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  1. China
  2. ›
  3. Housing

Property: the broken engine of China’s economy

New-home prices have been falling for more than four years, consumer prices are stuck near zero after two years of falling producer prices, while exports are breaking records. What Chinese and international official statistics say.

Citoyen·Data as of Nov 12, 2026

Scope: Mainland China: monthly statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics (new-home prices in 70 cities, consumer and producer prices, retail sales, industrial production) since late 2021, Loan Prime Rates (LPR), property prices and household credit (BIS), GDP growth (IMF), merchandise trade (IMF, from customs).

This dossier is updated at least once a quarter with the new figures. Follow it to get a notification at each update.

Key points

New-home prices over a year−3.0%Sep. 2026, average of 70 cities; 54 months of decline in a row
Fall in real prices since the peak25.3%Q3 2021 – Q2 2026, prices adjusted for inflation (BIS)
Consumer prices over a year0.7%Oct. 2026; 0.2% on average from 2023 to 2025
Exports over a year18.3%Jan. 2026 – Jul. 2026, against the same months of the previous year
  • A long fall in house prices. In the 70 cities tracked by the National Bureau of Statistics, new-home prices have been down over a year for 54 months (Apr. 2022 – Sep. 2026). The decline reached 6.2% in Oct. 2024 and is still 3.0% in Sep. 2026.
  • A quarter of real value wiped out. According to the Bank for International Settlements, house prices have fallen 22.6% since their Q3 2021 – Q2 2026 peak, and 25.3% once adjusted for inflation.
  • Consumer prices close to zero. Inflation averaged 0.2% from 2023 to 2025, with 11 months of year-on-year decline. Producer prices fell 41 months in a row (Oct. 2022 – Feb. 2026) before rising back to 5.7% in Oct. 2026.
  • Cheaper credit, households paying down debt. The over-five-year prime rate, the benchmark for mortgages, went from 4.85% in Aug. 2019 to 3.50%. Household debt is down to 57.5% of GDP in Q1 2026, against 61.0% of GDP in Q1 2024.
  • Exports take over. Merchandise exports reached $3,776bn in 2025, for a surplus of $1,195bn, and are up 18.3% over a year in Jan. 2026 – Jul. 2026. Retail sales are up only 1.1% over a year in Sep. 2026.
How to read these figures

The 70-city index is the simple average of the year-on-year changes in new-home prices published city by city by the National Bureau of Statistics (table 1 of the monthly release); it measures reported transaction prices, which developers sometimes have an interest in supporting. The Bank for International Settlements index uses the same source over a longer period, as a level (2010 = 100) and adjusted for inflation.

Retail sales and industrial production for January and February are published together: the figure is shown in February. The LPR (Loan Prime Rate) is set each month from the quotes of large banks, under the guidance of the People’s Bank of China; the over-five-year rate is the benchmark for mortgages. Trade is merchandise trade, in current dollars, as reported by customs to the IMF.

1. Four years of falling house prices

New-home prices have been down over a year since spring 2022. The decline deepened in 2024, narrowed in 2025, then widened again in the first half of 2026.

New-home prices in 70 cities, change over a year

Simple average of the 70 cities, each month. Latest month: Sep. 2026, −3.0%.

Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China (国家统计局)

Show the chart data
PeriodNew homes, 70 cities
Nov. 20212.4%
Dec. 20212.0%
Jan. 20221.7%
Feb. 20221.2%
Mar. 20220.7%
Apr. 2022−0.1%
May 2022−0.8%
Jun. 2022−1.3%
Jul. 2022−1.7%
Aug. 2022−2.1%
Sep. 2022−2.3%
Oct. 2022−2.4%
Nov. 2022−2.3%
Dec. 2022−2.3%
Jan. 2023−2.3%
Feb. 2023−1.9%
Mar. 2023−1.4%
Apr. 2023−0.7%
May 2023−0.5%
Jun. 2023−0.4%
Jul. 2023−0.6%
Aug. 2023−0.6%
Sep. 2023−0.6%
Oct. 2023−0.6%
Nov. 2023−0.7%
Dec. 2023−0.9%
Jan. 2024−1.2%
Feb. 2024−1.9%
Mar. 2024−2.7%
Apr. 2024−3.5%
May 2024−4.3%
Jun. 2024−4.9%
Jul. 2024−5.3%
Aug. 2024−5.7%
Sep. 2024−6.1%
Oct. 2024−6.2%
Nov. 2024−6.1%
Dec. 2024−5.7%
Jan. 2025−5.4%
Feb. 2025−5.2%
Mar. 2025−5.0%
Apr. 2025−4.6%
May 2025−4.1%
Jun. 2025−3.7%
Jul. 2025−3.4%
Aug. 2025−3.0%
Sep. 2025−2.7%
Oct. 2025−2.6%
Nov. 2025−2.8%
Dec. 2025−3.1%
Jan. 2026−3.3%
Feb. 2026−3.5%
Mar. 2026−3.6%
Apr. 2026−3.7%
May 2026−3.6%
Jun. 2026−3.5%
Jul. 2026−3.4%
Aug. 2026−3.3%
Sep. 2026−3.0%

House prices, current and real (2010 = 100)

Bank for International Settlements, from the National Bureau of Statistics, each quarter.

  • Real prices
  • Current prices

Source:Bank for International Settlements (National Bureau of Statistics)

Show the chart data
PeriodCurrent pricesReal prices
Q2 200575.988.0
Q3 200577.189.5
Q4 200577.989.7
Q1 200678.088.5
Q2 200679.590.7
Q3 200680.992.5
Q4 200681.892.5
Q1 200782.190.7
Q2 200784.292.7
Q3 200786.593.2
Q4 200789.194.4
Q1 200889.991.8
Q2 200890.892.7
Q3 200891.393.3
Q4 200890.793.7
Q1 200989.792.2
Q2 200990.493.7
Q3 200992.395.7
Q4 200994.897.3
Q1 201097.898.5
Q2 2010100.0100.9
Q3 2010100.4100.7
Q4 2010101.9100.0
Q1 2011103.599.1
Q2 2011104.399.3
Q3 2011104.598.4
Q4 2011104.297.7
Q1 2012103.795.6
Q2 2012103.195.5
Q3 2012103.395.5
Q4 2012103.795.3
Q1 2013105.695.2
Q2 2013108.698.3
Q3 2013111.0100.0
Q4 2013113.1101.0
Q1 2014114.3100.8
Q2 2014114.3101.2
Q3 2014111.798.6
Q4 2014109.296.0
Q1 2015107.893.8
Q2 2015107.693.8
Q3 2015108.293.8
Q4 2015108.894.3
Q1 2016111.594.9
Q2 2016113.897.2
Q3 2016116.499.1
Q4 2016119.2100.9
Q1 2017120.6101.2
Q2 2017123.0103.5
Q3 2017124.4104.3
Q4 2017125.1104.2
Q1 2018125.9103.6
Q2 2018127.7105.8
Q3 2018131.6108.1
Q4 2018134.2109.4
Q1 2019135.4109.5
Q2 2019137.2110.6
Q3 2019138.5110.4
Q4 2019139.2108.7
Q1 2020139.5107.2
Q2 2020140.3109.9
Q3 2020141.6110.3
Q4 2020142.4111.2
Q1 2021143.7110.6
Q2 2021145.4112.6
Q3 2021145.9113.0
Q4 2021144.7111.1
Q1 2022143.5109.3
Q2 2022142.2107.8
Q3 2022141.1106.5
Q4 2022139.4105.0
Q1 2023138.7104.3
Q2 2023138.4104.8
Q3 2023136.6103.1
Q4 2023134.2101.5
Q1 2024131.599.0
Q2 2024128.296.9
Q3 2024124.993.8
Q4 2024122.792.6
Q1 2025121.691.6
Q2 2025120.090.7
Q3 2025118.088.9
Q4 2025115.786.8
Q1 2026114.085.1
Q2 2026112.984.4

2. Prices that no longer rise

From 2023 to 2025, consumer prices stagnated and producer prices fell every month. Producer prices have been rising since spring 2026; core inflation, excluding food and energy, is 0.8% in Oct. 2026.

Consumer prices, core inflation and producer prices, over a year

National Bureau of Statistics. Core inflation excludes food and energy. Latest month: Oct. 2026.

  • Producer prices
  • Core inflation
  • Consumer prices

Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China (国家统计局)

Show the chart data
PeriodConsumer pricesCore inflationProducer prices
Nov. 20212.3%1.2%12.9%
Dec. 20211.5%1.2%10.3%
Jan. 20220.9%1.2%9.1%
Feb. 20220.9%1.1%8.8%
Mar. 20221.5%1.1%8.3%
Apr. 20222.1%0.9%8.0%
May 20222.1%0.9%6.4%
Jun. 20222.5%1.0%6.1%
Jul. 20222.7%0.8%4.2%
Aug. 20222.5%0.8%2.3%
Sep. 20222.8%0.6%0.9%
Oct. 20222.1%0.6%−1.3%
Nov. 20221.6%0.6%−1.3%
Dec. 20221.8%0.7%−0.7%
Jan. 20232.1%1.0%−0.8%
Feb. 20231.0%0.6%−1.4%
Mar. 20230.7%0.7%−2.5%
Apr. 20230.1%0.7%−3.6%
May 20230.2%0.6%−4.6%
Jun. 20230.0%–−5.4%
Jul. 2023−0.3%0.8%−4.4%
Aug. 20230.1%0.8%−3.0%
Sep. 20230.0%0.8%−2.5%
Oct. 2023−0.2%0.6%−2.6%
Nov. 2023−0.5%0.6%−3.0%
Dec. 2023−0.3%0.6%−2.7%
Jan. 2024−0.8%0.4%−2.5%
Feb. 20240.7%1.2%−2.7%
Mar. 20240.1%0.6%−2.8%
Apr. 20240.3%0.7%−2.5%
May 20240.3%0.6%−1.4%
Jun. 20240.2%0.6%−0.8%
Jul. 20240.5%0.4%−0.8%
Aug. 20240.6%–−1.8%
Sep. 20240.4%–−2.8%
Oct. 20240.3%0.2%−2.9%
Nov. 20240.2%0.3%−2.5%
Dec. 20240.1%0.4%−2.3%
Jan. 20250.5%0.6%−2.3%
Feb. 2025−0.7%–−2.2%
Mar. 2025−0.1%0.5%−2.5%
Apr. 2025−0.1%0.5%−2.7%
May 2025−0.1%0.6%−3.3%
Jun. 20250.1%0.7%−3.6%
Jul. 20250.0%0.8%−3.6%
Aug. 2025−0.4%0.9%−2.9%
Sep. 2025−0.3%1.0%−2.3%
Oct. 20250.2%1.2%−2.1%
Nov. 20250.7%1.2%−2.2%
Dec. 20250.8%1.2%−1.9%
Jan. 20260.2%0.8%−1.4%
Feb. 20261.3%1.8%−0.9%
Mar. 20261.0%1.1%0.5%
Apr. 20261.2%1.2%2.8%
May 20261.2%1.1%3.9%
Jun. 20261.0%1.0%4.1%
Jul. 20260.5%0.9%3.5%
Aug. 20260.8%1.0%3.8%
Sep. 20260.9%1.0%5.0%
Oct. 20260.7%0.8%5.7%

3. Falling rates, shrinking household debt

Benchmark rates have been cut several times since 2019. Household credit, relative to GDP, has stopped growing and has been falling since Q1 2024.

Loan Prime Rates (LPR), one-year and over five years

CFETS, for the People’s Bank of China, monthly fixing. Latest month: Oct. 2026.

  • Over-five-year LPR
  • One-year LPR

Source:National Interbank Funding Center (CFETS), for the People’s Bank of China

Show the chart data
PeriodOne-year LPROver-five-year LPR
Aug. 20194.25%4.85%
Sep. 20194.20%4.85%
Oct. 20194.20%4.85%
Nov. 20194.15%4.80%
Dec. 20194.15%4.80%
Jan. 20204.15%4.80%
Feb. 20204.05%4.75%
Mar. 20204.05%4.75%
Apr. 20203.85%4.65%
May 20203.85%4.65%
Jun. 20203.85%4.65%
Jul. 20203.85%4.65%
Aug. 20203.85%4.65%
Sep. 20203.85%4.65%
Oct. 20203.85%4.65%
Nov. 20203.85%4.65%
Dec. 20203.85%4.65%
Jan. 20213.85%4.65%
Feb. 20213.85%4.65%
Mar. 20213.85%4.65%
Apr. 20213.85%4.65%
May 20213.85%4.65%
Jun. 20213.85%4.65%
Jul. 20213.85%4.65%
Aug. 20213.85%4.65%
Sep. 20213.85%4.65%
Oct. 20213.85%4.65%
Nov. 20213.85%4.65%
Dec. 20213.80%4.65%
Jan. 20223.70%4.60%
Feb. 20223.70%4.60%
Mar. 20223.70%4.60%
Apr. 20223.70%4.60%
May 20223.70%4.45%
Jun. 20223.70%4.45%
Jul. 20223.70%4.45%
Aug. 20223.65%4.30%
Sep. 20223.65%4.30%
Oct. 20223.65%4.30%
Nov. 20223.65%4.30%
Dec. 20223.65%4.30%
Jan. 20233.65%4.30%
Feb. 20233.65%4.30%
Mar. 20233.65%4.30%
Apr. 20233.65%4.30%
May 20233.65%4.30%
Jun. 20233.55%4.20%
Jul. 20233.55%4.20%
Aug. 20233.45%4.20%
Sep. 20233.45%4.20%
Oct. 20233.45%4.20%
Nov. 20233.45%4.20%
Dec. 20233.45%4.20%
Jan. 20243.45%4.20%
Feb. 20243.45%3.95%
Mar. 20243.45%3.95%
Apr. 20243.45%3.95%
May 20243.45%3.95%
Jun. 20243.45%3.95%
Jul. 20243.35%3.85%
Aug. 20243.35%3.85%
Sep. 20243.35%3.85%
Oct. 20243.10%3.60%
Nov. 20243.10%3.60%
Dec. 20243.10%3.60%
Jan. 20253.10%3.60%
Feb. 20253.10%3.60%
Mar. 20253.10%3.60%
Apr. 20253.10%3.60%
May 20253.00%3.50%
Jun. 20253.00%3.50%
Jul. 20253.00%3.50%
Aug. 20253.00%3.50%
Sep. 20253.00%3.50%
Oct. 20253.00%3.50%
Nov. 20253.00%3.50%
Dec. 20253.00%3.50%
Jan. 20263.00%3.50%
Feb. 20263.00%3.50%
Mar. 20263.00%3.50%
Apr. 20263.00%3.50%
May 20263.00%3.50%
Jun. 20263.00%3.50%
Jul. 20263.00%3.50%
Aug. 20263.00%3.50%
Sep. 20263.00%3.50%
Oct. 20263.00%3.50%

Household credit, % of GDP

Bank for International Settlements, each quarter. Latest quarter: Q1 2026.

Source:Bank for International Settlements

Show the chart data
PeriodHousehold credit
Q1 200611.3% of GDP
Q2 200610.7% of GDP
Q3 200610.7% of GDP
Q4 200610.7% of GDP
Q1 200718.1% of GDP
Q2 200718.6% of GDP
Q3 200719.1% of GDP
Q4 200718.6% of GDP
Q1 200818.5% of GDP
Q2 200818.3% of GDP
Q3 200818.1% of GDP
Q4 200817.6% of GDP
Q1 200918.6% of GDP
Q2 200920.2% of GDP
Q3 200922.1% of GDP
Q4 200923.1% of GDP
Q1 201025.2% of GDP
Q2 201026.3% of GDP
Q3 201026.7% of GDP
Q4 201026.8% of GDP
Q1 201127.2% of GDP
Q2 201127.5% of GDP
Q3 201127.5% of GDP
Q4 201127.3% of GDP
Q1 201227.5% of GDP
Q2 201228.0% of GDP
Q3 201228.9% of GDP
Q4 201229.3% of GDP
Q1 201330.3% of GDP
Q2 201331.5% of GDP
Q3 201332.4% of GDP
Q4 201332.7% of GDP
Q1 201433.5% of GDP
Q2 201434.2% of GDP
Q3 201434.7% of GDP
Q4 201435.0% of GDP
Q1 201535.7% of GDP
Q2 201536.6% of GDP
Q3 201537.5% of GDP
Q4 201538.1% of GDP
Q1 201639.2% of GDP
Q2 201640.8% of GDP
Q3 201642.3% of GDP
Q4 201643.4% of GDP
Q1 201744.5% of GDP
Q2 201745.8% of GDP
Q3 201746.9% of GDP
Q4 201747.3% of GDP
Q1 201848.0% of GDP
Q2 201848.9% of GDP
Q3 201850.0% of GDP
Q4 201850.6% of GDP
Q1 201951.5% of GDP
Q2 201952.6% of GDP
Q3 201953.6% of GDP
Q4 201954.4% of GDP
Q1 202056.3% of GDP
Q2 202058.2% of GDP
Q3 202060.0% of GDP
Q4 202060.6% of GDP
Q1 202160.1% of GDP
Q2 202160.0% of GDP
Q3 202160.1% of GDP
Q4 202160.0% of GDP
Q1 202259.9% of GDP
Q2 202260.1% of GDP
Q3 202260.3% of GDP
Q4 202260.1% of GDP
Q1 202360.7% of GDP
Q2 202360.7% of GDP
Q3 202360.8% of GDP
Q4 202360.5% of GDP
Q1 202461.0% of GDP
Q2 202460.5% of GDP
Q3 202460.2% of GDP
Q4 202460.0% of GDP
Q1 202560.2% of GDP
Q2 202559.7% of GDP
Q3 202559.0% of GDP
Q4 202558.0% of GDP
Q1 202657.5% of GDP

4. Growth driven by industry and exports

Official growth remains 5.0% in 2025. Industrial production is growing faster than retail sales, and exports clearly exceed imports.

Retail sales and industrial production, change over a year

National Bureau of Statistics, industrial value added in volume, retail sales in value. January and February published together.

  • Industrial production
  • Retail sales

Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China (国家统计局)

Show the chart data
PeriodRetail salesIndustrial production
Nov. 20213.9%3.8%
Dec. 2021–4.3%
Feb. 20226.7%7.5%
Mar. 2022–5.0%
Apr. 2022−0.2%4.0%
May 2022−1.5%0.7%
Jun. 20223.1%3.9%
Jul. 20222.7%3.8%
Aug. 20225.4%4.2%
Sep. 20222.5%6.3%
Oct. 2022−0.5%5.0%
Nov. 2022−5.9%2.2%
Dec. 2022–1.3%
Feb. 20233.5%2.4%
Mar. 202310.6%3.9%
Apr. 202318.4%5.6%
May 202312.7%3.5%
Jun. 20233.1%4.4%
Jul. 20232.5%3.7%
Aug. 20234.6%4.5%
Sep. 20235.5%4.5%
Oct. 20237.6%4.6%
Nov. 202310.1%6.6%
Dec. 20237.4%6.8%
Feb. 20245.5%7.0%
Mar. 20243.1%4.5%
Apr. 20242.3%6.7%
May 20243.7%5.6%
Jun. 20243.7%5.3%
Jul. 20242.7%5.1%
Aug. 20242.1%4.5%
Sep. 20243.2%5.4%
Oct. 20244.8%5.3%
Nov. 20243.0%5.4%
Dec. 20243.7%6.2%
Feb. 20254.0%5.9%
Mar. 20255.9%7.7%
Apr. 20255.1%6.1%
May 20256.4%5.8%
Jun. 20254.8%6.8%
Jul. 20253.7%5.7%
Aug. 20253.4%5.2%
Sep. 20253.0%6.5%
Oct. 20252.9%4.9%
Nov. 20251.3%4.8%
Dec. 20250.9%5.2%
Feb. 20262.8%6.3%
Mar. 20261.7%5.7%
Apr. 20261.9%5.6%
May 20261.4%4.5%
Jun. 20261.0%5.3%
Jul. 20261.2%4.5%
Aug. 20261.1%5.2%
Sep. 20261.1%5.5%

Merchandise exports and imports, per year

IMF, merchandise trade statistics reported by China, in billions of current dollars. Complete years.

  • Imports
  • Exports

Source:International Monetary Fund (General Administration of Customs)

Show the chart data
PeriodExportsImports
2015$2,280bn$1,602bn
2016$2,137bn$1,589bn
2017$2,280bn$1,832bn
2018$2,501bn$2,134bn
2019$2,499bn$2,069bn
2020$2,598bn$2,060bn
2021$3,368bn$2,679bn
2022$3,604bn$2,715bn
2023$3,422bn$2,564bn
2024$3,580bn$2,587bn
2025$3,776bn$2,581bn

Real GDP growth

IMF, World Economic Outlook, observed years only. Latest year: 2025.

Source:International Monetary Fund

Show the chart data
PeriodGDP growth
19903.9%
199110.2%
199214.3%
199313.9%
199413.1%
199511.0%
199610.0%
19979.3%
19987.9%
19997.8%
20008.6%
20018.3%
20029.2%
200310.1%
200410.1%
200511.4%
200612.7%
200714.2%
20089.6%
20099.4%
201010.6%
20119.5%
20127.8%
20137.8%
20147.5%
20157.0%
20166.8%
20176.9%
20186.8%
20196.1%
20202.3%
20218.6%
20223.1%
20235.4%
20245.0%
20255.0%

What we know, what we don’t

What the figures establish

  • New-home prices have been down over a year without interruption since spring 2022.
  • Consumer prices stayed close to zero from 2023 to 2025, and producer prices fell for more than three years.
  • Merchandise exports reached a record in 2025 and are still growing in 2026.

What they don’t tell

  • The true size of the price fall: the official indices cover reported prices of new homes, not existing ones.
  • Property investment: Citoyen does not yet collect this National Bureau of Statistics series, so it is not used here.
  • The link between the property crisis, weak prices and the export surge: these series do not measure causality.

Stay up to date

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Sources

Series downloaded from their producers on Nov 12, 2026, the snapshot date. Only published periods are used: no projection.

  • Bank for International Settlements Credit to households, % of GDP (WS_TC)
  • Bank for International Settlements (National Bureau of Statistics) Residential property prices, nominal and real (WS_SPP)
  • International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook: real GDP growth (NGDP_RPCH), actual years
  • International Monetary Fund (General Administration of Customs) International Merchandise Trade Statistics: exports FOB and imports CIF, US dollars
  • National Bureau of Statistics of China (国家统计局) Monthly releases: 70-city housing prices, consumer and producer prices, retail sales, industrial production
  • National Interbank Funding Center (CFETS), for the People’s Bank of China Loan Prime Rate (LPR), 1 year and over 5 years