Rates up, prices down: the turn of Australia’s housing market
After a year of cuts, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its rate several times in 2026, and private indices report falling prices for several months. Rates, prices, rents, debt and building: where the market stands, and where the 1.2 million homes target stands.
Citoyen
Scope: Australia, whole country: cash rate and banks’ standard variable rate (Reserve Bank), quarterly house price indices (BIS, from the ABS), price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios (OECD), rents in the consumer price index (ABS), dwellings commenced and completed (ABS), household credit (BIS).
Key points
Cash rate4.60%Oct. 2026, after 4 hikes in 2026; 3.60% at the low
Standard variable mortgage rate9.02%Oct. 2026, against 8.02% at the low
House prices over a quarter−0.1%Q2 2026, first fall since Q1 2023
Shortfall against the Accord pace123,990homes completed in Q3 2024 – Q2 2026, against 240,000 a year targeted
- A fast tightening. The Reserve Bank raised its rate 4 times in 2026, from 3.60% to 4.60%. Banks’ standard variable rate for owner-occupiers reaches 9.02% in Oct. 2026.
- Prices have just turned. After a rise of 8.3% over a year, the quarterly house price index fell 0.1% in Q2 2026, its first fall since Q1 2023.
- Homes are expensive relative to incomes. Relative to disposable income per person, prices stand at index 124.9 in Q1 2026 (2015 = 100), and at 133.9 relative to rents.
- Rents are slowing but still rising: 3.6% over a year in Q3 2026, against 7.8% in Q1 2024.
- The building target is slipping away. 356,010 homes were completed in Q3 2024 – Q2 2026, 123,990 fewer than at the pace of 240,000 a year implied by the target of 1,200,000 homes in five years.
How to read these figures
The cash rate is the overnight rate target set by the Reserve Bank (monthly average on the chart); the standard variable rate is the rate banks advertise for owner-occupier mortgages: most borrowers pay less, after discounts. House prices are the quarterly index published by the Bank for International Settlements from the Australian Bureau of Statistics; private monthly indices, more recent, are not used here.
The National Housing Accord targets 1,200,000 new homes over five years from 1 July 2024, an average of 240,000 a year. Citoyen compares with this pace the homes completed recorded by the ABS (original data, grouped by financial year from July to June); the official count of the target may use another measure.
1. Rate rises are back
After 3 cuts in 2025, the Reserve Bank raised its rate again from Feb. 2026. Banks passed each rise on to their standard variable rate.
Cash rate and standard variable mortgage rate
Reserve Bank of Australia: overnight cash rate target (monthly average) and banks’ standard variable rate for owner-occupiers. Latest month: Oct. 2026.
- Standard variable rate
- Cash rate
Source:Reserve Bank of Australia (via DBnomics)
Show the chart data
| Period | Cash rate | Standard variable rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jan. 2000 | 5.00% | 6.80% |
| Feb. 2000 | 5.48% | 7.30% |
| Mar. 2000 | 5.50% | 7.30% |
| Apr. 2000 | 5.72% | 7.55% |
| May 2000 | 5.98% | 7.80% |
| Jun. 2000 | 6.00% | 7.80% |
| Jul. 2000 | 6.00% | 7.81% |
| Aug. 2000 | 6.24% | 8.07% |
| Sep. 2000 | 6.25% | 8.07% |
| Oct. 2000 | 6.25% | 8.07% |
| Nov. 2000 | 6.25% | 8.07% |
| Dec. 2000 | 6.25% | 8.07% |
| Jan. 2001 | 6.25% | 8.07% |
| Feb. 2001 | 5.85% | 7.57% |
| Mar. 2001 | 5.55% | 7.32% |
| Apr. 2001 | 5.06% | 6.82% |
| May 2001 | 5.00% | 6.82% |
| Jun. 2001 | 5.00% | 6.82% |
| Jul. 2001 | 5.00% | 6.82% |
| Aug. 2001 | 5.00% | 6.82% |
| Sep. 2001 | 4.78% | 6.57% |
| Oct. 2001 | 4.52% | 6.32% |
| Nov. 2001 | 4.50% | 6.32% |
| Dec. 2001 | 4.28% | 6.07% |
| Jan. 2002 | 4.25% | 6.07% |
| Feb. 2002 | 4.25% | 6.07% |
| Mar. 2002 | 4.25% | 6.07% |
| Apr. 2002 | 4.25% | 6.07% |
| May 2002 | 4.45% | 6.32% |
| Jun. 2002 | 4.72% | 6.57% |
| Jul. 2002 | 4.75% | 6.57% |
| Aug. 2002 | 4.75% | 6.57% |
| Sep. 2002 | 4.75% | 6.57% |
| Oct. 2002 | 4.75% | 6.57% |
| Nov. 2002 | 4.75% | 6.57% |
| Dec. 2002 | 4.75% | 6.57% |
| Jan. 2003 | 4.75% | 6.57% |
| Feb. 2003 | 4.75% | 6.57% |
| Mar. 2003 | 4.75% | 6.57% |
| Apr. 2003 | 4.75% | 6.57% |
| May 2003 | 4.75% | 6.57% |
| Jun. 2003 | 4.75% | 6.57% |
| Jul. 2003 | 4.75% | 6.57% |
| Aug. 2003 | 4.75% | 6.57% |
| Sep. 2003 | 4.75% | 6.57% |
| Oct. 2003 | 4.75% | 6.57% |
| Nov. 2003 | 4.98% | 6.82% |
| Dec. 2003 | 5.23% | 7.07% |
| Jan. 2004 | 5.25% | 7.07% |
| Feb. 2004 | 5.25% | 7.07% |
| Mar. 2004 | 5.25% | 7.07% |
| Apr. 2004 | 5.25% | 7.07% |
| May 2004 | 5.25% | 7.07% |
| Jun. 2004 | 5.25% | 7.07% |
| Jul. 2004 | 5.25% | 7.07% |
| Aug. 2004 | 5.25% | 7.07% |
| Sep. 2004 | 5.25% | 7.07% |
| Oct. 2004 | 5.25% | 7.07% |
| Nov. 2004 | 5.25% | 7.07% |
| Dec. 2004 | 5.25% | 7.07% |
| Jan. 2005 | 5.25% | 7.07% |
| Feb. 2005 | 5.25% | 7.07% |
| Mar. 2005 | 5.49% | 7.32% |
| Apr. 2005 | 5.50% | 7.32% |
| May 2005 | 5.50% | 7.32% |
| Jun. 2005 | 5.50% | 7.32% |
| Jul. 2005 | 5.50% | 7.32% |
| Aug. 2005 | 5.50% | 7.32% |
| Sep. 2005 | 5.50% | 7.32% |
| Oct. 2005 | 5.50% | 7.32% |
| Nov. 2005 | 5.50% | 7.32% |
| Dec. 2005 | 5.50% | 7.32% |
| Jan. 2006 | 5.50% | 7.32% |
| Feb. 2006 | 5.50% | 7.32% |
| Mar. 2006 | 5.50% | 7.32% |
| Apr. 2006 | 5.50% | 7.32% |
| May 2006 | 5.73% | 7.57% |
| Jun. 2006 | 5.75% | 7.57% |
| Jul. 2006 | 5.75% | 7.57% |
| Aug. 2006 | 5.99% | 7.82% |
| Sep. 2006 | 6.00% | 7.82% |
| Oct. 2006 | 6.00% | 7.82% |
| Nov. 2006 | 6.19% | 8.07% |
| Dec. 2006 | 6.25% | 8.07% |
| Jan. 2007 | 6.25% | 8.07% |
| Feb. 2007 | 6.25% | 8.07% |
| Mar. 2007 | 6.25% | 8.07% |
| Apr. 2007 | 6.25% | 8.07% |
| May 2007 | 6.25% | 8.07% |
| Jun. 2007 | 6.25% | 8.07% |
| Jul. 2007 | 6.25% | 8.07% |
| Aug. 2007 | 6.45% | 8.32% |
| Sep. 2007 | 6.50% | 8.32% |
| Oct. 2007 | 6.50% | 8.32% |
| Nov. 2007 | 6.70% | 8.57% |
| Dec. 2007 | 6.75% | 8.57% |
| Jan. 2008 | 6.75% | 8.72% |
| Feb. 2008 | 6.96% | 8.99% |
| Mar. 2008 | 7.22% | 9.34% |
| Apr. 2008 | 7.25% | 9.44% |
| May 2008 | 7.25% | 9.46% |
| Jun. 2008 | 7.25% | 9.46% |
| Jul. 2008 | 7.25% | 9.62% |
| Aug. 2008 | 7.25% | 9.62% |
| Sep. 2008 | 7.02% | 9.36% |
| Oct. 2008 | 6.18% | 8.34% |
| Nov. 2008 | 5.33% | 7.73% |
| Dec. 2008 | 4.35% | 6.84% |
| Jan. 2009 | 4.25% | 6.84% |
| Feb. 2009 | 3.35% | 5.84% |
| Mar. 2009 | 3.25% | 5.84% |
| Apr. 2009 | 3.06% | 5.76% |
| May 2009 | 3.00% | 5.76% |
| Jun. 2009 | 3.00% | 5.78% |
| Jul. 2009 | 3.00% | 5.78% |
| Aug. 2009 | 3.00% | 5.78% |
| Sep. 2009 | 3.00% | 5.78% |
| Oct. 2009 | 3.21% | 6.03% |
| Nov. 2009 | 3.48% | 6.28% |
| Dec. 2009 | 3.74% | 6.64% |
| Jan. 2010 | 3.75% | 6.64% |
| Feb. 2010 | 3.75% | 6.64% |
| Mar. 2010 | 3.98% | 6.89% |
| Apr. 2010 | 4.22% | 7.14% |
| May 2010 | 4.48% | 7.39% |
| Jun. 2010 | 4.50% | 7.39% |
| Jul. 2010 | 4.50% | 7.39% |
| Aug. 2010 | 4.50% | 7.39% |
| Sep. 2010 | 4.50% | 7.39% |
| Oct. 2010 | 4.50% | 7.39% |
| Nov. 2010 | 4.73% | 7.79% |
| Dec. 2010 | 4.75% | 7.79% |
| Jan. 2011 | 4.75% | 7.79% |
| Feb. 2011 | 4.75% | 7.79% |
| Mar. 2011 | 4.75% | 7.79% |
| Apr. 2011 | 4.75% | 7.79% |
| May 2011 | 4.75% | 7.79% |
| Jun. 2011 | 4.75% | 7.79% |
| Jul. 2011 | 4.75% | 7.79% |
| Aug. 2011 | 4.75% | 7.79% |
| Sep. 2011 | 4.75% | 7.79% |
| Oct. 2011 | 4.75% | 7.79% |
| Nov. 2011 | 4.51% | 7.55% |
| Dec. 2011 | 4.30% | 7.30% |
| Jan. 2012 | 4.25% | 7.30% |
| Feb. 2012 | 4.25% | 7.39% |
| Mar. 2012 | 4.25% | 7.39% |
| Apr. 2012 | 4.25% | 7.40% |
| May 2012 | 3.77% | 7.04% |
| Jun. 2012 | 3.54% | 6.83% |
| Jul. 2012 | 3.50% | 6.83% |
| Aug. 2012 | 3.50% | 6.83% |
| Sep. 2012 | 3.50% | 6.83% |
| Oct. 2012 | 3.27% | 6.64% |
| Nov. 2012 | 3.25% | 6.64% |
| Dec. 2012 | 3.03% | 6.44% |
| Jan. 2013 | 3.00% | 6.44% |
| Feb. 2013 | 3.00% | 6.44% |
| Mar. 2013 | 3.00% | 6.44% |
| Apr. 2013 | 3.00% | 6.44% |
| May 2013 | 2.80% | 6.18% |
| Jun. 2013 | 2.75% | 6.18% |
| Jul. 2013 | 2.75% | 6.18% |
| Aug. 2013 | 2.55% | 5.93% |
| Sep. 2013 | 2.50% | 5.93% |
| Oct. 2013 | 2.50% | 5.93% |
| Nov. 2013 | 2.50% | 5.93% |
| Dec. 2013 | 2.50% | 5.93% |
| Jan. 2014 | 2.50% | 5.93% |
| Feb. 2014 | 2.50% | 5.93% |
| Mar. 2014 | 2.50% | 5.93% |
| Apr. 2014 | 2.50% | 5.93% |
| May 2014 | 2.50% | 5.93% |
| Jun. 2014 | 2.50% | 5.93% |
| Jul. 2014 | 2.50% | 5.93% |
| Aug. 2014 | 2.50% | 5.93% |
| Sep. 2014 | 2.50% | 5.93% |
| Oct. 2014 | 2.50% | 5.93% |
| Nov. 2014 | 2.50% | 5.93% |
| Dec. 2014 | 2.50% | 5.93% |
| Jan. 2015 | 2.50% | 5.93% |
| Feb. 2015 | 2.28% | 5.67% |
| Mar. 2015 | 2.25% | 5.67% |
| Apr. 2015 | 2.25% | 5.67% |
| May 2015 | 2.04% | 5.46% |
| Jun. 2015 | 2.00% | 5.46% |
| Jul. 2015 | 2.00% | 5.45% |
| Aug. 2015 | 2.00% | 5.46% |
| Sep. 2015 | 2.00% | 5.46% |
| Oct. 2015 | 2.00% | 5.46% |
| Nov. 2015 | 2.00% | 5.63% |
| Dec. 2015 | 2.00% | 5.63% |
| Jan. 2016 | 2.00% | 5.63% |
| Feb. 2016 | 2.00% | 5.63% |
| Mar. 2016 | 2.00% | 5.63% |
| Apr. 2016 | 2.00% | 5.63% |
| May 2016 | 1.77% | 5.39% |
| Jun. 2016 | 1.75% | 5.39% |
| Jul. 2016 | 1.75% | 5.39% |
| Aug. 2016 | 1.52% | 5.26% |
| Sep. 2016 | 1.50% | 5.26% |
| Oct. 2016 | 1.50% | 5.26% |
| Nov. 2016 | 1.50% | 5.26% |
| Dec. 2016 | 1.50% | 5.26% |
| Jan. 2017 | 1.50% | 5.26% |
| Feb. 2017 | 1.50% | 5.26% |
| Mar. 2017 | 1.50% | 5.28% |
| Apr. 2017 | 1.50% | 5.28% |
| May 2017 | 1.50% | 5.29% |
| Jun. 2017 | 1.50% | 5.23% |
| Jul. 2017 | 1.50% | 5.22% |
| Aug. 2017 | 1.50% | 5.22% |
| Sep. 2017 | 1.50% | 5.22% |
| Oct. 2017 | 1.50% | 5.22% |
| Nov. 2017 | 1.50% | 5.22% |
| Dec. 2017 | 1.50% | 5.22% |
| Jan. 2018 | 1.50% | 5.22% |
| Feb. 2018 | 1.50% | 5.22% |
| Mar. 2018 | 1.50% | 5.22% |
| Apr. 2018 | 1.50% | 5.22% |
| May 2018 | 1.50% | 5.22% |
| Jun. 2018 | 1.50% | 5.22% |
| Jul. 2018 | 1.50% | 5.22% |
| Aug. 2018 | 1.50% | 5.22% |
| Sep. 2018 | 1.50% | 5.31% |
| Oct. 2018 | 1.50% | 5.34% |
| Nov. 2018 | 1.50% | 5.34% |
| Dec. 2018 | 1.50% | 5.34% |
| Jan. 2019 | 1.50% | 5.37% |
| Feb. 2019 | 1.50% | 5.37% |
| Mar. 2019 | 1.50% | 5.37% |
| Apr. 2019 | 1.50% | 5.37% |
| May 2019 | 1.50% | 5.37% |
| Jun. 2019 | 1.28% | 5.15% |
| Jul. 2019 | 1.02% | 4.94% |
| Aug. 2019 | 1.00% | 4.94% |
| Sep. 2019 | 1.00% | 4.94% |
| Oct. 2019 | 0.76% | 4.80% |
| Nov. 2019 | 0.75% | 4.80% |
| Dec. 2019 | 0.75% | 4.80% |
| Jan. 2020 | 0.75% | 4.80% |
| Feb. 2020 | 0.75% | 4.80% |
| Mar. 2020 | 0.43% | 4.52% |
| Apr. 2020 | 0.25% | 4.52% |
| May 2020 | 0.25% | 4.52% |
| Jun. 2020 | 0.25% | 4.52% |
| Jul. 2020 | 0.25% | 4.52% |
| Aug. 2020 | 0.25% | 4.52% |
| Sep. 2020 | 0.25% | 4.52% |
| Oct. 2020 | 0.25% | 4.52% |
| Nov. 2020 | 0.11% | 4.52% |
| Dec. 2020 | 0.10% | 4.52% |
| Jan. 2021 | 0.10% | 4.52% |
| Feb. 2021 | 0.10% | 4.52% |
| Mar. 2021 | 0.10% | 4.52% |
| Apr. 2021 | 0.10% | 4.52% |
| May 2021 | 0.10% | 4.52% |
| Jun. 2021 | 0.10% | 4.52% |
| Jul. 2021 | 0.10% | 4.52% |
| Aug. 2021 | 0.10% | 4.52% |
| Sep. 2021 | 0.10% | 4.52% |
| Oct. 2021 | 0.10% | 4.52% |
| Nov. 2021 | 0.10% | 4.52% |
| Dec. 2021 | 0.10% | 4.52% |
| Jan. 2022 | 0.10% | 4.52% |
| Feb. 2022 | 0.10% | 4.52% |
| Mar. 2022 | 0.10% | 4.52% |
| Apr. 2022 | 0.10% | 4.52% |
| May 2022 | 0.33% | 4.77% |
| Jun. 2022 | 0.73% | 5.27% |
| Jul. 2022 | 1.28% | 5.77% |
| Aug. 2022 | 1.81% | 6.27% |
| Sep. 2022 | 2.25% | 6.77% |
| Oct. 2022 | 2.58% | 7.02% |
| Nov. 2022 | 2.84% | 7.27% |
| Dec. 2022 | 3.05% | 7.52% |
| Jan. 2023 | 3.10% | 7.52% |
| Feb. 2023 | 3.29% | 7.77% |
| Mar. 2023 | 3.54% | 8.02% |
| Apr. 2023 | 3.60% | 8.02% |
| May 2023 | 3.83% | 8.27% |
| Jun. 2023 | 4.05% | 8.52% |
| Jul. 2023 | 4.10% | 8.52% |
| Aug. 2023 | 4.10% | 8.52% |
| Sep. 2023 | 4.10% | 8.52% |
| Oct. 2023 | 4.10% | 8.52% |
| Nov. 2023 | 4.29% | 8.77% |
| Dec. 2023 | 4.35% | 8.77% |
| Jan. 2024 | 4.35% | 8.77% |
| Feb. 2024 | 4.35% | 8.77% |
| Mar. 2024 | 4.35% | 8.77% |
| Apr. 2024 | 4.35% | 8.77% |
| May 2024 | 4.35% | 8.77% |
| Jun. 2024 | 4.35% | 8.77% |
| Jul. 2024 | 4.35% | 8.77% |
| Aug. 2024 | 4.35% | 8.77% |
| Sep. 2024 | 4.35% | 8.77% |
| Oct. 2024 | 4.35% | 8.77% |
| Nov. 2024 | 4.35% | 8.77% |
| Dec. 2024 | 4.35% | 8.77% |
| Jan. 2025 | 4.35% | 8.77% |
| Feb. 2025 | 4.25% | 8.62% |
| Mar. 2025 | 4.10% | 8.52% |
| Apr. 2025 | 4.10% | 8.52% |
| May 2025 | 4.01% | 8.37% |
| Jun. 2025 | 3.85% | 8.27% |
| Jul. 2025 | 3.85% | 8.27% |
| Aug. 2025 | 3.70% | 8.02% |
| Sep. 2025 | 3.60% | 8.02% |
| Oct. 2025 | 3.60% | 8.02% |
| Nov. 2025 | 3.60% | 8.02% |
| Dec. 2025 | 3.60% | 8.02% |
| Jan. 2026 | 3.60% | 8.02% |
| Feb. 2026 | 3.83% | 8.27% |
| Mar. 2026 | 3.96% | 8.52% |
| Apr. 2026 | 4.10% | 8.52% |
| May 2026 | 4.31% | 8.77% |
| Jun. 2026 | 4.35% | 8.77% |
| Jul. 2026 | 4.35% | 8.77% |
| Aug. 2026 | 4.35% | 8.77% |
| Sep. 2026 | 4.36% | 8.77% |
| Oct. 2026 | 4.60% | 9.02% |
Household credit, % of GDP
Bank for International Settlements. Latest quarter: Q1 2026, 114.1% of GDP.
Source:Bank for International Settlements
Show the chart data
| Period | Household credit |
|---|---|
| Q1 2000 | 68.1% of GDP |
| Q2 2000 | 69.7% of GDP |
| Q3 2000 | 69.4% of GDP |
| Q4 2000 | 70.1% of GDP |
| Q1 2001 | 70.2% of GDP |
| Q2 2001 | 71.4% of GDP |
| Q3 2001 | 72.5% of GDP |
| Q4 2001 | 73.7% of GDP |
| Q1 2002 | 75.3% of GDP |
| Q2 2002 | 78.2% of GDP |
| Q3 2002 | 80.2% of GDP |
| Q4 2002 | 81.3% of GDP |
| Q1 2003 | 82.8% of GDP |
| Q2 2003 | 85.8% of GDP |
| Q3 2003 | 88.0% of GDP |
| Q4 2003 | 90.5% of GDP |
| Q1 2004 | 92.2% of GDP |
| Q2 2004 | 93.9% of GDP |
| Q3 2004 | 95.2% of GDP |
| Q4 2004 | 96.6% of GDP |
| Q1 2005 | 97.6% of GDP |
| Q2 2005 | 99.6% of GDP |
| Q3 2005 | 100.1% of GDP |
| Q4 2005 | 101.2% of GDP |
| Q1 2006 | 101.3% of GDP |
| Q2 2006 | 104.1% of GDP |
| Q3 2006 | 105.1% of GDP |
| Q4 2006 | 105.9% of GDP |
| Q1 2007 | 105.6% of GDP |
| Q2 2007 | 108.1% of GDP |
| Q3 2007 | 107.9% of GDP |
| Q4 2007 | 109.0% of GDP |
| Q1 2008 | 109.0% of GDP |
| Q2 2008 | 109.8% of GDP |
| Q3 2008 | 108.1% of GDP |
| Q4 2008 | 107.0% of GDP |
| Q1 2009 | 106.4% of GDP |
| Q2 2009 | 108.0% of GDP |
| Q3 2009 | 110.4% of GDP |
| Q4 2009 | 111.8% of GDP |
| Q1 2010 | 112.5% of GDP |
| Q2 2010 | 112.5% of GDP |
| Q3 2010 | 111.4% of GDP |
| Q4 2010 | 110.8% of GDP |
| Q1 2011 | 110.3% of GDP |
| Q2 2011 | 110.3% of GDP |
| Q3 2011 | 109.2% of GDP |
| Q4 2011 | 108.7% of GDP |
| Q1 2012 | 108.4% of GDP |
| Q2 2012 | 109.1% of GDP |
| Q3 2012 | 109.1% of GDP |
| Q4 2012 | 109.5% of GDP |
| Q1 2013 | 109.6% of GDP |
| Q2 2013 | 111.1% of GDP |
| Q3 2013 | 110.8% of GDP |
| Q4 2013 | 111.7% of GDP |
| Q1 2014 | 111.8% of GDP |
| Q2 2014 | 113.2% of GDP |
| Q3 2014 | 113.8% of GDP |
| Q4 2014 | 115.4% of GDP |
| Q1 2015 | 117.0% of GDP |
| Q2 2015 | 119.2% of GDP |
| Q3 2015 | 119.7% of GDP |
| Q4 2015 | 120.5% of GDP |
| Q1 2016 | 121.6% of GDP |
| Q2 2016 | 123.0% of GDP |
| Q3 2016 | 123.9% of GDP |
| Q4 2016 | 123.3% of GDP |
| Q1 2017 | 122.3% of GDP |
| Q2 2017 | 122.6% of GDP |
| Q3 2017 | 121.8% of GDP |
| Q4 2017 | 122.6% of GDP |
| Q1 2018 | 122.9% of GDP |
| Q2 2018 | 122.9% of GDP |
| Q3 2018 | 122.0% of GDP |
| Q4 2018 | 121.8% of GDP |
| Q1 2019 | 121.2% of GDP |
| Q2 2019 | 120.1% of GDP |
| Q3 2019 | 118.7% of GDP |
| Q4 2019 | 118.5% of GDP |
| Q1 2020 | 118.5% of GDP |
| Q2 2020 | 120.4% of GDP |
| Q3 2020 | 121.6% of GDP |
| Q4 2020 | 122.0% of GDP |
| Q1 2021 | 121.6% of GDP |
| Q2 2021 | 119.1% of GDP |
| Q3 2021 | 117.9% of GDP |
| Q4 2021 | 117.4% of GDP |
| Q1 2022 | 116.0% of GDP |
| Q2 2022 | 114.7% of GDP |
| Q3 2022 | 112.1% of GDP |
| Q4 2022 | 110.3% of GDP |
| Q1 2023 | 109.0% of GDP |
| Q2 2023 | 109.5% of GDP |
| Q3 2023 | 109.2% of GDP |
| Q4 2023 | 109.4% of GDP |
| Q1 2024 | 110.0% of GDP |
| Q2 2024 | 111.0% of GDP |
| Q3 2024 | 111.2% of GDP |
| Q4 2024 | 112.0% of GDP |
| Q1 2025 | 112.6% of GDP |
| Q2 2025 | 113.8% of GDP |
| Q3 2025 | 113.4% of GDP |
| Q4 2025 | 114.0% of GDP |
| Q1 2026 | 114.1% of GDP |
2. Record prices beginning to give way
The house price index reached a record in early 2026 before easing. Adjusted for inflation, it is down 0.7% from its Q1 2026 peak.
House prices, current and real
BIS, from the ABS, quarterly indices (2010 = 100). Latest quarter: Q2 2026.
- Real prices
- Current prices
Source:Bank for International Settlements (ABS)
Show the chart data
| Period | Current prices | Real prices |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2000 | 40.6 | 56.0 |
| Q2 2000 | 41.6 | 56.9 |
| Q3 2000 | 41.5 | 54.7 |
| Q4 2000 | 42.5 | 55.9 |
| Q1 2001 | 43.4 | 56.5 |
| Q2 2001 | 45.0 | 58.0 |
| Q3 2001 | 47.3 | 60.9 |
| Q4 2001 | 49.1 | 62.6 |
| Q1 2002 | 51.0 | 64.4 |
| Q2 2002 | 54.0 | 67.7 |
| Q3 2002 | 56.2 | 70.1 |
| Q4 2002 | 58.3 | 72.1 |
| Q1 2003 | 59.9 | 73.1 |
| Q2 2003 | 63.1 | 77.1 |
| Q3 2003 | 66.8 | 81.1 |
| Q4 2003 | 69.3 | 83.8 |
| Q1 2004 | 69.0 | 82.7 |
| Q2 2004 | 68.3 | 81.5 |
| Q3 2004 | 68.3 | 81.1 |
| Q4 2004 | 69.5 | 81.9 |
| Q1 2005 | 69.4 | 81.2 |
| Q2 2005 | 69.9 | 81.3 |
| Q3 2005 | 69.8 | 80.4 |
| Q4 2005 | 71.2 | 81.5 |
| Q1 2006 | 71.9 | 81.7 |
| Q2 2006 | 74.5 | 83.4 |
| Q3 2006 | 75.9 | 84.1 |
| Q4 2006 | 77.3 | 85.8 |
| Q1 2007 | 77.9 | 86.4 |
| Q2 2007 | 81.4 | 89.2 |
| Q3 2007 | 84.3 | 91.7 |
| Q4 2007 | 87.5 | 94.3 |
| Q1 2008 | 87.9 | 93.5 |
| Q2 2008 | 87.1 | 91.4 |
| Q3 2008 | 85.2 | 88.3 |
| Q4 2008 | 84.0 | 87.4 |
| Q1 2009 | 83.8 | 87.1 |
| Q2 2009 | 87.3 | 90.3 |
| Q3 2009 | 91.0 | 93.2 |
| Q4 2009 | 96.0 | 97.8 |
| Q1 2010 | 99.0 | 99.9 |
| Q2 2010 | 101.0 | 101.3 |
| Q3 2010 | 99.7 | 99.3 |
| Q4 2010 | 100.3 | 99.5 |
| Q1 2011 | 99.4 | 97.1 |
| Q2 2011 | 98.7 | 95.6 |
| Q3 2011 | 97.0 | 93.3 |
| Q4 2011 | 96.2 | 92.6 |
| Q1 2012 | 96.8 | 93.1 |
| Q2 2012 | 97.2 | 93.0 |
| Q3 2012 | 97.0 | 91.6 |
| Q4 2012 | 99.1 | 93.3 |
| Q1 2013 | 99.8 | 93.7 |
| Q2 2013 | 102.3 | 95.7 |
| Q3 2013 | 104.8 | 96.8 |
| Q4 2013 | 109.0 | 99.9 |
| Q1 2014 | 110.6 | 100.8 |
| Q2 2014 | 112.7 | 102.2 |
| Q3 2014 | 114.0 | 103.0 |
| Q4 2014 | 116.4 | 104.9 |
| Q1 2015 | 118.2 | 106.3 |
| Q2 2015 | 123.7 | 110.5 |
| Q3 2015 | 126.2 | 112.3 |
| Q4 2015 | 126.4 | 112.1 |
| Q1 2016 | 126.2 | 112.1 |
| Q2 2016 | 128.8 | 113.9 |
| Q3 2016 | 130.7 | 114.8 |
| Q4 2016 | 136.1 | 118.9 |
| Q1 2017 | 139.1 | 121.0 |
| Q2 2017 | 141.8 | 123.1 |
| Q3 2017 | 141.5 | 122.1 |
| Q4 2017 | 142.9 | 122.4 |
| Q1 2018 | 141.9 | 121.1 |
| Q2 2018 | 140.9 | 119.8 |
| Q3 2018 | 138.8 | 117.5 |
| Q4 2018 | 135.5 | 114.1 |
| Q1 2019 | 131.5 | 110.7 |
| Q2 2019 | 130.5 | 109.2 |
| Q3 2019 | 133.7 | 111.3 |
| Q4 2019 | 138.9 | 114.9 |
| Q1 2020 | 141.1 | 116.3 |
| Q2 2020 | 138.6 | 116.4 |
| Q3 2020 | 139.7 | 115.5 |
| Q4 2020 | 143.9 | 118.0 |
| Q1 2021 | 151.7 | 123.6 |
| Q2 2021 | 161.9 | 131.0 |
| Q3 2021 | 170.0 | 136.4 |
| Q4 2021 | 178.0 | 141.0 |
| Q1 2022 | 182.9 | 141.8 |
| Q2 2022 | 183.5 | 139.8 |
| Q3 2022 | 177.1 | 132.5 |
| Q4 2022 | 172.6 | 126.7 |
| Q1 2023 | 171.7 | 124.4 |
| Q2 2023 | 176.5 | 126.8 |
| Q3 2023 | 181.4 | 128.8 |
| Q4 2023 | 185.1 | 130.6 |
| Q1 2024 | 188.1 | 131.6 |
| Q2 2024 | 192.1 | 133.0 |
| Q3 2024 | 194.8 | 134.6 |
| Q4 2024 | 195.7 | 134.9 |
| Q1 2025 | 196.5 | 134.2 |
| Q2 2025 | 199.9 | 135.5 |
| Q3 2025 | 204.7 | 137.0 |
| Q4 2025 | 211.7 | 140.8 |
| Q1 2026 | 216.7 | 142.2 |
| Q2 2026 | 216.4 | 141.2 |
Prices relative to income and to rents (2015 = 100)
OECD. Above 100, prices have risen faster than disposable income per person (or rents) since 2015.
- Price-to-rent
- Price-to-income
Source:OECD
Show the chart data
| Period | Price-to-income | Price-to-rent |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2000 | 67.9 | 57.5 |
| Q2 2000 | 70.5 | 58.2 |
| Q3 2000 | 64.8 | 57.8 |
| Q4 2000 | 68.1 | 58.7 |
| Q1 2001 | 68.2 | 59.7 |
| Q2 2001 | 68.9 | 61.1 |
| Q3 2001 | 71.1 | 64.0 |
| Q4 2001 | 70.9 | 65.6 |
| Q1 2002 | 74.4 | 68.2 |
| Q2 2002 | 81.7 | 71.6 |
| Q3 2002 | 83.5 | 74.2 |
| Q4 2002 | 85.4 | 76.2 |
| Q1 2003 | 86.8 | 78.8 |
| Q2 2003 | 90.2 | 82.3 |
| Q3 2003 | 94.6 | 86.6 |
| Q4 2003 | 95.5 | 88.6 |
| Q1 2004 | 94.7 | 88.6 |
| Q2 2004 | 89.7 | 86.9 |
| Q3 2004 | 90.9 | 86.3 |
| Q4 2004 | 89.6 | 86.8 |
| Q1 2005 | 89.4 | 87.2 |
| Q2 2005 | 87.8 | 86.9 |
| Q3 2005 | 87.3 | 86.3 |
| Q4 2005 | 88.9 | 86.8 |
| Q1 2006 | 89.2 | 87.9 |
| Q2 2006 | 91.5 | 90.0 |
| Q3 2006 | 89.6 | 90.8 |
| Q4 2006 | 89.0 | 90.9 |
| Q1 2007 | 88.9 | 91.2 |
| Q2 2007 | 89.8 | 93.3 |
| Q3 2007 | 93.0 | 95.4 |
| Q4 2007 | 94.3 | 96.8 |
| Q1 2008 | 93.4 | 96.1 |
| Q2 2008 | 91.3 | 92.6 |
| Q3 2008 | 88.7 | 89.2 |
| Q4 2008 | 81.7 | 85.8 |
| Q1 2009 | 83.4 | 84.7 |
| Q2 2009 | 83.9 | 86.6 |
| Q3 2009 | 90.5 | 89.8 |
| Q4 2009 | 93.6 | 93.2 |
| Q1 2010 | 95.5 | 95.5 |
| Q2 2010 | 96.4 | 96.0 |
| Q3 2010 | 94.0 | 94.5 |
| Q4 2010 | 91.5 | 93.3 |
| Q1 2011 | 89.3 | 91.8 |
| Q2 2011 | 87.9 | 89.8 |
| Q3 2011 | 86.0 | 87.8 |
| Q4 2011 | 83.6 | 85.5 |
| Q1 2012 | 85.3 | 85.6 |
| Q2 2012 | 83.8 | 84.7 |
| Q3 2012 | 85.9 | 84.4 |
| Q4 2012 | 85.9 | 84.9 |
| Q1 2013 | 85.8 | 85.3 |
| Q2 2013 | 87.4 | 86.2 |
| Q3 2013 | 89.4 | 88.4 |
| Q4 2013 | 90.9 | 90.7 |
| Q1 2014 | 92.0 | 91.9 |
| Q2 2014 | 92.1 | 92.7 |
| Q3 2014 | 93.8 | 93.8 |
| Q4 2014 | 94.3 | 94.6 |
| Q1 2015 | 96.4 | 96.3 |
| Q2 2015 | 99.3 | 99.9 |
| Q3 2015 | 101.8 | 102.2 |
| Q4 2015 | 102.5 | 101.6 |
| Q1 2016 | 102.9 | 101.9 |
| Q2 2016 | 103.6 | 103.2 |
| Q3 2016 | 105.2 | 105.0 |
| Q4 2016 | 108.9 | 108.6 |
| Q1 2017 | 111.4 | 111.6 |
| Q2 2017 | 113.2 | 113.1 |
| Q3 2017 | 113.4 | 113.1 |
| Q4 2017 | 111.9 | 113.2 |
| Q1 2018 | 111.0 | 112.8 |
| Q2 2018 | 109.2 | 111.7 |
| Q3 2018 | 107.3 | 110.3 |
| Q4 2018 | 102.9 | 106.8 |
| Q1 2019 | 100.0 | 103.9 |
| Q2 2019 | 99.4 | 103.0 |
| Q3 2019 | 100.0 | 105.9 |
| Q4 2019 | 103.6 | 109.3 |
| Q1 2020 | 104.2 | 111.3 |
| Q2 2020 | 99.0 | 110.6 |
| Q3 2020 | 97.0 | 112.4 |
| Q4 2020 | 101.4 | 114.8 |
| Q1 2021 | 105.0 | 121.3 |
| Q2 2021 | 112.5 | 129.1 |
| Q3 2021 | 112.7 | 136.5 |
| Q4 2021 | 119.1 | 141.5 |
| Q1 2022 | 119.5 | 143.0 |
| Q2 2022 | 117.7 | 140.3 |
| Q3 2022 | 112.7 | 135.2 |
| Q4 2022 | 113.8 | 132.2 |
| Q1 2023 | 115.2 | 130.6 |
| Q2 2023 | 116.8 | 130.5 |
| Q3 2023 | 118.6 | 130.7 |
| Q4 2023 | 118.4 | 131.3 |
| Q1 2024 | 120.1 | 130.8 |
| Q2 2024 | 121.2 | 130.5 |
| Q3 2024 | 120.0 | 130.1 |
| Q4 2024 | 119.3 | 130.2 |
| Q1 2025 | 117.8 | 129.9 |
| Q2 2025 | 119.2 | 131.0 |
| Q3 2025 | 121.0 | 133.9 |
| Q4 2025 | 121.5 | – |
| Q1 2026 | 124.9 | – |
3. Rents
Rent increases peaked in early 2024 and have been slowing since, without returning to their pre-pandemic pace.
Rents, change over a year
Consumer price index, rents, seasonally adjusted (ABS), each quarter.
Source:Australian Bureau of Statistics
Show the chart data
| Period | Rents |
|---|---|
| Q1 2005 | 2.2% |
| Q2 2005 | 2.1% |
| Q3 2005 | 2.1% |
| Q4 2005 | 2.4% |
| Q1 2006 | 2.8% |
| Q2 2006 | 2.9% |
| Q3 2006 | 3.5% |
| Q4 2006 | 3.7% |
| Q1 2007 | 4.4% |
| Q2 2007 | 5.2% |
| Q3 2007 | 5.8% |
| Q4 2007 | 6.7% |
| Q1 2008 | 7.0% |
| Q2 2008 | 7.8% |
| Q3 2008 | 8.1% |
| Q4 2008 | 8.4% |
| Q1 2009 | 8.1% |
| Q2 2009 | 7.2% |
| Q3 2009 | 6.2% |
| Q4 2009 | 5.2% |
| Q1 2010 | 4.7% |
| Q2 2010 | 4.1% |
| Q3 2010 | 4.2% |
| Q4 2010 | 4.3% |
| Q1 2011 | 4.5% |
| Q2 2011 | 4.5% |
| Q3 2011 | 4.7% |
| Q4 2011 | 4.7% |
| Q1 2012 | 4.5% |
| Q2 2012 | 4.4% |
| Q3 2012 | 4.0% |
| Q4 2012 | 3.7% |
| Q1 2013 | 3.5% |
| Q2 2013 | 3.4% |
| Q3 2013 | 3.2% |
| Q4 2013 | 3.0% |
| Q1 2014 | 2.9% |
| Q2 2014 | 2.4% |
| Q3 2014 | 2.5% |
| Q4 2014 | 2.3% |
| Q1 2015 | 2.1% |
| Q2 2015 | 2.0% |
| Q3 2015 | 1.5% |
| Q4 2015 | 1.1% |
| Q1 2016 | 0.9% |
| Q2 2016 | 0.7% |
| Q3 2016 | 0.7% |
| Q4 2016 | 0.6% |
| Q1 2017 | 0.6% |
| Q2 2017 | 0.6% |
| Q3 2017 | 0.5% |
| Q4 2017 | 0.7% |
| Q1 2018 | 0.8% |
| Q2 2018 | 0.6% |
| Q3 2018 | 0.6% |
| Q4 2018 | 0.5% |
| Q1 2019 | 0.4% |
| Q2 2019 | 0.4% |
| Q3 2019 | 0.4% |
| Q4 2019 | 0.2% |
| Q1 2020 | 0.2% |
| Q2 2020 | −1.2% |
| Q3 2020 | −1.4% |
| Q4 2020 | −1.3% |
| Q1 2021 | −1.4% |
| Q2 2021 | 0.0% |
| Q3 2021 | 0.4% |
| Q4 2021 | 0.4% |
| Q1 2022 | 1.1% |
| Q2 2022 | 1.5% |
| Q3 2022 | 2.7% |
| Q4 2022 | 4.0% |
| Q1 2023 | 4.9% |
| Q2 2023 | 6.7% |
| Q3 2023 | 7.6% |
| Q4 2023 | 7.3% |
| Q1 2024 | 7.8% |
| Q2 2024 | 7.3% |
| Q3 2024 | 6.7% |
| Q4 2024 | 6.4% |
| Q1 2025 | 5.5% |
| Q2 2025 | 4.5% |
| Q3 2025 | 3.8% |
| Q4 2025 | 4.1% |
| Q1 2026 | 3.7% |
| Q2 2026 | 3.6% |
| Q3 2026 | 3.6% |
4. Building 1.2 million homes
Commencements picked up in 2025 – 26 (204,440), but completions remain far from the targeted pace: 180,500 in the 2025 – 26 financial year.
Dwellings commenced and completed, by financial year (July to June)
ABS, all building, original data, complete years. Dashed line: 240,000 a year, the average pace of the Accord target.
- Completed
- Commenced
Source:Australian Bureau of StatisticsPrime Minister of Australia
Show the chart data
| Period | Commenced | Completed |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 – 11 | 162,499 | 161,434 |
| 2011 – 12 | 145,350 | 145,919 |
| 2012 – 13 | 166,027 | 147,684 |
| 2013 – 14 | 184,911 | 161,945 |
| 2014 – 15 | 219,289 | 192,508 |
| 2015 – 16 | 234,440 | 201,652 |
| 2016 – 17 | 221,394 | 219,052 |
| 2017 – 18 | 229,337 | 213,215 |
| 2018 – 19 | 197,255 | 215,278 |
| 2019 – 20 | 172,890 | 192,264 |
| 2020 – 21 | 213,236 | 179,923 |
| 2021 – 22 | 205,787 | 172,804 |
| 2022 – 23 | 175,536 | 174,598 |
| 2023 – 24 | 160,262 | 177,848 |
| 2024 – 25 | 180,277 | 175,510 |
| 2025 – 26 | 204,440 | 180,500 |
What we know, what we don’t
What the figures establish
- The Reserve Bank raised its rate several times in 2026, and banks raised their mortgage rates.
- The official house price index fell in the second quarter of 2026, after a strong rise over a year.
- Homes completed since July 2024 remain well below the pace of the 1.2 million target.
What they don’t tell
- The size of the price fall in recent months: private monthly indices are not used here.
- The effect of the rate rises: these series do not measure their effect on prices or on building.
- The rate households actually pay, lower than the advertised standard rate.
Sources
Series downloaded from their producers on Nov 12, 2026, the snapshot date. Only published periods are used: no projection.
- Australian Bureau of Statistics Consumer Price Index, rents (CPI_Q, seasonally adjusted index)
- Australian Bureau of Statistics Building Activity, Australia: dwelling units commenced and completed
- Bank for International Settlements Credit to households, % of GDP (WS_TC)
- Bank for International Settlements (ABS) Residential property prices, nominal and real (WS_SPP)
- Bank for International Settlements (Reserve Bank of Australia) Central bank policy rates (WS_CBPOL), end of month
- OECD Analytical house price indicators (DF_HOUSE_PRICES)
- Prime Minister of Australia Meeting of National Cabinet: working together to deliver better housing outcomes (16 August 2023)
- Reserve Bank of Australia (via DBnomics) Cash rate target (F1.1) and housing lending rates, banks, standard variable, owner-occupier (F5)