the State.[1],[2]
- In progressPrices
End “the cancer of inflation” by stopping the financing of the Treasury through money printing.
According to INDEC, consumer prices rose 25.5% in December 2023 and 211.4% over 2023, then 117.8% in 2024 and 31.5% in 2025 (December on December). In September 2026 the monthly rise is 1.9% and the year-on-year rise 33.4% (31.5% in December 2025).[2],[1],[9],[10],[11]
- KeptGovernment
Cut the number of ministries and merge education, culture, labour and social development into a Ministry of Human Capital.
Decree 8/2023, published on 11 December 2023, sets the government at nine ministers, including Human Capital (against 18 ministries before). The Ministry of Infrastructure is absorbed by the Ministry of Economy in 2024 and a Ministry of Deregulation and State Transformation is created in July 2024: the government still has nine ministries.[4],[15],[32]
- Not keptCurrency
Dollarise the economy, a central measure of the 2023 campaign.
Dollarisation has not been implemented. In March 2024 Javier Milei postponed it until after the 2025 elections; in April 2025 the peso moved to a floating band, still in force in 2026 with limits indexed to the inflation published by INDEC. Chequeado rated the promise “delayed” in December 2025.[5],[32],[21],[2]
- Not keptCurrency
Close the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
The central bank is still operating in November 2026: it stopped financing the Treasury through money creation and runs exchange-rate policy (floating band since April 2025, agreement with the US Treasury in October 2025). In October 2024 Javier Milei said it could close once “endogenous dollarisation” had progressed; Chequeado rates the promise “delayed”.[5],[2],[21],[22]
- Partly keptForeign exchange
Lift the “cepo”, the foreign-exchange controls.
On 11 April 2025 the central bank removed the US$200 monthly purchase limit and the other restrictions for individuals, as well as the exporters’ “blend” dollar. For companies, access to the foreign-exchange market to pay dividends to non-resident shareholders is open only for profits of fiscal years starting in 2025.[20],[5]
- In progressState companies
Privatise the loss-making State companies.
The Ley Bases (2024) authorises the privatisation or concession of six companies (Energía Argentina, Intercargo, AySA, Belgrano Cargas, the rail operator SOFSE, Corredores Viales), Aerolíneas Argentinas and others having been removed from the original bill. The engineering firm IMPSA was privatised in 2025. In October 2026 the Ministry of Economy awarded 90% of AySA (Buenos Aires water) to a consortium for US$340.2 million, the contract to be signed by 13 November 2026.[2],[17],[32],[30]
- KeptLabour
Carry out a programme to “modernise the labour market”.
The labour title of DNU 70/2023 was declared unconstitutional on appeal in January 2024. Law 27,802 on “labour modernisation”, passed by Congress on 27 February 2026 and promulgated by Decree 137/2026 (published on 6 March 2026), caps severance pay, gives company agreements priority over sector agreements and requires 75% minimum service in essential services during strikes.[2],[32],[18],[19]
- Partly keptTaxes
Cut taxes and simplify the tax system, including export duties (“retenciones”).
The PAIS tax on foreign-currency purchases and imports ended on 23 December 2024 without extension. Chequeado counts more than 19 taxes eliminated or reduced by end-2025. Export duties on soybeans went from 26% to 24% in December 2025; Decree 423/2026 schedules a gradual cut from January 2027 to December 2028 without abolishing them, and Decree 566/2026 eliminates those on industrial products by June 2027.[2],[29],[28],[26],[27]
The context: the events of the period
A record is not read out of context: the events that marked the term.
December 12, 2023
Devaluation and first emergency measures
Two days after the inauguration, Economy Minister Luis Caputo moves the official exchange rate from 400 to 800 pesos per dollar, followed by a scheduled depreciation of 2% a month (“crawling peg”).[32]
December 20, 2023
Decree of necessity and urgency 70/2023
The decree “Bases para la reconstrucción de la economía argentina”, published in the Official Gazette on 21 December 2023, repeals or amends more than 300 rules (labour, trade, rents, State companies). Its Title IV on labour is declared unconstitutional by the National Labour Appeals Chamber on 30 January 2024.[16],[32]
June 27, 2024
The “Ley Bases” is passed
After being sent back to committee in February 2024, Congress passes Law 27,742 “de Bases y Puntos de Partida para la Libertad de los Argentinos” (published on 8 July 2024): a one-year administrative, economic, financial and energy emergency, powers delegated to the executive, an incentive regime for large investments (RIGI) and a list of six State companies to be privatised or put under concession.[17],[32]
April 11, 2025
IMF programme and a floating band for the peso
The IMF Executive Board approves a 48-month, US$20 billion extended arrangement, US$12 billion of it disbursed at once. The same day, the central bank lets the peso float between 1,000 and 1,400 pesos per dollar and lifts the foreign-exchange restrictions on individuals.[24],[20]
October 20, 2025
Exchange-rate agreement with the US Treasury
The central bank and the US Department of the Treasury sign an exchange-rate stabilisation agreement (currency swap) of up to US$20 billion. The transactions of the fourth quarter of 2025 are settled in December 2025.[22],[23]
October 26, 2025
Midterm legislative elections
La Libertad Avanza comes first with 40.66% of the vote for the Chamber of Deputies, ahead of Fuerza Patria (33.7%), and wins 64 of the Deputies seats and 13 of the Senate seats up for election.[33]
June 10, 2026
S&P upgrades the sovereign rating
S&P raises Argentina’s long-term rating from CCC+ to B-, stable outlook, citing the fiscal surplus, lower inflation and better access to financing. According to the IMF (May 2026), real GDP fell 1.3% in 2024 and grew 4.4% in 2025.[31],[25]
September 24, 2026
The poverty rate in the first half of 2026
According to INDEC, 32.3% of people in the 31 urban areas surveyed lived below the poverty line in the first half of 2026, against 41.7% in the second half of 2023 and 52.9% in the first half of 2024.[14],[12],[13]
The reforms Citoyen follows
The major reforms of the period that have their own detailed factsheet (timeline, measures, debate, indicators to follow).
Method
Which value at the start and end of a term? The last figure whose period had ended on that date. For a term that began on 10 December 2023: November 2023 for a monthly series, the 3rd quarter of 2023 for a quarterly one, 2022 for an annual one (2023 was not over: annual series therefore include the last year of the previous government). A term still running ends on the latest published figure. A change is shown only if the selected period covers at least half of the span between its two figures.
Why compare with the world? Part of the changes comes from common shocks (Covid, energy prices, interest rates). The change of the aggregate (world) over the same window is a benchmark: “better” means the country did better than that reference over the period, whatever the cause.
What this record does not say. It measures changes, not causes: an indicator that improves during a term is not necessarily due to the policies pursued, and vice versa. Activity, unemployment, prices and poverty are INDEC’s national series: there is no comparable world total, so those rows are shown without comparison. The balance and debt are those of general government according to the IMF (provinces included); they differ from the national public sector balance announced by the government. Debt as a % of GDP jumped in 2023 with the peso devaluation, then fell back as nominal GDP rose.
Sources
- Indicators. INDEC (EMAE activity, permanent household survey, price index, poverty), through the datos.gob.ar time-series API; IMF (World Economic Outlook, actual years); World Bank (GDP per capita, ILO-estimated employment, life expectancy); EDGAR (emissions, 2026 edition). Argentina and world, extracted on 12 November 2026 by scripts/analyses/build-mandate-data.py.INDECIMF
- Term dates. Casa Rosada (Citoyen’s terms-of-office dataset).Casa Rosada
- [1] Texto completo del discurso de Javier Milei en las escalinatas del Congreso (10 December 2023) · El Cronista · secondary source
- [2] A 2 años de Javier Milei como presidente: una por una, las 20 promesas verificadas y qué cumplimiento tienen · Chequeado · secondary source
- [3] Javier Milei y su promesa a 2 años como presidente: “Vamos a bajar el gasto público” · Chequeado · secondary source
- [4] Javier Milei y su promesa a 2 años como presidente: “Vamos a crear el Ministerio de Capital Humano” · Chequeado · secondary source
- [5] A year in, Milei yet to fulfill key economic campaign promises · Buenos Aires Times · secondary source
- [6] El Sector Público Nacional registró superávit financiero anual por primera vez desde el 2010 · Gouvernement argentin (argentina.gob.ar)
- [7] En el año 2025 el Sector Público Nacional registró un superávit financiero de $ 1.453.819 millones · Gouvernement argentin (argentina.gob.ar)
- [8] En septiembre el Sector Público Nacional continuó generando resultado financiero superavitario (septembre 2026) · Gouvernement argentin (argentina.gob.ar)
- [9] Índice de precios al consumidor (IPC), diciembre de 2023 · INDEC
- [10] Índice de precios al consumidor (IPC), diciembre de 2024 · INDEC
- [11] Índice de precios al consumidor (IPC), septiembre de 2026 · INDEC
- [12] Incidencia de la pobreza y la indigencia en 31 aglomerados urbanos, segundo semestre de 2023 · INDEC
- [13] Incidencia de la pobreza y la indigencia en 31 aglomerados urbanos, primer semestre de 2024 · INDEC
- [14] Incidencia de la pobreza y la indigencia en 31 aglomerados urbanos, primer semestre de 2026 · INDEC
- [15] Decreto DNU 8/2023, Ley de Ministerios · Información Legislativa (argentina.gob.ar)
- [16] Decreto DNU 70/2023, Bases para la reconstrucción de la economía argentina · Información Legislativa (argentina.gob.ar)
- [17] Ley 27.742, Ley de Bases y Puntos de Partida para la Libertad de los Argentinos · Información Legislativa (argentina.gob.ar)
- [18] Decreto 137/2026, Ley de Modernización Laboral (promulgation de la loi 27.802) · Información Legislativa (argentina.gob.ar)
- [19] El Gobierno promulgó la reforma laboral y la nueva ley comienza a regir desde este viernes para el empleo privado · Infobae · secondary source
- [20] Beginning of stage 3 of the economic program with relaxation of currency restrictions and an exchange rate to float within a band · Banco Central de la República Argentina
- [21] Exchange rate band regime · Banco Central de la República Argentina
- [22] The BCRA and the U.S. Department of the Treasury sign a USD20 billion agreement for exchange rate stabilization · Banco Central de la República Argentina
- [23] The BCRA settled the transactions with the U.S. Department of the Treasury · Banco Central de la República Argentina
- [24] IMF Executive Board Approves 48-month US$20 billion Extended Arrangement for Argentina · Fonds monétaire international
- [25] IMF Executive Board Completes Second Review of the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Argentina · Fonds monétaire international
- [26] El Gobierno Nacional oficializó una nueva reducción de los derechos de exportación al campo (décret 423/2026) · Gouvernement argentin (argentina.gob.ar)
- [27] El Gobierno Nacional elimina los derechos de exportación a los productos industriales (décret 566/2026) · Gouvernement argentin (argentina.gob.ar)
- [28] El gobierno bajó las retenciones con un costo fiscal de u$s 511 millones · La Capital (Rosario) · secondary source
- [29] El 23 de diciembre cae el impuesto PAIS: el Gobierno informó que no pedirá su renovación · Los Andes · secondary source
- [30] Avanzan las privatizaciones: el gobierno de Javier Milei adjudicó la venta de AySA por u$s340 millones · Ámbito · secondary source
- [31] Caputo cheers as S&P upgrades Argentina’s debt rating to ‘B-’ · Buenos Aires Times · secondary source
- [32] Presidency of Javier Milei · Wikipedia · secondary source
- [33] 2025 Argentine legislative election · Wikipedia · secondary source