Lula, third term: the record in figures
Re-elected on 25 October 2026 for a fourth term, Lula has seen unemployment fall to a low and poverty recede since 2023, while public debt rose. What improved, what worsened, and the 2022 promises.
Scope: Brazil, from 1 January 2023 to 12 November 2026; comparison with the world over the same periods where a world total exists.
Key points
- Unemployment at a low. The unemployment rate goes from 7.9% in the fourth quarter of 2022 to 5.4% in the second quarter of 2026, after a low of 5.1% at the end of 2025; youth unemployment (15-24) falls from 20.7% to 14.0% (ILO estimate, 2022-2025).
- Steady growth. Real GDP grows 9.9% between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the second quarter of 2026; GDP per capita 7.9% between 2022 and 2025, slightly more than the world (+7.3%).
- Poverty recedes: 25.3% of the population below the $8.30-a-day line in 2022, 20.6% in 2024 (world −2.1 points). The Gini index falls from 51.9 to 50.3.
- Public accounts worsened. According to the IMF, the general government deficit goes from 4.0% of GDP in 2022 to 7.4% in 2025, weighed down by interest; the primary balance goes from a surplus of 1.3% to −0.1%, and debt from 83.9% to 93.3% of GDP.
- Inflation above target: prices rose 18.9% between December 2022 and September 2026; over a year, 4.6% in September 2026, above the 3% target.
The record in figures, period by period
Pick a period: each indicator is read between the last figure published before the term began and the last one before it ended (or the latest one for a term still running), and compared with the world over exactly the same window.
8 improved, 5 worsened, 0 stable, 1 without value judgement
How to read the charts: Brazil (blue) and the world (grey) start from the same point at the beginning of the selected period, 0 for a rate (change in points), 100 for a level. Light line: before the period. Bands: the terms of office.
Economy
- Real GDPImproved+9.9%World: n/a
180.4 (Q4 2022) → 198.2 (Q2 2026)
latest published figure
Quarterly GDP volume index, seasonally adjusted (IBGE). No comparable world total.
- Real GDP per capitaImproved+7.9%World: +7.3%
$18,554 PPP (2022) → $20,025 PPP (2025)
better than the world · latest published figure
In constant purchasing-power-parity dollars.
See the card: GDP per capitaSource: World Bank NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD
Jobs
- Unemployment rate (PNAD)Improved−2.5 ptsWorld: n/a
7.9% (Q4 2022) → 5.4% (Q2 2026)
latest published figure
IBGE continuous national household survey, aged 14 and over, quarterly, not seasonally adjusted.
See the card: Unemployment rate (ILO)Source: IBGE SIDRA table 4099
- Unemployment, aged 15-24 (ILO estimate)Improved−6.8 ptsWorld: −0.7 pt
20.7% (2022) → 14.0% (2025)
better than the world · latest published figure
See the card: Youth unemployment (15-24)Source: World Bank SL.UEM.1524.ZS
- Employment rate, aged 15 and overImproved+1.7 ptWorld: +0.5 pt
57.7% (2022) → 59.4% (2025)
better than the world · latest published figure
ILO modelled estimate. Its fall also reflects ageing.
See the card: Employment rate (15-64)Source: World Bank SL.EMP.TOTL.SP.ZS
Prices and purchasing power
- Consumer prices (IPCA)No judgement+18.9%World: n/a
6,474.1 (Dec 2022) → 7,695.8 (Sep 2026)
latest published figure
Cumulative rise of IBGE’s broad consumer price index, the central bank’s target. No comparable world total.
Public finances
- Budget balance (% of GDP)Worsened−3.5 ptsWorld: n/a
−4.0% (2022) → −7.4% (2025)
latest published figure
General government balance according to the IMF (World Economic Outlook), actual years only. Negative = deficit.
- Primary balance (% of GDP)Worsened−1.4 ptWorld: n/a
1.3% (2022) → −0.1% (2025)
latest published figure
Public balance excluding interest on the debt, according to the IMF, actual years only. Negative = primary deficit.
- Public debt (% of GDP)Worsened+9.4 ptsWorld: n/a
83.9% (2022) → 93.3% (2025)
latest published figure
General government gross debt according to the IMF, actual years only.
Social cohesion and education
- Poverty (upper-middle-income line)Improved−4.7 ptsWorld: −2.1 pts
25.3% (2022) → 20.6% (2024)
better than the world · latest published figure
Share of the population living on less than $8.30 a day (2021 PPP), the World Bank line for upper-middle-income countries.
- Income inequality (Gini index)Improved−1.6 ptWorld: n/a
51.9 (2022) → 50.3 (2024)
latest published figure
0 = perfect equality, 100 = one household gets everything (World Bank).
- Life expectancy at birthImproved+1.2 yearWorld: +0.5 year
74.9 years (2022) → 76.0 years (2024)
better than the world · latest published figure
See the card: Life expectancySource: World Bank SP.DYN.LE00.IN
Climate and energy
- Greenhouse gas emissionsWorsened+2.2%World: +3.7%
1,278 Mt (2022) → 1,307 Mt (2025)
better than the world · latest published figure
Excluding land use (LULUCF), million tonnes CO₂ equivalent (EDGAR, European Commission, 2026 edition).
- Renewables share of electricityWorsened−1.1 ptWorld: +5.4 pts
89.2% (Dec 2022) → 88.1% (Aug 2026)
worse than the world · latest published figure
Share of renewables (hydro included) in electricity generation over the last 12 months (Ember, monthly).
Reading: “Improved” / “Worsened” gives the direction of the change for a citizen (less unemployment, more jobs…), not a cause. An indicator whose level is a political choice (spending, revenue) is shown without judgement. A change whose window covers less than half of the span between its two figures is not shown (too early to judge). Sources: IBGE, IMF, World Bank, EDGAR, Ember, data extracted on 12 November 2026.
Show the full table of indicators for the selected period
| Indicator | Start of period | End of period | Change | World (same period) | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP | 180.4 (Q4 2022) | 198.2 (Q2 2026) | +9.9% | – | Improved |
| Real GDP per capita | $18,554 PPP (2022) | $20,025 PPP (2025) | +7.9% | +7.3% | Improved |
| Unemployment rate (PNAD) | 7.9% (Q4 2022) | 5.4% (Q2 2026) | −2.5 pts | – | Improved |
| Unemployment, aged 15-24 (ILO estimate) | 20.7% (2022) | 14.0% (2025) | −6.8 pts | −0.7 pt | Improved |
| Employment rate, aged 15 and over | 57.7% (2022) | 59.4% (2025) | +1.7 pt | +0.5 pt | Improved |
| Consumer prices (IPCA) | 6,474.1 (Dec 2022) | 7,695.8 (Sep 2026) | +18.9% | – | No judgement |
| Budget balance (% of GDP) | −4.0% (2022) | −7.4% (2025) | −3.5 pts | – | Worsened |
| Primary balance (% of GDP) | 1.3% (2022) | −0.1% (2025) | −1.4 pt | – | Worsened |
| Public debt (% of GDP) | 83.9% (2022) | 93.3% (2025) | +9.4 pts | – | Worsened |
| Poverty (upper-middle-income line) | 25.3% (2022) | 20.6% (2024) | −4.7 pts | −2.1 pts | Improved |
| Income inequality (Gini index) | 51.9 (2022) | 50.3 (2024) | −1.6 pt | – | Improved |
| Life expectancy at birth | 74.9 years (2022) | 76.0 years (2024) | +1.2 year | +0.5 year | Improved |
| Greenhouse gas emissions | 1,278 Mt (2022) | 1,307 Mt (2025) | +2.2% | +3.7% | Worsened |
| Renewables share of electricity | 89.2% (Dec 2022) | 88.1% (Aug 2026) | −1.1 pt | +5.4 pts | Worsened |
Strengths and weaknesses
What the data say since the start of the term (last figure before January 2023 → latest published figure). The figures come from the table above.
What improved
- Jobs. Unemployment from 7.9% to 5.4% (fourth quarter of 2022 → second quarter of 2026), employment rate from 57.7% to 59.4% (2022-2025), youth unemployment from 20.7% to 14.0%.
- Growth. Real GDP +9.9% in three and a half years; GDP per capita +7.9% (2022-2025).
- Poverty and inequality. Poverty at the $8.30 line from 25.3% to 20.6% (2022-2024), Gini from 51.9 to 50.3.
- Life expectancy. 74.9 years in 2022, 76.0 years in 2024 (+1.2 years, world +0.5).
What worsened
- Deficit and debt. Deficit from 4.0% to 7.4% of GDP (2022-2025, IMF), debt from 83.9% to 93.3% of GDP; the primary balance has not returned to surplus.
- Prices. +18.9% since December 2022; 4.6% over a year in September 2026, above the 3% target.
- Emissions. +2.2% between 2022 and 2025 (world +3.7%), excluding land use: deforestation is not counted here.
- Renewable electricity. Already very high, its share falls slightly (89.2% → 88.1%, December 2022 → August 2026), while it rises 5.4 points worldwide.
The promises: kept or not?
The commitments of the 2022 campaign and the main programmes announced by the government, and what became of them according to the documents cited as sources.
2022 presidential campaign
- KeptTaxation
Exempt people earning up to R$5,000 a month from income tax (one of the main pledges of the 2022 campaign) and make the very rich pay more income tax.
The law, passed unanimously by the Chamber and the Senate, is signed on 26 November 2025 and applies from January 2026: exemption up to R$5,000 a month, tapering relief up to R$7,350. The government estimates 15 million beneficiaries (10 million no longer pay the tax, 5 million pay less). To offset it, a progressive minimum tax of up to 10% applies to incomes above R$600,000 a year (about 140,000 taxpayers).[1],[2],[3]
- KeptWages
Restore the minimum-wage valorisation policy to rebuild the purchasing power of workers and of welfare and pension recipients.
The minimum wage rises from R$1,302 to R$1,320 in May 2023. The rule passed in August 2023 indexes it from 2024 on inflation (INPC) plus GDP growth two years earlier; the real gain is now bounded by the fiscal rule (between 0.6% and 2.5%). It reaches R$1,518 in 2025, then R$1,621 in January 2026 (+6.79%, against INPC inflation of 4.18% over twelve months).[1],[4],[5],[6]
- KeptSocial protection
Urgently set up a “renewed and expanded” Bolsa Família programme, guaranteeing an income suited to the population’s current needs.
The programme is recreated by provisional measure on 2 March 2023: at least R$600 per family, R$150 per child under 6 and R$50 per pregnant woman or young person aged 7 to 18. A September 2026 decree raises the amounts by 15.04% (INPC inflation from March 2023 to August 2026) from October: R$691 minimum, R$173 per young child. In October 2026, 19.3 million families receive it, R$782.92 on average.[1],[7],[8],[9],[10]
- KeptHunger
Push back hunger again, which had returned to the country according to the 2022 programme, with a stronger Bolsa Família.
FAO’s SOFI 2025 report, published on 28 July 2025, no longer places Brazil on the Hunger Map: less than 2.5% of the population is undernourished over 2022-2024. The country had left it in 2014 and returned over 2018-2020. According to the national survey cited by the government, severe food insecurity affects 3.2% of households in 2024, the lowest in the series.[1],[11],[12]
- In progressEnvironment
Fight illegal deforestation relentlessly (2022 programme) and bring deforestation down to zero by 2030, a commitment of the federal government.
According to INPE’s PRODES system, deforestation in the Legal Amazon reaches 5,796 km² from August 2024 to July 2025 (−11.08% over a year, −50% compared with 2022 according to the government). The PRODES estimate published on 16 October 2026 gives 3,335 km² from August 2025 to July 2026 (about −42%), the lowest since the series began in 1988. The 2030 target is not reached yet.[1],[13],[14],[15]
- Partly keptPublic finances
Repeal the spending cap and build a new, credible fiscal regime. The framework adopted in 2023 targets a zero primary deficit in 2024, then a surplus of 0.5% of GDP in 2025 and 1% in 2026 (tolerance band of 0.25 point).
Complementary Law 200 replaces the spending cap on 31 August 2023. The central government posts a primary deficit of R$43.0bn in 2024 (0.36% of GDP) and R$61.7bn in 2025 (0.48%). Excluding spending left out of the target (R$31.8bn in 2024, mostly for Rio Grande do Sul; R$48.7bn in 2025), the deficit is 0.09% then 0.1% of GDP, within the tolerance band. The 2025 target was lowered to zero and the 2026 target to a surplus of 0.25% of GDP.[1],[16],[17],[18],[19],[20]
- In progressTaxation
Propose a tax reform that simplifies and lightens the taxation of consumption, with the poor paying less and the rich paying more.
Constitutional Amendment 132, promulgated by Congress in December 2023, replaces five taxes (PIS, Cofins, IPI, ICMS, ISS) with a two-part VAT: the federal CBS and the IBS of states and municipalities. Complementary Law 214, signed on 16 January 2025, sets its rules; a decree of 30 April 2026 regulates the CBS. 2026 is a test year (0.9% CBS and 0.1% IBS, offset against PIS/Cofins); the transition runs to 2032 and the new system fully applies in 2033.[1],[21],[22]
- KeptHousehold debt
Organise the renegotiation of the debts of families and small and medium-sized firms through public banks and with incentives for private banks.
The Desenrola Brasil programme ends on 20 May 2024: according to the Finance Ministry, 15.06 million people renegotiated R$53.07bn of debt (0.5% of GDP). In the priority group (incomes up to two minimum wages or listed in the social registry), the number of people in default falls by 8.7% between May 2023 and March 2024 (from 25.2 to 23.1 million, Serasa data).[1],[23]
- KeptHousing
Relaunch a broad housing access programme (2022 programme): 2 million homes contracted under Minha Casa, Minha Vida by the end of the term in December 2026.
According to the Ministry of Cities, 2.114 million homes were contracted from 2023 to 2025, meeting the target a year early; the target was raised to 3 million by the end of 2026. These are signed contracts, not homes delivered.[1],[24]
The context: the events of the period
A record is not read out of context: the events that marked the term.
January 8, 2023
Attack on the institutions in Brasília
One week after the inauguration, supporters of Jair Bolsonaro storm and ransack the Planalto palace, Congress and the Supreme Court on the Three Powers Square; 2,172 people are arrested. Two years later, the Supreme Court had convicted 371 people, with sentences of 3 to 17.5 years in prison.[25]
May 2024
Floods in Rio Grande do Sul
Torrential rains from late April 2024 cause the country’s worst floods in more than 80 years: 181 deaths and more than 580,000 people displaced. About R$31.8bn of extraordinary appropriations, mostly for the state’s reconstruction, are excluded from the 2024 fiscal target calculation.[26],[18]
June 18, 2025
The policy rate at its highest since 2006
The central bank’s monetary policy committee raises the Selic rate for the seventh time in a row, to 15% a year. The rate stays there until March 2026, then the central bank lowers it: it stands at 13.75% in early November 2026.[27],[28]
August 6, 2025
US tariffs of 50%
50% tariffs ordered by Donald Trump come into force on 35.9% of Brazilian exports to the United States (coffee, fruit and meat among them; about 700 products excluded). Donald Trump cites, among other reasons, the trial of Jair Bolsonaro.[29]
September 11, 2025
Jair Bolsonaro convicted
The Supreme Court’s first panel convicts, by four votes to one, the former president and seven allies of attempting a coup and of armed criminal organisation; Jair Bolsonaro is sentenced to 27 years and 3 months in prison.[30]
November 22, 2025
COP30 in Belém
The UN climate conference, chaired by Brazil in the Amazon, ends after 13 days of negotiations with 29 decisions adopted (the “Belém Package”), including the Tropical Forest Forever fund; the roadmap away from fossil fuels, a Brazilian priority, does not reach consensus.[31]
October 25, 2026
Re-elected for a fourth term
Second in the first round on 4 October (45.16% against 47.03% for Flávio Bolsonaro), Lula wins the run-off with 51.79% of valid votes against 48.21%, according to the Superior Electoral Court. Flávio Bolsonaro refuses to acknowledge the result and says he will seek its annulment.[32],[33]
The reforms Citoyen follows
The major reforms of the period that have their own detailed factsheet (timeline, measures, debate, indicators to follow).
Method
Which value at the start and end of a term? The last figure whose period had ended on that date. For a term that began on 1 January 2023: December 2022 for a monthly series, the 4th quarter of 2022 for a quarterly one, 2022 for an annual one. A term still running ends on the latest published figure. A change is shown only if the selected period covers at least half of the span between its two figures.
Why compare with the world? Part of the changes comes from common shocks (Covid, energy prices, interest rates). The change of the aggregate (world) over the same window is a benchmark: “better” means the country did better than that reference over the period, whatever the cause.
What this record does not say. It measures changes, not causes: an indicator that improves during a term is not necessarily due to the policies pursued, and vice versa. Quarterly GDP, unemployment and prices are IBGE’s national series: there is no comparable world total, so those rows are shown without comparison. Public debt is the IMF’s, which counts Treasury securities held by the central bank: it is higher than the gross debt published by the Central Bank of Brazil. Poverty and inequality stop in 2024 (latest survey taken up by the World Bank).
Sources
- Indicators. IBGE (quarterly GDP, continuous PNAD survey, IPCA price index) through the SIDRA API; IMF (World Economic Outlook, actual years); World Bank (GDP per capita, ILO-estimated employment and unemployment, poverty, Gini, life expectancy); EDGAR (emissions, 2026 edition); Ember (electricity). Brazil and world, extracted on 12 November 2026 by scripts/analyses/build-mandate-data.py.IBGE SIDRAIMF
- Term dates. Presidency of the Republic (Citoyen’s terms-of-office dataset).Planalto
- [1] Diretrizes para o Programa de Reconstrução e Transformação do Brasil, Lula Alckmin 2023-2026 (Coligação Brasil da Esperança) · Coligação Brasil da Esperança (Fundação Perseu Abramo)
- [2] Lula sanciona isenção do IR para quem ganha até R$ 5 mil · Agência Brasil · secondary source
- [3] Presidente sanciona lei que amplia isenção do Imposto de Renda para quem ganha até R$ 5 mil · Ministério da Fazenda
- [4] Lula confirma aumento do salário mínimo para R$ 1.320 em maio · Agência Brasil · secondary source
- [5] Câmara aprova MP que aumenta salário mínimo e amplia isenção do IR · Agência Brasil · secondary source
- [6] Governo confirma salário mínimo de R$ 1.621 em 2026 · Agência Brasil · secondary source
- [7] Bolsa Família é recriado com mínimo de R$ 600 por família e mais R$ 150 por criança de até seis anos (MDS Informa n° 894) · Ministério do Desenvolvimento e Assistência Social, Família e Combate à Fome
- [8] Comissão marca para 3 de maio votação do parecer do Bolsa Família · Agência Brasil · secondary source
- [9] Bolsa Família é reajustado em 15%; medida vale a partir de outubro · Agência Brasil · secondary source
- [10] Beneficiários com NIS de final 2 recebem Bolsa Família de outubro · Agência Brasil · secondary source
- [11] Brazil out of FAO’s Hunger Map · MercoPress · secondary source
- [12] Statement by Brazil on the SOFI 2025 report (Committee on World Food Security, 53rd session) · FAO (délégation du Brésil)
- [13] Desmatamento tem redução de 11,08% na Amazônia e 11,49% no Cerrado, em 2025 · Agência Gov (Ministério do Meio Ambiente e Mudança do Clima)
- [14] Deforestation falls 11% in Amazon and Cerrado · Agência Brasil · secondary source
- [15] Prodes 2026 registra menor taxa da história, mas futuro da meta de Desmatamento Zero depende de continuidade e vontade política, alerta Greenpeace · Greenpeace Brasil · secondary source
- [16] Presidente Lula sanciona a lei do novo arcabouço fiscal · Agência Gov (Planalto)
- [17] Entenda as regras do novo arcabouço fiscal · Agência Brasil · secondary source
- [18] Déficit primário totaliza R$ 43 bilhões em 2024 · Agência Brasil · secondary source
- [19] Déficit primário do Governo Central totaliza R$ 61,7 bilhões em 2025 · Agência Brasil · secondary source
- [20] Governo central tem déficit de R$13 bi em 2025 e cumpre meta com gastos fora da conta · InfoMoney (Reuters) · secondary source
- [21] Sancionado o primeiro projeto de regulamentação do novo sistema de tributação do consumo · Ministério da Fazenda
- [22] Publicado decreto que regulamenta a Contribuição Social sobre Bens e Serviços · Agência Gov (Planalto)
- [23] Desenrola encerra beneficiando 15,5 milhões de pessoas e reduzindo inadimplência dos mais vulneráveis · Agência Gov (Ministério da Fazenda)
- [24] Minha Casa, Minha Vida: 2 milhões de contratações desde 2023 · Ministério das Cidades
- [25] Brazil’s Supreme Court convicts 371 for January 8 attacks · Agência Brasil · secondary source
- [26] 2024 Rio Grande do Sul floods · Wikipedia · secondary source
- [27] Copom eleva taxa básica de juros da economia pela sétima vez seguida · Agência Brasil (Radioagência Nacional) · secondary source
- [28] Copom decide nesta quarta-feira se corta ou mantém a Taxa Selic · Agência Brasil · secondary source
- [29] Tariff hikes on Brazilian exports come into effect · Agência Brasil · secondary source
- [30] Bolsonaro sentenced to 27 years in prison for coup plot · Agência Brasil · secondary source
- [31] Entenda o Pacote de Belém; que inclui 29 documentos aprovados na COP30 · Agência Brasil · secondary source
- [32] 2026 Brazilian general election · Wikipedia · secondary source
- [33] Lula holds off far right with victory in Brazil presidential election · Al Jazeera · secondary source