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  1. Canada
  2. ›
  3. Economy & public finances

Trade war with the United States: the Canadian economy takes the hit

Since 2025, Washington has taxed Canadian steel, aluminium, cars and part of other goods. Talks collapsed in August 2026 and Ottawa has applied counter-tariffs since 8 September. Exports, exposed sectors, output, jobs and interest rates, from Statistics Canada.

Citoyen·Data as of Nov 12, 2026

Scope: Canada, merchandise trade (balance-of-payments basis, seasonally adjusted; customs basis by product), monthly GDP by industry, Labour Force Survey, from Statistics Canada; Bank of Canada policy rate (BIS).

This dossier is updated at least once a quarter with the new figures. Follow it to get a notification at each update.

Key points

Share of exports going to the United States70.2%Sep. 2026, against 75.9% in 2024
Fall in car exports to the United States13.0%January to September 2026, against the same months of 2024
Unemployment rate6.7%Oct. 2026, after 7.1% in Aug. 2025
Bank of Canada policy rate2.50%Oct. 2026, against 5.00% in 2023
  • Less dependence. The United States takes 70.2% of Canadian merchandise exports in Sep. 2026, against 75.9% in 2024. Since January, sales to other countries are up 34.3% over a year.
  • Exports to the United States hold up. After a −3.7% change in 2025, they are up 8.5% over the first nine months of 2026, driven by energy (14.9%).
  • Cars and metals fall. Exports of cars and parts to the United States are 13.0% below their level in the same months of 2024; those of metal and mineral products (steel, aluminium), 6.9% below.
  • Output grows little. GDP is 2.4% above its December 2024 level (Dec. 2024 – Aug. 2026); manufacturing has stayed flat (−0.1%).
  • Unemployment and rates. Unemployment is 6.7% in Oct. 2026, as in December 2024. The Bank of Canada cut its rate to 2.25%, then raised it to 2.50% in Oct. 2026.
How to read these figures

Total exports and their split by country are read on a balance-of-payments basis, seasonally adjusted, in billions of current Canadian dollars: a fall can come from volumes as well as prices (energy follows oil prices). Exports by product come from customs statistics, not seasonally adjusted: Citoyen compares the same months from one year to the next (January to September).

Monthly GDP is measured in chained 2017 dollars (volume), December 2024 = 100 in the chart, the last month before the first US tariffs of 2025 took effect. Canada’s counter-tariffs of 8 September 2026 can so far be read on only one month of trade and two months of jobs.

1. Trade with the United States

Exports to the United States fell in spring 2025, then recovered in 2026. Their share of the total is falling: Canada sells more elsewhere.

Exports to and imports from the United States

Statistics Canada, balance-of-payments basis, seasonally adjusted, monthly. Trade surplus with the United States from January to September: C$78.0bn in 2026, C$64.2bn in 2025.

  • Imports from the United States
  • Exports to the United States

Source:Statistics Canada

Show the chart data
PeriodExports to the United StatesImports from the United States
Jan. 2015C$31.9bnC$29.8bn
Feb. 2015C$32.3bnC$29.7bn
Mar. 2015C$32.3bnC$30.1bn
Apr. 2015C$32.6bnC$29.8bn
May 2015C$32.2bnC$29.8bn
Jun. 2015C$34.4bnC$29.9bn
Jul. 2015C$34.8bnC$30.7bn
Aug. 2015C$34.5bnC$30.6bn
Sep. 2015C$34.0bnC$30.9bn
Oct. 2015C$32.4bnC$30.6bn
Nov. 2015C$32.6bnC$30.7bn
Dec. 2015C$33.5bnC$31.1bn
Jan. 2016C$34.7bnC$31.3bn
Feb. 2016C$32.9bnC$30.8bn
Mar. 2016C$30.9bnC$29.0bn
Apr. 2016C$31.1bnC$29.6bn
May 2016C$31.6bnC$29.5bn
Jun. 2016C$31.2bnC$29.9bn
Jul. 2016C$32.9bnC$29.5bn
Aug. 2016C$33.1bnC$30.2bn
Sep. 2016C$32.8bnC$30.0bn
Oct. 2016C$33.2bnC$30.2bn
Nov. 2016C$34.4bnC$29.7bn
Dec. 2016C$33.9bnC$30.1bn
Jan. 2017C$35.3bnC$31.0bn
Feb. 2017C$35.0bnC$30.3bn
Mar. 2017C$33.9bnC$30.7bn
Apr. 2017C$35.8bnC$31.2bn
May 2017C$35.8bnC$32.5bn
Jun. 2017C$33.8bnC$32.0bn
Jul. 2017C$32.8bnC$29.9bn
Aug. 2017C$32.6bnC$29.9bn
Sep. 2017C$32.2bnC$30.0bn
Oct. 2017C$33.3bnC$29.9bn
Nov. 2017C$35.5bnC$32.2bn
Dec. 2017C$35.2bnC$32.1bn
Jan. 2018C$34.6bnC$31.2bn
Feb. 2018C$35.2bnC$31.9bn
Mar. 2018C$35.5bnC$33.2bn
Apr. 2018C$36.6bnC$32.3bn
May 2018C$36.6bnC$32.9bn
Jun. 2018C$37.9bnC$33.1bn
Jul. 2018C$38.7bnC$33.0bn
Aug. 2018C$37.7bnC$32.4bn
Sep. 2018C$37.7bnC$33.1bn
Oct. 2018C$37.0bnC$33.1bn
Nov. 2018C$34.0bnC$32.9bn
Dec. 2018C$32.8bnC$32.2bn
Jan. 2019C$34.9bnC$32.7bn
Feb. 2019C$36.6bnC$32.9bn
Mar. 2019C$37.9bnC$33.3bn
Apr. 2019C$38.2bnC$33.4bn
May 2019C$38.8bnC$33.6bn
Jun. 2019C$37.4bnC$32.6bn
Jul. 2019C$37.0bnC$32.6bn
Aug. 2019C$37.9bnC$33.2bn
Sep. 2019C$37.5bnC$32.8bn
Oct. 2019C$37.0bnC$32.2bn
Nov. 2019C$36.1bnC$31.8bn
Dec. 2019C$36.6bnC$31.3bn
Jan. 2020C$35.3bnC$32.6bn
Feb. 2020C$35.6bnC$33.0bn
Mar. 2020C$31.4bnC$30.6bn
Apr. 2020C$20.5bnC$20.2bn
May 2020C$22.4bnC$21.1bn
Jun. 2020C$29.2bnC$27.0bn
Jul. 2020C$32.6bnC$30.7bn
Aug. 2020C$34.0bnC$31.1bn
Sep. 2020C$33.6bnC$31.8bn
Oct. 2020C$33.7bnC$30.9bn
Nov. 2020C$33.3bnC$30.6bn
Dec. 2020C$33.8bnC$31.2bn
Jan. 2021C$37.7bnC$31.9bn
Feb. 2021C$38.2bnC$31.4bn
Mar. 2021C$36.5bnC$32.5bn
Apr. 2021C$36.8bnC$31.2bn
May 2021C$36.8bnC$31.2bn
Jun. 2021C$39.0bnC$32.0bn
Jul. 2021C$40.4bnC$34.1bn
Aug. 2021C$40.2bnC$32.4bn
Sep. 2021C$39.6bnC$31.6bn
Oct. 2021C$42.2bnC$34.3bn
Nov. 2021C$45.5bnC$35.6bn
Dec. 2021C$44.6bnC$37.0bn
Jan. 2022C$45.3bnC$35.7bn
Feb. 2022C$46.6bnC$36.1bn
Mar. 2022C$50.1bnC$37.5bn
Apr. 2022C$51.5bnC$39.4bn
May 2022C$52.9bnC$39.7bn
Jun. 2022C$52.9bnC$41.2bn
Jul. 2022C$50.8bnC$41.0bn
Aug. 2022C$49.5bnC$41.1bn
Sep. 2022C$49.4bnC$40.9bn
Oct. 2022C$48.9bnC$41.6bn
Nov. 2022C$47.3bnC$40.4bn
Dec. 2022C$48.5bnC$40.9bn
Jan. 2023C$49.4bnC$41.1bn
Feb. 2023C$47.7bnC$39.6bn
Mar. 2023C$47.8bnC$39.5bn
Apr. 2023C$49.6bnC$39.8bn
May 2023C$49.0bnC$40.9bn
Jun. 2023C$47.3bnC$41.1bn
Jul. 2023C$48.6bnC$40.6bn
Aug. 2023C$51.2bnC$40.7bn
Sep. 2023C$52.1bnC$41.2bn
Oct. 2023C$51.3bnC$39.9bn
Nov. 2023C$50.6bnC$39.9bn
Dec. 2023C$47.7bnC$40.4bn
Jan. 2024C$46.8bnC$39.4bn
Feb. 2024C$48.8bnC$40.3bn
Mar. 2024C$47.7bnC$39.8bn
Apr. 2024C$49.4bnC$41.5bn
May 2024C$49.8bnC$41.0bn
Jun. 2024C$49.8bnC$41.8bn
Jul. 2024C$50.4bnC$40.2bn
Aug. 2024C$48.0bnC$40.5bn
Sep. 2024C$48.4bnC$40.5bn
Oct. 2024C$47.4bnC$40.6bn
Nov. 2024C$50.3bnC$42.0bn
Dec. 2024C$53.0bnC$41.1bn
Jan. 2025C$57.1bnC$43.0bn
Feb. 2025C$54.4bnC$43.3bn
Mar. 2025C$49.1bnC$42.3bn
Apr. 2025C$41.8bnC$38.7bn
May 2025C$41.9bnC$38.7bn
Jun. 2025C$43.5bnC$39.3bn
Jul. 2025C$45.4bnC$38.5bn
Aug. 2025C$43.9bnC$37.9bn
Sep. 2025C$45.8bnC$37.2bn
Oct. 2025C$44.1bnC$39.3bn
Nov. 2025C$43.9bnC$37.3bn
Dec. 2025C$44.5bnC$38.8bn
Jan. 2026C$42.8bnC$36.9bn
Feb. 2026C$44.9bnC$42.2bn
Mar. 2026C$49.8bnC$42.4bn
Apr. 2026C$53.2bnC$43.0bn
May 2026C$53.8bnC$42.9bn
Jun. 2026C$54.3bnC$43.9bn
Jul. 2026C$50.1bnC$44.1bn
Aug. 2026C$54.8bnC$42.7bn
Sep. 2026C$55.2bnC$42.8bn

US share of Canadian exports

Exports to the United States as % of total merchandise exports.

Source:Statistics Canada

Show the chart data
PeriodUS share
Jan. 201575.4%
Feb. 201575.2%
Mar. 201574.6%
Apr. 201575.8%
May 201575.6%
Jun. 201576.5%
Jul. 201576.2%
Aug. 201576.9%
Sep. 201576.4%
Oct. 201574.6%
Nov. 201575.6%
Dec. 201575.0%
Jan. 201676.3%
Feb. 201675.8%
Mar. 201674.3%
Apr. 201674.9%
May 201677.3%
Jun. 201675.9%
Jul. 201676.2%
Aug. 201675.0%
Sep. 201674.6%
Oct. 201674.8%
Nov. 201674.1%
Dec. 201673.6%
Jan. 201775.2%
Feb. 201775.9%
Mar. 201772.5%
Apr. 201775.5%
May 201774.5%
Jun. 201773.9%
Jul. 201774.8%
Aug. 201774.9%
Sep. 201773.6%
Oct. 201774.5%
Nov. 201776.0%
Dec. 201774.7%
Jan. 201875.2%
Feb. 201875.1%
Mar. 201873.6%
Apr. 201874.6%
May 201874.7%
Jun. 201873.3%
Jul. 201875.2%
Aug. 201874.5%
Sep. 201874.4%
Oct. 201873.7%
Nov. 201872.4%
Dec. 201872.3%
Jan. 201972.9%
Feb. 201975.9%
Mar. 201975.4%
Apr. 201975.3%
May 201974.0%
Jun. 201975.0%
Jul. 201974.9%
Aug. 201975.3%
Sep. 201975.6%
Oct. 201975.5%
Nov. 201974.1%
Dec. 201974.3%
Jan. 202074.3%
Feb. 202074.5%
Mar. 202071.6%
Apr. 202064.7%
May 202065.6%
Jun. 202071.2%
Jul. 202073.0%
Aug. 202075.1%
Sep. 202073.1%
Oct. 202072.9%
Nov. 202071.2%
Dec. 202070.9%
Jan. 202172.7%
Feb. 202175.4%
Mar. 202172.5%
Apr. 202173.6%
May 202174.1%
Jun. 202173.5%
Jul. 202175.7%
Aug. 202174.5%
Sep. 202175.1%
Oct. 202175.3%
Nov. 202177.7%
Dec. 202176.5%
Jan. 202277.4%
Feb. 202276.0%
Mar. 202277.1%
Apr. 202278.4%
May 202274.2%
Jun. 202276.3%
Jul. 202276.1%
Aug. 202276.1%
Sep. 202275.1%
Oct. 202274.9%
Nov. 202273.8%
Dec. 202275.2%
Jan. 202374.9%
Feb. 202375.6%
Mar. 202374.8%
Apr. 202376.8%
May 202377.5%
Jun. 202378.2%
Jul. 202378.7%
Aug. 202378.4%
Sep. 202378.2%
Oct. 202377.1%
Nov. 202377.6%
Dec. 202375.5%
Jan. 202476.7%
Feb. 202474.9%
Mar. 202475.5%
Apr. 202475.7%
May 202478.4%
Jun. 202475.7%
Jul. 202477.5%
Aug. 202474.9%
Sep. 202475.7%
Oct. 202472.9%
Nov. 202476.3%
Dec. 202476.2%
Jan. 202577.7%
Feb. 202579.6%
Mar. 202573.1%
Apr. 202569.4%
May 202568.5%
Jun. 202570.2%
Jul. 202572.6%
Aug. 202572.4%
Sep. 202571.0%
Oct. 202567.3%
Nov. 202568.4%
Dec. 202567.4%
Jan. 202667.8%
Feb. 202666.7%
Mar. 202667.0%
Apr. 202669.3%
May 202669.4%
Jun. 202669.5%
Jul. 202666.0%
Aug. 202669.9%
Sep. 202670.2%

2. The targeted sectors

Products hit by sectoral US tariffs, cars, steel and aluminium, are falling; energy is rising.

Exports to the United States by product, January to September

Statistics Canada, customs basis, exports of Canadian products. Cars and parts: C$49.2bn in 2026, down 9.2% over a year; metal and mineral products: down 9.8%.

  • Energy
  • Metal and mineral products
  • Cars and parts

Source:Statistics Canada

Show the chart data
PeriodCars and partsMetal and mineral productsEnergy
Jan. 2024 – Sep. 2024C$56.5bnC$37.5bnC$129.3bn
Jan. 2025 – Sep. 2025C$54.2bnC$38.7bnC$120.7bn
Jan. 2026 – Sep. 2026C$49.2bnC$34.9bnC$138.7bn

3. Output and jobs

The Canadian economy keeps growing slowly; car production swings strongly from month to month.

Output in volume (December 2024 = 100)

GDP at basic prices, whole economy, manufacturing, motor vehicles and parts. Latest month: Dec. 2024 – Aug. 2026.

  • Cars and parts
  • Manufacturing
  • GDP

Source:Statistics Canada

Show the chart data
PeriodGDPManufacturingCars and parts
Jan. 202293.3105.288.0
Feb. 202294.3105.595.6
Mar. 202294.8106.0101.4
Apr. 202294.8105.4101.1
May 202295.1103.798.8
Jun. 202295.5105.196.4
Jul. 202295.6104.399.8
Aug. 202295.9103.998.0
Sep. 202296.1103.995.5
Oct. 202296.0102.692.9
Nov. 202295.9102.2101.5
Dec. 202295.6102.3107.4
Jan. 202396.5104.5113.1
Feb. 202396.8104.7113.5
Mar. 202397.1105.5111.4
Apr. 202397.1105.5114.5
May 202397.2105.9121.1
Jun. 202397.0104.8121.2
Jul. 202397.1103.9121.4
Aug. 202397.2103.7121.7
Sep. 202397.2103.6118.1
Oct. 202397.3102.7114.2
Nov. 202397.5102.7112.7
Dec. 202397.4101.7107.1
Jan. 202497.7101.4109.5
Feb. 202498.3102.2106.4
Mar. 202498.3100.9103.3
Apr. 202498.6101.1104.4
May 202498.8101.8103.3
Jun. 202499.0101.8101.8
Jul. 202499.2101.9102.4
Aug. 202499.3101.5101.7
Sep. 202499.6101.3102.2
Oct. 2024100.0101.6103.3
Nov. 202499.8101.3102.5
Dec. 2024100.0100.0100.0
Jan. 2025100.5101.4105.6
Feb. 2025100.4101.6103.3
Mar. 2025100.6100.6106.1
Apr. 2025100.599.2101.3
May 2025100.398.199.9
Jun. 2025100.397.595.6
Jul. 2025100.999.2102.6
Aug. 2025100.998.1102.0
Sep. 2025101.199.2105.3
Oct. 2025100.898.0105.4
Nov. 2025100.996.798.2
Dec. 2025101.097.497.4
Jan. 2026101.095.986.3
Feb. 2026101.197.393.9
Mar. 2026101.097.398.8
Apr. 2026101.698.5105.0
May 2026102.099.0103.3
Jun. 2026102.399.6105.1
Jul. 2026102.499.6107.0
Aug. 2026102.499.9100.9

Unemployment rate

Labour Force Survey, 15 and over, seasonally adjusted. Recent low: 4.8% in Jul. 2022.

Source:Statistics Canada

Show the chart data
PeriodUnemployment
Jan. 20156.8%
Feb. 20156.9%
Mar. 20156.9%
Apr. 20157.0%
May 20156.9%
Jun. 20156.9%
Jul. 20157.0%
Aug. 20157.1%
Sep. 20157.1%
Oct. 20157.0%
Nov. 20157.1%
Dec. 20157.3%
Jan. 20167.2%
Feb. 20167.3%
Mar. 20167.2%
Apr. 20167.3%
May 20167.1%
Jun. 20167.0%
Jul. 20167.0%
Aug. 20166.9%
Sep. 20167.0%
Oct. 20166.9%
Nov. 20166.8%
Dec. 20166.9%
Jan. 20176.9%
Feb. 20176.6%
Mar. 20176.7%
Apr. 20176.5%
May 20176.6%
Jun. 20176.5%
Jul. 20176.3%
Aug. 20176.2%
Sep. 20176.2%
Oct. 20176.3%
Nov. 20176.2%
Dec. 20176.0%
Jan. 20185.9%
Feb. 20186.0%
Mar. 20185.8%
Apr. 20185.8%
May 20185.9%
Jun. 20186.0%
Jul. 20185.9%
Aug. 20186.0%
Sep. 20185.8%
Oct. 20185.6%
Nov. 20185.7%
Dec. 20185.6%
Jan. 20195.7%
Feb. 20195.8%
Mar. 20195.8%
Apr. 20195.7%
May 20195.5%
Jun. 20195.6%
Jul. 20195.7%
Aug. 20195.7%
Sep. 20195.6%
Oct. 20195.6%
Nov. 20195.9%
Dec. 20195.6%
Jan. 20205.5%
Feb. 20205.8%
Mar. 20208.5%
Apr. 202013.7%
May 202014.2%
Jun. 202012.6%
Jul. 202010.9%
Aug. 202010.1%
Sep. 20209.1%
Oct. 20209.0%
Nov. 20208.6%
Dec. 20208.9%
Jan. 20219.2%
Feb. 20218.5%
Mar. 20217.7%
Apr. 20218.2%
May 20218.3%
Jun. 20217.9%
Jul. 20217.4%
Aug. 20217.1%
Sep. 20217.0%
Oct. 20216.5%
Nov. 20216.1%
Dec. 20215.9%
Jan. 20226.4%
Feb. 20225.5%
Mar. 20225.4%
Apr. 20225.4%
May 20225.2%
Jun. 20224.9%
Jul. 20224.8%
Aug. 20225.2%
Sep. 20225.1%
Oct. 20225.1%
Nov. 20225.0%
Dec. 20225.0%
Jan. 20235.1%
Feb. 20235.2%
Mar. 20235.1%
Apr. 20235.1%
May 20235.2%
Jun. 20235.4%
Jul. 20235.4%
Aug. 20235.4%
Sep. 20235.5%
Oct. 20235.7%
Nov. 20235.8%
Dec. 20235.8%
Jan. 20245.7%
Feb. 20245.9%
Mar. 20246.1%
Apr. 20246.2%
May 20246.3%
Jun. 20246.4%
Jul. 20246.4%
Aug. 20246.6%
Sep. 20246.5%
Oct. 20246.6%
Nov. 20247.0%
Dec. 20246.7%
Jan. 20256.7%
Feb. 20256.6%
Mar. 20256.8%
Apr. 20256.9%
May 20257.0%
Jun. 20256.9%
Jul. 20256.9%
Aug. 20257.1%
Sep. 20257.1%
Oct. 20256.9%
Nov. 20256.6%
Dec. 20256.8%
Jan. 20266.5%
Feb. 20266.7%
Mar. 20266.7%
Apr. 20266.9%
May 20266.6%
Jun. 20266.5%
Jul. 20266.4%
Aug. 20266.4%
Sep. 20266.5%
Oct. 20266.7%

4. The monetary response

The Bank of Canada cut its policy rate from 2024 to 2025, then raised it in October 2026.

Bank of Canada policy rate

Target for the overnight rate, end of month (BIS). Latest month: Oct. 2026.

Source:Bank for International Settlements (Bank of Canada)

Show the chart data
PeriodPolicy rate
Jan. 20150.75%
Feb. 20150.75%
Mar. 20150.75%
Apr. 20150.75%
May 20150.75%
Jun. 20150.75%
Jul. 20150.50%
Aug. 20150.50%
Sep. 20150.50%
Oct. 20150.50%
Nov. 20150.50%
Dec. 20150.50%
Jan. 20160.50%
Feb. 20160.50%
Mar. 20160.50%
Apr. 20160.50%
May 20160.50%
Jun. 20160.50%
Jul. 20160.50%
Aug. 20160.50%
Sep. 20160.50%
Oct. 20160.50%
Nov. 20160.50%
Dec. 20160.50%
Jan. 20170.50%
Feb. 20170.50%
Mar. 20170.50%
Apr. 20170.50%
May 20170.50%
Jun. 20170.50%
Jul. 20170.75%
Aug. 20170.75%
Sep. 20171.00%
Oct. 20171.00%
Nov. 20171.00%
Dec. 20171.00%
Jan. 20181.25%
Feb. 20181.25%
Mar. 20181.25%
Apr. 20181.25%
May 20181.25%
Jun. 20181.25%
Jul. 20181.50%
Aug. 20181.50%
Sep. 20181.50%
Oct. 20181.75%
Nov. 20181.75%
Dec. 20181.75%
Jan. 20191.75%
Feb. 20191.75%
Mar. 20191.75%
Apr. 20191.75%
May 20191.75%
Jun. 20191.75%
Jul. 20191.75%
Aug. 20191.75%
Sep. 20191.75%
Oct. 20191.75%
Nov. 20191.75%
Dec. 20191.75%
Jan. 20201.75%
Feb. 20201.75%
Mar. 20200.25%
Apr. 20200.25%
May 20200.25%
Jun. 20200.25%
Jul. 20200.25%
Aug. 20200.25%
Sep. 20200.25%
Oct. 20200.25%
Nov. 20200.25%
Dec. 20200.25%
Jan. 20210.25%
Feb. 20210.25%
Mar. 20210.25%
Apr. 20210.25%
May 20210.25%
Jun. 20210.25%
Jul. 20210.25%
Aug. 20210.25%
Sep. 20210.25%
Oct. 20210.25%
Nov. 20210.25%
Dec. 20210.25%
Jan. 20220.25%
Feb. 20220.25%
Mar. 20220.50%
Apr. 20221.00%
May 20221.00%
Jun. 20221.50%
Jul. 20222.50%
Aug. 20222.50%
Sep. 20223.25%
Oct. 20223.75%
Nov. 20223.75%
Dec. 20224.25%
Jan. 20234.50%
Feb. 20234.50%
Mar. 20234.50%
Apr. 20234.50%
May 20234.50%
Jun. 20234.75%
Jul. 20235.00%
Aug. 20235.00%
Sep. 20235.00%
Oct. 20235.00%
Nov. 20235.00%
Dec. 20235.00%
Jan. 20245.00%
Feb. 20245.00%
Mar. 20245.00%
Apr. 20245.00%
May 20245.00%
Jun. 20244.75%
Jul. 20244.50%
Aug. 20244.50%
Sep. 20244.25%
Oct. 20243.75%
Nov. 20243.75%
Dec. 20243.25%
Jan. 20253.00%
Feb. 20253.00%
Mar. 20252.75%
Apr. 20252.75%
May 20252.75%
Jun. 20252.75%
Jul. 20252.75%
Aug. 20252.75%
Sep. 20252.50%
Oct. 20252.25%
Nov. 20252.25%
Dec. 20252.25%
Jan. 20262.25%
Feb. 20262.25%
Mar. 20262.25%
Apr. 20262.25%
May 20262.25%
Jun. 20262.25%
Jul. 20262.25%
Aug. 20262.25%
Sep. 20262.25%
Oct. 20262.50%

What we know, what we don’t

What the figures establish

  • The US share of Canadian exports has fallen markedly since 2024.
  • Exports of cars, steel and aluminium to the United States remain below their 2024 level.
  • GDP has kept growing and unemployment is back to its December 2024 level.

What they don’t tell

  • The effect of Canada’s September 2026 counter-tariffs, which the data cover for only a few weeks.
  • The share of each factor (tariffs, energy prices, exchange rate) in the change in exports: these series do not measure the effect of policies.
  • The outcome of the review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement.

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Sources

Series downloaded from their producers on Nov 12, 2026, the snapshot date. Only published periods are used: no projection.

  • Bank for International Settlements (Bank of Canada) Central bank policy rates (WS_CBPOL), end of month
  • Statistics Canada International merchandise trade, balance-of-payments basis, seasonally adjusted (table 12-10-0011)
  • Statistics Canada International merchandise trade by province, commodity and principal trading partners, customs basis (table 12-10-0175)
  • Statistics Canada Gross domestic product at basic prices, by industry, monthly, chained 2017 dollars (table 36-10-0434)
  • Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey, unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted (table 14-10-0287)