Free meals: Prabowo’s flagship programme put to the budget test
Launched in January 2025, the « Makan Bergizi Gratis » programme is to serve a free meal to schoolchildren, pregnant women and young children. Contested in the street, trimmed twice in June 2026 and suspended during school holidays, it weighs on a budget bound by a legal deficit cap. What the figures on child nutrition and public finances say.
Scope: Indonesia, World Bank nutrition indicators (UNICEF, WHO, World Bank joint estimates; FAO; WHO), general government budget according to the IMF (published years only), rupiahs per dollar (IMF).
Key points
- Stunting is falling but remains common. 23% of children under 5 are too short for their age in 2024, against 37% in 2010. Indonesia is now close to the world average (23%).
- Other deficiencies persist. 8% of young children are too thin for their height in 2023, and 38% of children aged 6 months to 5 years were anaemic in 2019, the latest published year.
- Hunger in the broad sense is rare. Moderate or severe food insecurity affects 4% of the population in 2024, far below the world average (28%); undernourishment, 6%.
- A budget under constraint. The public deficit reaches 2.9% of GDP in 2025, close to the legal cap of 3% of GDP, with low revenue: 13.3% of GDP of GDP, against 19.4% of GDP in 2008.
- A rupiah at its lowest. It took 17,984 rupiahs to buy a dollar in Oct. 2026, 16% more than in Oct. 2024, the month Prabowo Subianto took office.
How to read these figures
Stunting (too short for one’s age) measures chronic malnutrition; wasting (too thin for one’s height), acute malnutrition. Stunting values are estimates modelled by UNICEF, WHO and the World Bank from national surveys, comparable across years and countries; wasting follows the surveys themselves. Food insecurity is measured by the FAO with a questionnaire on access to food.
The budget is that of general government, published by the IMF. Indonesia’s 2003 State Finances Law caps the deficit at 3% of GDP, a cap suspended from 2020 to 2022 during the pandemic. The cost of the free meals programme itself is not drawn: no primary budget document (budget law, financial note, audit office report) could be read, and Citoyen does not reuse amounts quoted in the press.
1. Child nutrition
The programme targets child malnutrition first. Stunting has fallen sharply since 2010, but still affects nearly one child in four.
Children under 5 who are stunted
UNICEF, WHO, World Bank joint estimates, as a percentage of children under 5.
- World
- Indonesia
Source:World Bank (UNICEF, WHO, World Bank Joint Malnutrition Estimates)
Show the chart data
| Period | Indonesia | World |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 39.8% | 33.1% |
| 2001 | 39.6% | 32.7% |
| 2002 | 39.6% | 32.4% |
| 2003 | 39.6% | 32.0% |
| 2004 | 39.6% | 31.6% |
| 2005 | 39.6% | 31.2% |
| 2006 | 39.6% | 30.7% |
| 2007 | 39.3% | 30.1% |
| 2008 | 38.7% | 29.4% |
| 2009 | 38.0% | 28.7% |
| 2010 | 37.0% | 27.9% |
| 2011 | 35.8% | 27.1% |
| 2012 | 34.6% | 26.4% |
| 2013 | 33.5% | 25.8% |
| 2014 | 32.2% | 25.2% |
| 2015 | 31.0% | 24.6% |
| 2016 | 29.8% | 24.1% |
| 2017 | 28.5% | 23.5% |
| 2018 | 27.3% | 23.0% |
| 2019 | 26.1% | 22.6% |
| 2020 | 25.1% | 22.4% |
| 2021 | 24.3% | 22.4% |
| 2022 | 23.7% | 22.6% |
| 2023 | 23.1% | 22.9% |
| 2024 | 22.6% | 23.2% |
Children under 5 who are wasted
Too thin for their height, from national surveys. Latest year: 2023.
Source:World Bank (UNICEF, WHO, World Bank Joint Malnutrition Estimates)
Show the chart data
| Period | Indonesia |
|---|---|
| 2000 | 5.5% |
| 2001 | 5.4% |
| 2004 | 14.4% |
| 2008 | 14.8% |
| 2010 | 12.3% |
| 2013 | 13.5% |
| 2018 | 10.5% |
| 2019 | 8.6% |
| 2021 | 7.1% |
| 2022 | 7.5% |
| 2023 | 8.4% |
Anaemia among children aged 6 months to 5 years
WHO estimates, published up to 2019.
- World
- Indonesia
Source:World Bank (WHO)
Show the chart data
| Period | Indonesia | World |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 43.9% | 48.9% |
| 2001 | 43.0% | 48.1% |
| 2002 | 42.1% | 47.5% |
| 2003 | 41.2% | 46.9% |
| 2004 | 40.5% | 46.3% |
| 2005 | 39.8% | 45.7% |
| 2006 | 39.1% | 45.1% |
| 2007 | 38.5% | 44.4% |
| 2008 | 37.9% | 43.7% |
| 2009 | 37.5% | 43.0% |
| 2010 | 37.1% | 42.4% |
| 2011 | 36.9% | 41.9% |
| 2012 | 36.9% | 41.5% |
| 2013 | 37.0% | 41.2% |
| 2014 | 37.2% | 40.9% |
| 2015 | 37.5% | 40.7% |
| 2016 | 37.8% | 40.5% |
| 2017 | 38.0% | 40.4% |
| 2018 | 38.2% | 40.4% |
| 2019 | 38.4% | 40.5% |
2. Hunger and food insecurity
Across the whole population, access to food is better than on world average: Indonesia’s problem lies more in the quality of children’s diets than in a lack of calories.
Food insecurity and undernourishment
FAO, as a percentage of the population; three-year averages.
- Undernourishment, Indonesia
- Food insecurity, world
- Food insecurity, Indonesia
Source:World Bank (FAO)
Show the chart data
| Period | Food insecurity, Indonesia | Food insecurity, world | Undernourishment, Indonesia |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | – | – | 18.1% |
| 2002 | – | – | 18.1% |
| 2003 | – | – | 18.0% |
| 2004 | – | – | 18.2% |
| 2005 | – | – | 18.4% |
| 2006 | – | – | 18.1% |
| 2007 | – | – | 17.5% |
| 2008 | – | – | 16.5% |
| 2009 | – | – | 15.0% |
| 2010 | – | – | 12.9% |
| 2011 | – | – | 10.9% |
| 2012 | – | – | 9.5% |
| 2013 | – | – | 8.3% |
| 2014 | – | 21.1% | 7.8% |
| 2015 | 6.0% | 21.4% | 7.1% |
| 2016 | 7.3% | 22.4% | 6.6% |
| 2017 | 7.6% | 23.5% | 6.0% |
| 2018 | 7.0% | 24.6% | 6.0% |
| 2019 | 5.8% | 25.0% | 6.4% |
| 2020 | 5.1% | 28.8% | 6.6% |
| 2021 | 4.9% | 28.9% | 6.7% |
| 2022 | 4.7% | 28.5% | 6.6% |
| 2023 | 4.5% | 28.4% | 6.5% |
| 2024 | 4.2% | 28.0% | 6.3% |
3. The budget that must pay for it
Indonesia’s public revenue is among the lowest of large economies. After the peak of 6.1% of GDP in 2020, the deficit returned below the legal cap, then moved closer to it.
Public revenue and spending
General government, as a percentage of GDP (IMF).
- Spending
- Revenue
Source:International Monetary Fund
Show the chart data
| Period | Revenue | Spending |
|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 17.9% of GDP | 17.4% of GDP |
| 2006 | 18.9% of GDP | 18.4% of GDP |
| 2007 | 17.8% of GDP | 18.7% of GDP |
| 2008 | 19.4% of GDP | 19.4% of GDP |
| 2009 | 15.4% of GDP | 17.0% of GDP |
| 2010 | 15.6% of GDP | 16.9% of GDP |
| 2011 | 17.0% of GDP | 17.7% of GDP |
| 2012 | 17.2% of GDP | 18.8% of GDP |
| 2013 | 16.9% of GDP | 18.8% of GDP |
| 2014 | 16.6% of GDP | 18.4% of GDP |
| 2015 | 14.9% of GDP | 17.6% of GDP |
| 2016 | 14.4% of GDP | 16.9% of GDP |
| 2017 | 14.2% of GDP | 16.4% of GDP |
| 2018 | 14.9% of GDP | 16.6% of GDP |
| 2019 | 14.3% of GDP | 16.4% of GDP |
| 2020 | 12.4% of GDP | 18.4% of GDP |
| 2021 | 13.7% of GDP | 18.1% of GDP |
| 2022 | 15.0% of GDP | 17.3% of GDP |
| 2023 | 15.0% of GDP | 16.6% of GDP |
| 2024 | 14.6% of GDP | 16.9% of GDP |
| 2025 | 13.3% of GDP | 16.2% of GDP |
Public balance
As a percentage of GDP. The dotted line marks the legal deficit cap, 3% of GDP.
Source:International Monetary Fund
Show the chart data
| Period | Public balance |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 0.5% of GDP |
| 2006 | 0.5% of GDP |
| 2007 | −1.0% of GDP |
| 2008 | 0.1% of GDP |
| 2009 | −1.6% of GDP |
| 2010 | −1.2% of GDP |
| 2011 | −0.7% of GDP |
| 2012 | −1.6% of GDP |
| 2013 | −2.0% of GDP |
| 2014 | −1.8% of GDP |
| 2015 | −2.7% of GDP |
| 2016 | −2.6% of GDP |
| 2017 | −2.3% of GDP |
| 2018 | −1.7% of GDP |
| 2019 | −2.1% of GDP |
| 2020 | −6.1% of GDP |
| 2021 | −4.4% of GDP |
| 2022 | −2.3% of GDP |
| 2023 | −1.6% of GDP |
| 2024 | −2.3% of GDP |
| 2025 | −2.9% of GDP |
4. The rupiah
A weaker rupiah makes imports dearer, food included. Its lowest point was reached in Jul. 2026 (18,008 rupiahs).
Rupiahs per dollar, monthly average
A rising curve means a weaker rupiah.
Source:International Monetary Fund
Show the chart data
| Period | Rupiahs per dollar |
|---|---|
| Jan. 2015 | 12,579 rupiahs |
| Feb. 2015 | 12,750 rupiahs |
| Mar. 2015 | 13,067 rupiahs |
| Apr. 2015 | 12,948 rupiahs |
| May 2015 | 13,141 rupiahs |
| Jun. 2015 | 13,313 rupiahs |
| Jul. 2015 | 13,375 rupiahs |
| Aug. 2015 | 13,782 rupiahs |
| Sep. 2015 | 14,396 rupiahs |
| Oct. 2015 | 13,796 rupiahs |
| Nov. 2015 | 13,673 rupiahs |
| Dec. 2015 | 13,855 rupiahs |
| Jan. 2016 | 13,889 rupiahs |
| Feb. 2016 | 13,516 rupiahs |
| Mar. 2016 | 13,193 rupiahs |
| Apr. 2016 | 13,180 rupiahs |
| May 2016 | 13,420 rupiahs |
| Jun. 2016 | 13,355 rupiahs |
| Jul. 2016 | 13,119 rupiahs |
| Aug. 2016 | 13,165 rupiahs |
| Sep. 2016 | 13,118 rupiahs |
| Oct. 2016 | 13,017 rupiahs |
| Nov. 2016 | 13,311 rupiahs |
| Dec. 2016 | 13,418 rupiahs |
| Jan. 2017 | 13,359 rupiahs |
| Feb. 2017 | 13,341 rupiahs |
| Mar. 2017 | 13,346 rupiahs |
| Apr. 2017 | 13,306 rupiahs |
| May 2017 | 13,323 rupiahs |
| Jun. 2017 | 13,298 rupiahs |
| Jul. 2017 | 13,342 rupiahs |
| Aug. 2017 | 13,342 rupiahs |
| Sep. 2017 | 13,303 rupiahs |
| Oct. 2017 | 13,526 rupiahs |
| Nov. 2017 | 13,527 rupiahs |
| Dec. 2017 | 13,556 rupiahs |
| Jan. 2018 | 13,380 rupiahs |
| Feb. 2018 | 13,590 rupiahs |
| Mar. 2018 | 13,758 rupiahs |
| Apr. 2018 | 13,803 rupiahs |
| May 2018 | 14,060 rupiahs |
| Jun. 2018 | 14,036 rupiahs |
| Jul. 2018 | 14,415 rupiahs |
| Aug. 2018 | 14,560 rupiahs |
| Sep. 2018 | 14,869 rupiahs |
| Oct. 2018 | 15,179 rupiahs |
| Nov. 2018 | 14,697 rupiahs |
| Dec. 2018 | 14,497 rupiahs |
| Jan. 2019 | 14,163 rupiahs |
| Feb. 2019 | 14,035 rupiahs |
| Mar. 2019 | 14,211 rupiahs |
| Apr. 2019 | 14,143 rupiahs |
| May 2019 | 14,393 rupiahs |
| Jun. 2019 | 14,227 rupiahs |
| Jul. 2019 | 14,044 rupiahs |
| Aug. 2019 | 14,242 rupiahs |
| Sep. 2019 | 14,111 rupiahs |
| Oct. 2019 | 14,118 rupiahs |
| Nov. 2019 | 14,069 rupiahs |
| Dec. 2019 | 14,017 rupiahs |
| Jan. 2020 | 13,732 rupiahs |
| Feb. 2020 | 13,776 rupiahs |
| Mar. 2020 | 15,195 rupiahs |
| Apr. 2020 | 15,867 rupiahs |
| May 2020 | 14,906 rupiahs |
| Jun. 2020 | 14,196 rupiahs |
| Jul. 2020 | 14,582 rupiahs |
| Aug. 2020 | 14,725 rupiahs |
| Sep. 2020 | 14,848 rupiahs |
| Oct. 2020 | 14,749 rupiahs |
| Nov. 2020 | 14,237 rupiahs |
| Dec. 2020 | 14,173 rupiahs |
| Jan. 2021 | 14,062 rupiahs |
| Feb. 2021 | 14,042 rupiahs |
| Mar. 2021 | 14,417 rupiahs |
| Apr. 2021 | 14,558 rupiahs |
| May 2021 | 14,323 rupiahs |
| Jun. 2021 | 14,338 rupiahs |
| Jul. 2021 | 14,511 rupiahs |
| Aug. 2021 | 14,398 rupiahs |
| Sep. 2021 | 14,257 rupiahs |
| Oct. 2021 | 14,198 rupiahs |
| Nov. 2021 | 14,264 rupiahs |
| Dec. 2021 | 14,329 rupiahs |
| Jan. 2022 | 14,335 rupiahs |
| Feb. 2022 | 14,351 rupiahs |
| Mar. 2022 | 14,349 rupiahs |
| Apr. 2022 | 14,369 rupiahs |
| May 2022 | 14,608 rupiahs |
| Jun. 2022 | 14,689 rupiahs |
| Jul. 2022 | 14,984 rupiahs |
| Aug. 2022 | 14,851 rupiahs |
| Sep. 2022 | 14,972 rupiahs |
| Oct. 2022 | 15,417 rupiahs |
| Nov. 2022 | 15,659 rupiahs |
| Dec. 2022 | 15,615 rupiahs |
| Jan. 2023 | 15,295 rupiahs |
| Feb. 2023 | 15,126 rupiahs |
| Mar. 2023 | 15,301 rupiahs |
| Apr. 2023 | 14,867 rupiahs |
| May 2023 | 14,811 rupiahs |
| Jun. 2023 | 14,932 rupiahs |
| Jul. 2023 | 15,040 rupiahs |
| Aug. 2023 | 15,245 rupiahs |
| Sep. 2023 | 15,354 rupiahs |
| Oct. 2023 | 15,741 rupiahs |
| Nov. 2023 | 15,617 rupiahs |
| Dec. 2023 | 15,513 rupiahs |
| Jan. 2024 | 15,611 rupiahs |
| Feb. 2024 | 15,665 rupiahs |
| Mar. 2024 | 15,703 rupiahs |
| Apr. 2024 | 16,100 rupiahs |
| May 2024 | 16,084 rupiahs |
| Jun. 2024 | 16,329 rupiahs |
| Jul. 2024 | 16,262 rupiahs |
| Aug. 2024 | 15,793 rupiahs |
| Sep. 2024 | 15,341 rupiahs |
| Oct. 2024 | 15,541 rupiahs |
| Nov. 2024 | 15,812 rupiahs |
| Dec. 2024 | 16,024 rupiahs |
| Jan. 2025 | 16,262 rupiahs |
| Feb. 2025 | 16,338 rupiahs |
| Mar. 2025 | 16,456 rupiahs |
| Apr. 2025 | 16,820 rupiahs |
| May 2025 | 16,441 rupiahs |
| Jun. 2025 | 16,311 rupiahs |
| Jul. 2025 | 16,276 rupiahs |
| Aug. 2025 | 16,309 rupiahs |
| Sep. 2025 | 16,512 rupiahs |
| Oct. 2025 | 16,607 rupiahs |
| Nov. 2025 | 16,703 rupiahs |
| Dec. 2025 | 16,699 rupiahs |
| Jan. 2026 | 16,828 rupiahs |
| Feb. 2026 | 16,826 rupiahs |
| Mar. 2026 | 16,912 rupiahs |
| Apr. 2026 | 17,141 rupiahs |
| May 2026 | 17,546 rupiahs |
| Jun. 2026 | 17,923 rupiahs |
| Jul. 2026 | 18,008 rupiahs |
| Aug. 2026 | 17,849 rupiahs |
| Sep. 2026 | 17,743 rupiahs |
| Oct. 2026 | 17,984 rupiahs |
What we know, what we don’t
What the figures establish
- Child stunting has fallen markedly since 2010 and is now close to the world average.
- Food insecurity in the population is low compared with the rest of the world.
- The public deficit has moved closer to the legal cap, with low revenue, and the rupiah has weakened.
What they don’t tell
- The actual cost of the programme and its execution: no primary budget document could be read.
- The programme’s effect on nutrition: these series stop before it can be measured and do not separate its effect from other factors.
- How meals are split between schools, regions and target groups.
Sources
Series downloaded from their producers on Nov 12, 2026, the snapshot date. Only published periods are used: no projection.
- International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook: general government revenue, expenditure and net lending (% of GDP), actual years only
- International Monetary Fund Exchange rates: Indonesian rupiahs per US dollar, period average (ER)
- World Bank (FAO) Prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity, % of population (SN.ITK.MSFI.ZS)
- World Bank (FAO) Prevalence of undernourishment, % of population (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS)
- World Bank (UNICEF, WHO, World Bank Joint Malnutrition Estimates) Prevalence of stunting, height for age, modelled estimate, % of children under 5 (SH.STA.STNT.ME.ZS)
- World Bank (UNICEF, WHO, World Bank Joint Malnutrition Estimates) Prevalence of wasting, weight for height, % of children under 5 (SH.STA.WAST.ZS)
- World Bank (WHO) Prevalence of anaemia among children, % of children aged 6-59 months (SH.ANM.CHLD.ZS)