The record trade surplus: China exports its overcapacity
While domestic consumption stays weak, Chinese factories are selling to the rest of the world as never before: exports break records month after month in 2026 and the trade surplus exceeds a trillion dollars a year. Where to, at what prices: the figures of Chinese customs and the IMF.
Scope: China, merchandise trade in current dollars: monthly exports published by customs (since 2022), exports and imports by partner reported to the IMF (since 2014), industrial producer prices (National Bureau of Statistics).
Key points
- Exports are accelerating sharply. According to customs, Chinese exports rose 35.2% over a year in Oct. 2026, 7 months in a row of double-digit growth. They reached $447bn in Sep. 2026, well above the previous monthly record known to the IMF ($358bn in Dec. 2025).
- A surplus of over a trillion. The trade surplus reached $1,195bn in 2025, against $679bn in 2015, and $1,228bn over the latest twelve months known (Aug. 2025 – Jul. 2026), despite imports rising 24.7% over a year since January.
- The United States matters less. It received only 11.1% of Chinese exports in 2025, against 19.2% in 2018. Over Jan. 2026 – Jul. 2026, sales to the United States grew 2.5% over a year, against 16.6% to the European Union and 24.3% to emerging Asia.
- Asia and Europe take over. In 2025, China exported $765bn to emerging and developing Asia and $561bn to the European Union, against $421bn to the United States.
- Industrial prices have stopped falling. Producer prices fell 41 months in a row until Oct. 2022 – Feb. 2026; they have been rising again since Mar. 2026 (5.7% over a year in Oct. 2026).
How to read these figures
Chinese customs publish each month the value of exports in dollars and their change over a year; until 2025, January and February were published together, hence a single February point in those years (the growth rate remains comparable). The IMF series use the figures reported by China: exports valued at the border (FOB), imports including freight and insurance (CIF). The surplus is the difference between the two.
Amounts are in current dollars: a rise can come from volumes, prices or the exchange rate. Producer prices measure factory-gate selling prices of industrial products on the Chinese market. Partner groups are the IMF’s; they do not add up to the total (other countries are not included).
1. Record exports
After a slowdown at the end of 2025, export growth picked up strongly in spring 2026 and exceeded a third over a year in the autumn.
Chinese exports, change over a year
In dollars, from the monthly customs releases. Until 2025, the February point covers January and February.
Source:General Administration of Customs of China (海关总署)
Show the chart data
| Period | Exports |
|---|---|
| Feb. 2022 | 16.3% |
| Mar. 2022 | 14.7% |
| Apr. 2022 | 3.9% |
| May 2022 | 16.9% |
| Jun. 2022 | 17.9% |
| Jul. 2022 | 18.0% |
| Aug. 2022 | 7.1% |
| Sep. 2022 | 5.7% |
| Oct. 2022 | −0.3% |
| Nov. 2022 | −8.7% |
| Dec. 2022 | −9.9% |
| Feb. 2023 | −6.8% |
| Mar. 2023 | 14.8% |
| Apr. 2023 | 8.5% |
| May 2023 | −7.5% |
| Jun. 2023 | −12.4% |
| Jul. 2023 | −14.5% |
| Aug. 2023 | −8.8% |
| Sep. 2023 | −6.2% |
| Oct. 2023 | −6.4% |
| Nov. 2023 | 0.5% |
| Dec. 2023 | 2.3% |
| Feb. 2024 | 7.1% |
| Mar. 2024 | −7.5% |
| Apr. 2024 | 1.5% |
| May 2024 | 7.6% |
| Jun. 2024 | 8.6% |
| Jul. 2024 | 7.0% |
| Aug. 2024 | 8.7% |
| Sep. 2024 | 2.4% |
| Oct. 2024 | 12.7% |
| Nov. 2024 | 6.7% |
| Dec. 2024 | 10.7% |
| Feb. 2025 | 2.3% |
| Mar. 2025 | 12.4% |
| Apr. 2025 | 8.1% |
| May 2025 | 4.8% |
| Jun. 2025 | 5.8% |
| Jul. 2025 | 7.2% |
| Aug. 2025 | 4.4% |
| Sep. 2025 | 8.3% |
| Oct. 2025 | −1.1% |
| Nov. 2025 | 5.9% |
| Dec. 2025 | 6.6% |
| Feb. 2026 | 39.6% |
| Mar. 2026 | 2.5% |
| Apr. 2026 | 14.1% |
| May 2026 | 19.4% |
| Jun. 2026 | 27.0% |
| Jul. 2026 | 23.9% |
| Aug. 2026 | 25.0% |
| Sep. 2026 | 36.3% |
| Oct. 2026 | 35.2% |
Exports and imports each month
Billions of dollars, data reported to the IMF. Latest month available: Jul. 2026.
- Imports
- Exports
Source:International Monetary Fund (General Administration of Customs)
Show the chart data
| Period | Exports | Imports |
|---|---|---|
| Jan. 2018 | $200bn | $180bn |
| Feb. 2018 | $172bn | $138bn |
| Mar. 2018 | $174bn | $179bn |
| Apr. 2018 | $200bn | $172bn |
| May 2018 | $213bn | $188bn |
| Jun. 2018 | $217bn | $175bn |
| Jul. 2018 | $216bn | $188bn |
| Aug. 2018 | $217bn | $189bn |
| Sep. 2018 | $227bn | $195bn |
| Oct. 2018 | $217bn | $183bn |
| Nov. 2018 | $227bn | $183bn |
| Dec. 2018 | $221bn | $164bn |
| Jan. 2019 | $218bn | $178bn |
| Feb. 2019 | $135bn | $131bn |
| Mar. 2019 | $199bn | $166bn |
| Apr. 2019 | $193bn | $180bn |
| May 2019 | $214bn | $172bn |
| Jun. 2019 | $213bn | $162bn |
| Jul. 2019 | $222bn | $177bn |
| Aug. 2019 | $215bn | $180bn |
| Sep. 2019 | $218bn | $178bn |
| Oct. 2019 | $213bn | $170bn |
| Nov. 2019 | $221bn | $183bn |
| Dec. 2019 | $238bn | $191bn |
| Jan. 2020 | $170bn | $174bn |
| Feb. 2020 | $122bn | $126bn |
| Mar. 2020 | $185bn | $165bn |
| Apr. 2020 | $200bn | $155bn |
| May 2020 | $207bn | $144bn |
| Jun. 2020 | $214bn | $167bn |
| Jul. 2020 | $238bn | $175bn |
| Aug. 2020 | $235bn | $176bn |
| Sep. 2020 | $240bn | $203bn |
| Oct. 2020 | $237bn | $179bn |
| Nov. 2020 | $268bn | $193bn |
| Dec. 2020 | $282bn | $204bn |
| Jan. 2021 | $264bn | $199bn |
| Feb. 2021 | $205bn | $167bn |
| Mar. 2021 | $241bn | $227bn |
| Apr. 2021 | $264bn | $221bn |
| May 2021 | $264bn | $218bn |
| Jun. 2021 | $281bn | $230bn |
| Jul. 2021 | $283bn | $226bn |
| Aug. 2021 | $294bn | $236bn |
| Sep. 2021 | $306bn | $239bn |
| Oct. 2021 | $300bn | $216bn |
| Nov. 2021 | $326bn | $254bn |
| Dec. 2021 | $340bn | $246bn |
| Jan. 2022 | $327bn | $242bn |
| Feb. 2022 | $217bn | $187bn |
| Mar. 2022 | $276bn | $229bn |
| Apr. 2022 | $274bn | $223bn |
| May 2022 | $308bn | $229bn |
| Jun. 2022 | $331bn | $233bn |
| Jul. 2022 | $333bn | $232bn |
| Aug. 2022 | $315bn | $236bn |
| Sep. 2022 | $323bn | $238bn |
| Oct. 2022 | $298bn | $213bn |
| Nov. 2022 | $295bn | $226bn |
| Dec. 2022 | $306bn | $228bn |
| Jan. 2023 | $292bn | $192bn |
| Feb. 2023 | $214bn | $197bn |
| Mar. 2023 | $316bn | $227bn |
| Apr. 2023 | $295bn | $205bn |
| May 2023 | $283bn | $218bn |
| Jun. 2023 | $285bn | $215bn |
| Jul. 2023 | $282bn | $201bn |
| Aug. 2023 | $285bn | $217bn |
| Sep. 2023 | $299bn | $221bn |
| Oct. 2023 | $275bn | $218bn |
| Nov. 2023 | $292bn | $224bn |
| Dec. 2023 | $304bn | $228bn |
| Jan. 2024 | $308bn | $222bn |
| Feb. 2024 | $220bn | $181bn |
| Mar. 2024 | $280bn | $221bn |
| Apr. 2024 | $292bn | $220bn |
| May 2024 | $302bn | $220bn |
| Jun. 2024 | $308bn | $209bn |
| Jul. 2024 | $301bn | $216bn |
| Aug. 2024 | $309bn | $218bn |
| Sep. 2024 | $304bn | $222bn |
| Oct. 2024 | $309bn | $213bn |
| Nov. 2024 | $312bn | $215bn |
| Dec. 2024 | $336bn | $231bn |
| Jan. 2025 | $325bn | $186bn |
| Feb. 2025 | $215bn | $183bn |
| Mar. 2025 | $314bn | $211bn |
| Apr. 2025 | $316bn | $219bn |
| May 2025 | $316bn | $213bn |
| Jun. 2025 | $325bn | $210bn |
| Jul. 2025 | $322bn | $223bn |
| Aug. 2025 | $322bn | $219bn |
| Sep. 2025 | $329bn | $238bn |
| Oct. 2025 | $305bn | $215bn |
| Nov. 2025 | $330bn | $219bn |
| Dec. 2025 | $358bn | $244bn |
| Jan. 2026 | $357bn | $234bn |
| Feb. 2026 | $300bn | $209bn |
| Mar. 2026 | $320bn | $270bn |
| Apr. 2026 | $359bn | $275bn |
| May 2026 | $377bn | $271bn |
| Jun. 2026 | $412bn | $287bn |
| Jul. 2026 | $398bn | $259bn |
2. An extraordinary surplus
China’s trade surplus grew 76% between 2015 and 2025, and keeps climbing in 2026.
Trade surplus, by year
Merchandise exports minus imports, billions of dollars. Complete years.
Source:International Monetary Fund (General Administration of Customs)
Show the chart data
| Period | Surplus |
|---|---|
| 2015 | $679bn |
| 2016 | $547bn |
| 2017 | $448bn |
| 2018 | $367bn |
| 2019 | $430bn |
| 2020 | $538bn |
| 2021 | $689bn |
| 2022 | $889bn |
| 2023 | $859bn |
| 2024 | $993bn |
| 2025 | $1,195bn |
Trade surplus over a rolling twelve months
Sum of the latest twelve months, billions of dollars.
Source:International Monetary Fund (General Administration of Customs)
Show the chart data
| Period | Twelve-month surplus |
|---|---|
| Jan. 2018 | $417bn |
| Feb. 2018 | $460bn |
| Mar. 2018 | $431bn |
| Apr. 2018 | $421bn |
| May 2018 | $405bn |
| Jun. 2018 | $399bn |
| Jul. 2018 | $376bn |
| Aug. 2018 | $361bn |
| Sep. 2018 | $365bn |
| Oct. 2018 | $360bn |
| Nov. 2018 | $365bn |
| Dec. 2018 | $367bn |
| Jan. 2019 | $386bn |
| Feb. 2019 | $356bn |
| Mar. 2019 | $394bn |
| Apr. 2019 | $380bn |
| May 2019 | $396bn |
| Jun. 2019 | $406bn |
| Jul. 2019 | $422bn |
| Aug. 2019 | $429bn |
| Sep. 2019 | $437bn |
| Oct. 2019 | $446bn |
| Nov. 2019 | $439bn |
| Dec. 2019 | $430bn |
| Jan. 2020 | $387bn |
| Feb. 2020 | $379bn |
| Mar. 2020 | $367bn |
| Apr. 2020 | $398bn |
| May 2020 | $419bn |
| Jun. 2020 | $415bn |
| Jul. 2020 | $432bn |
| Aug. 2020 | $457bn |
| Sep. 2020 | $454bn |
| Oct. 2020 | $469bn |
| Nov. 2020 | $507bn |
| Dec. 2020 | $538bn |
| Jan. 2021 | $607bn |
| Feb. 2021 | $648bn |
| Mar. 2021 | $642bn |
| Apr. 2021 | $640bn |
| May 2021 | $622bn |
| Jun. 2021 | $627bn |
| Jul. 2021 | $621bn |
| Aug. 2021 | $621bn |
| Sep. 2021 | $651bn |
| Oct. 2021 | $677bn |
| Nov. 2021 | $673bn |
| Dec. 2021 | $689bn |
| Jan. 2022 | $709bn |
| Feb. 2022 | $702bn |
| Mar. 2022 | $736bn |
| Apr. 2022 | $744bn |
| May 2022 | $777bn |
| Jun. 2022 | $824bn |
| Jul. 2022 | $868bn |
| Aug. 2022 | $889bn |
| Sep. 2022 | $907bn |
| Oct. 2022 | $908bn |
| Nov. 2022 | $906bn |
| Dec. 2022 | $889bn |
| Jan. 2023 | $904bn |
| Feb. 2023 | $890bn |
| Mar. 2023 | $931bn |
| Apr. 2023 | $970bn |
| May 2023 | $957bn |
| Jun. 2023 | $929bn |
| Jul. 2023 | $909bn |
| Aug. 2023 | $898bn |
| Sep. 2023 | $891bn |
| Oct. 2023 | $862bn |
| Nov. 2023 | $861bn |
| Dec. 2023 | $859bn |
| Jan. 2024 | $844bn |
| Feb. 2024 | $867bn |
| Mar. 2024 | $837bn |
| Apr. 2024 | $819bn |
| May 2024 | $836bn |
| Jun. 2024 | $865bn |
| Jul. 2024 | $869bn |
| Aug. 2024 | $891bn |
| Sep. 2024 | $895bn |
| Oct. 2024 | $935bn |
| Nov. 2024 | $964bn |
| Dec. 2024 | $993bn |
| Jan. 2025 | $1,047bn |
| Feb. 2025 | $1,039bn |
| Mar. 2025 | $1,083bn |
| Apr. 2025 | $1,107bn |
| May 2025 | $1,127bn |
| Jun. 2025 | $1,143bn |
| Jul. 2025 | $1,157bn |
| Aug. 2025 | $1,168bn |
| Sep. 2025 | $1,177bn |
| Oct. 2025 | $1,171bn |
| Nov. 2025 | $1,186bn |
| Dec. 2025 | $1,195bn |
| Jan. 2026 | $1,179bn |
| Feb. 2026 | $1,238bn |
| Mar. 2026 | $1,186bn |
| Apr. 2026 | $1,174bn |
| May 2026 | $1,177bn |
| Jun. 2026 | $1,188bn |
| Jul. 2026 | $1,228bn |
3. Markets on the move
Since 2018 and the first US tariffs, the United States’ share of Chinese exports has been falling. Sales to emerging Asia, Latin America, Africa and Europe are rising.
Chinese exports by destination
Billions of dollars a year. IMF country groups.
- Sub-Saharan Africa
- Latin America
- Emerging Asia
- European Union
- United States
Source:International Monetary Fund (General Administration of Customs)
Show the chart data
| Period | United States | European Union | Emerging Asia | Latin America | Sub-Saharan Africa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | $411bn | $297bn | $310bn | $130bn | $77bn |
| 2016 | $390bn | $287bn | $303bn | $113bn | $65bn |
| 2017 | $434bn | $317bn | $332bn | $130bn | $68bn |
| 2018 | $481bn | $355bn | $378bn | $147bn | $73bn |
| 2019 | $419bn | $366bn | $410bn | $150bn | $80bn |
| 2020 | $453bn | $393bn | $422bn | $150bn | $81bn |
| 2021 | $578bn | $519bn | $566bn | $227bn | $107bn |
| 2022 | $583bn | $562bn | $650bn | $251bn | $124bn |
| 2023 | $507bn | $505bn | $616bn | $245bn | $132bn |
| 2024 | $525bn | $517bn | $672bn | $276bn | $131bn |
| 2025 | $421bn | $561bn | $765bn | $296bn | $166bn |
United States’ share of Chinese exports
Exports to the United States divided by the total.
Source:International Monetary Fund (General Administration of Customs)
Show the chart data
| Period | US share |
|---|---|
| 2015 | 18.0% |
| 2016 | 18.2% |
| 2017 | 19.0% |
| 2018 | 19.2% |
| 2019 | 16.8% |
| 2020 | 17.4% |
| 2021 | 17.1% |
| 2022 | 16.2% |
| 2023 | 14.8% |
| 2024 | 14.7% |
| 2025 | 11.1% |
4. Producer prices and exports
From late 2022 to early 2026, Chinese industrial prices fell while exports grew. They have been rising since spring 2026.
Exports and producer prices, change over a year
Exports in dollars (customs); industrial producer prices (National Bureau of Statistics).
- Producer prices
- Exports
Source:General Administration of Customs of China (海关总署)National Bureau of Statistics of China (国家统计局)
Show the chart data
| Period | Exports | Producer prices |
|---|---|---|
| Feb. 2022 | 16.3% | 8.8% |
| Mar. 2022 | 14.7% | 8.3% |
| Apr. 2022 | 3.9% | 8.0% |
| May 2022 | 16.9% | 6.4% |
| Jun. 2022 | 17.9% | 6.1% |
| Jul. 2022 | 18.0% | 4.2% |
| Aug. 2022 | 7.1% | 2.3% |
| Sep. 2022 | 5.7% | 0.9% |
| Oct. 2022 | −0.3% | −1.3% |
| Nov. 2022 | −8.7% | −1.3% |
| Dec. 2022 | −9.9% | −0.7% |
| Jan. 2023 | – | −0.8% |
| Feb. 2023 | −6.8% | −1.4% |
| Mar. 2023 | 14.8% | −2.5% |
| Apr. 2023 | 8.5% | −3.6% |
| May 2023 | −7.5% | −4.6% |
| Jun. 2023 | −12.4% | −5.4% |
| Jul. 2023 | −14.5% | −4.4% |
| Aug. 2023 | −8.8% | −3.0% |
| Sep. 2023 | −6.2% | −2.5% |
| Oct. 2023 | −6.4% | −2.6% |
| Nov. 2023 | 0.5% | −3.0% |
| Dec. 2023 | 2.3% | −2.7% |
| Jan. 2024 | – | −2.5% |
| Feb. 2024 | 7.1% | −2.7% |
| Mar. 2024 | −7.5% | −2.8% |
| Apr. 2024 | 1.5% | −2.5% |
| May 2024 | 7.6% | −1.4% |
| Jun. 2024 | 8.6% | −0.8% |
| Jul. 2024 | 7.0% | −0.8% |
| Aug. 2024 | 8.7% | −1.8% |
| Sep. 2024 | 2.4% | −2.8% |
| Oct. 2024 | 12.7% | −2.9% |
| Nov. 2024 | 6.7% | −2.5% |
| Dec. 2024 | 10.7% | −2.3% |
| Jan. 2025 | – | −2.3% |
| Feb. 2025 | 2.3% | −2.2% |
| Mar. 2025 | 12.4% | −2.5% |
| Apr. 2025 | 8.1% | −2.7% |
| May 2025 | 4.8% | −3.3% |
| Jun. 2025 | 5.8% | −3.6% |
| Jul. 2025 | 7.2% | −3.6% |
| Aug. 2025 | 4.4% | −2.9% |
| Sep. 2025 | 8.3% | −2.3% |
| Oct. 2025 | −1.1% | −2.1% |
| Nov. 2025 | 5.9% | −2.2% |
| Dec. 2025 | 6.6% | −1.9% |
| Jan. 2026 | – | −1.4% |
| Feb. 2026 | 39.6% | −0.9% |
| Mar. 2026 | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Apr. 2026 | 14.1% | 2.8% |
| May 2026 | 19.4% | 3.9% |
| Jun. 2026 | 27.0% | 4.1% |
| Jul. 2026 | 23.9% | 3.5% |
| Aug. 2026 | 25.0% | 3.8% |
| Sep. 2026 | 36.3% | 5.0% |
| Oct. 2026 | 35.2% | 5.7% |
What we know, what we don’t
What the figures establish
- Chinese exports reach records in 2026, with double-digit growth every month since the spring.
- The trade surplus exceeds a trillion dollars a year.
- The United States’ share of Chinese exports has fallen markedly since 2018, in favour of Asia, Europe and the global South.
What they don’t tell
- The share of volumes and of prices in this rise: the dollar series do not separate them.
- Goods re-exported to the United States through third countries, which do not appear as sales to the United States.
- The scale of industrial overcapacity: these series measure trade, not unused production capacity.
Sources
Series downloaded from their producers on Nov 12, 2026, the snapshot date. Only published periods are used: no projection.
- General Administration of Customs of China (海关总署) Preliminary release: China’s total export and import values, in US dollars (monthly)
- International Monetary Fund (General Administration of Customs) International Merchandise Trade Statistics: exports FOB and imports CIF by partner, US dollars
- National Bureau of Statistics of China (国家统计局) Producer price index for industrial products, year on year (monthly releases)