Rice, yen, wages: the inflation Japan no longer expected

After two decades of stable prices, Japan has lived with inflation above 2% since 2022. A rice price surge, the rice vouchers of Sanae Takaichi’s government, a weak yen, the end of negative rates: what prices, the currency and wages say.

CitoyenData as of Nov 12, 2026

Scope: Japan, consumer price index of the Statistics Bureau (monthly), Bank of Japan exchange rate and policy rate (through the Bank for International Settlements), hourly earnings in manufacturing (OECD, Monthly Labour Survey).

This dossier is updated at least once a quarter with the new figures. Follow it to get a notification at each update.

Key points

Inflation excluding fresh food2.2%Sep. 2026, the measure the Bank of Japan follows

Cereal prices (including rice)22%rise since Dec. 2023 – Sep. 2026, against 7% for all prices

Yen per dollar¥158 per $Oct. 2026, against ¥107 per $ on average in 2020

Bank of Japan policy rate1.25%Oct. 2026, against −0.10% until Feb. 2024

Inflation has settled in. Excluding fresh food, prices are up 2.2% over a year in Sep. 2026; they rose at least 2% in 47 of the 54 months since April 2022, after an average of 0.4% a year in the 2010s.
Rice drove food prices. Prices of cereals, rice included, rose 29.0% over a year in Jun. 2025. Since the end of 2023 they have gained 22%, 3 times as much as all prices (7%); they are now falling (−5.3% over a year in Sep. 2026).
A weak yen. A dollar costs ¥158 per $ in Oct. 2026, against ¥107 per $ on average in 2020: the yen has lost 32% of its value against the dollar, which makes imported energy and food dearer.
The end of negative rates. The Bank of Japan policy rate, at −0.10% until Feb. 2024, has been raised step by step to 1.25% in Oct. 2026.
Wages picking up in manufacturing. Over the latest twelve months, hourly earnings in manufacturing rose on average 4.6% over a year, against 2.0% for prices, a gap of 2.6 pt.

How to read these figures

The consumer price index is that of the Statistics Bureau of Japan, not seasonally adjusted, as a change over twelve months. The Bank of Japan mainly follows the index excluding fresh food (fruit, vegetables, fresh fish), whose prices move with the weather; the index excluding fresh food and energy measures the most stable prices. The Bank of Japan’s price stability target is 2% over a year.

No open series gives the price of rice alone without an e-Stat API key: the dossier reads the cereals item, which includes rice, bread and noodles. Wages are those of manufacturing (hourly earnings, Monthly Labour Survey of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, published by the OECD), averaged over twelve months to smooth bonuses: they are not the earnings of all employees.

1. Inflation settled since 2022

During the 2010s, Japanese prices barely moved. Since 2022, they have risen more than 2% a year in most months, energy excluded too.

Inflation over a year: all items, excluding fresh food, excluding fresh food and energy

Change in the price index over twelve months, %. Dotted line: the Bank of Japan’s 2% target.

Excluding fresh food and energy
Excluding fresh food
All items

Source:Statistics Bureau of Japan (via DBnomics)

Show the chart data

Period	All items	Excluding fresh food	Excluding fresh food and energy
Jan. 2010	−1.0%	−1.0%	−1.0%
Feb. 2010	−0.7%	−0.9%	−1.0%
Mar. 2010	−0.8%	−1.0%	−1.0%
Apr. 2010	−0.9%	−1.1%	−1.2%
May 2010	−0.7%	−0.9%	−1.4%
Jun. 2010	−0.7%	−0.9%	−1.4%
Jul. 2010	−0.9%	−1.1%	−1.6%
Aug. 2010	−1.2%	−1.1%	−1.6%
Sep. 2010	−0.9%	−1.2%	−1.7%
Oct. 2010	−0.2%	−0.8%	−1.3%
Nov. 2010	−0.3%	−0.8%	−1.4%
Dec. 2010	−0.3%	−0.8%	−1.3%
Jan. 2011	−0.5%	−0.8%	−1.3%
Feb. 2011	−0.5%	−0.8%	−1.1%
Mar. 2011	−0.5%	−0.6%	−1.2%
Apr. 2011	−0.4%	−0.3%	−0.8%
May 2011	−0.4%	−0.2%	−0.6%
Jun. 2011	−0.3%	−0.2%	−0.7%
Jul. 2011	0.2%	0.1%	−0.4%
Aug. 2011	0.2%	0.2%	−0.4%
Sep. 2011	0.0%	0.2%	−0.3%
Oct. 2011	−0.2%	−0.1%	−0.6%
Nov. 2011	−0.5%	−0.2%	−0.7%
Dec. 2011	−0.2%	−0.1%	−0.7%
Jan. 2012	0.1%	0.0%	−0.5%
Feb. 2012	0.3%	0.1%	−0.4%
Mar. 2012	0.5%	0.2%	−0.2%
Apr. 2012	0.5%	0.2%	−0.3%
May 2012	0.2%	−0.1%	−0.4%
Jun. 2012	−0.2%	−0.2%	−0.4%
Jul. 2012	−0.5%	−0.3%	−0.4%
Aug. 2012	−0.4%	−0.2%	−0.4%
Sep. 2012	−0.3%	0.0%	−0.5%
Oct. 2012	−0.4%	0.0%	−0.5%
Nov. 2012	−0.1%	0.0%	−0.4%
Dec. 2012	−0.2%	−0.2%	−0.5%
Jan. 2013	−0.3%	−0.3%	−0.6%
Feb. 2013	−0.7%	−0.3%	−0.7%
Mar. 2013	−0.9%	−0.5%	−0.7%
Apr. 2013	−0.7%	−0.4%	−0.5%
May 2013	−0.3%	0.0%	−0.4%
Jun. 2013	0.2%	0.3%	−0.2%
Jul. 2013	0.7%	0.6%	−0.1%
Aug. 2013	0.8%	0.7%	0.0%
Sep. 2013	1.1%	0.6%	0.0%
Oct. 2013	1.2%	0.8%	0.3%
Nov. 2013	1.5%	1.2%	0.5%
Dec. 2013	1.6%	1.3%	0.7%
Jan. 2014	1.4%	1.4%	0.7%
Feb. 2014	1.6%	1.4%	0.8%
Mar. 2014	1.6%	1.4%	0.8%
Apr. 2014	3.4%	3.3%	2.6%
May 2014	3.7%	3.4%	2.7%
Jun. 2014	3.6%	3.4%	2.7%
Jul. 2014	3.5%	3.4%	2.7%
Aug. 2014	3.4%	3.1%	2.7%
Sep. 2014	3.2%	3.0%	2.7%
Oct. 2014	2.8%	2.9%	2.6%
Nov. 2014	2.5%	2.6%	2.5%
Dec. 2014	2.4%	2.6%	2.5%
Jan. 2015	2.4%	2.3%	2.6%
Feb. 2015	2.2%	2.1%	2.5%
Mar. 2015	2.3%	2.2%	2.5%
Apr. 2015	0.7%	0.4%	0.8%
May 2015	0.6%	0.2%	0.8%
Jun. 2015	0.4%	0.1%	0.8%
Jul. 2015	0.2%	−0.1%	0.8%
Aug. 2015	0.1%	−0.2%	0.9%
Sep. 2015	0.0%	−0.2%	1.1%
Oct. 2015	0.3%	−0.3%	1.0%
Nov. 2015	0.2%	0.0%	1.1%
Dec. 2015	0.2%	0.0%	1.1%
Jan. 2016	−0.1%	0.0%	0.9%
Feb. 2016	0.2%	0.0%	1.0%
Mar. 2016	0.0%	−0.3%	0.9%
Apr. 2016	−0.3%	−0.4%	0.8%
May 2016	−0.5%	−0.4%	0.7%
Jun. 2016	−0.3%	−0.4%	0.7%
Jul. 2016	−0.4%	−0.5%	0.5%
Aug. 2016	−0.5%	−0.5%	0.4%
Sep. 2016	−0.5%	−0.5%	0.2%
Oct. 2016	0.1%	−0.3%	0.3%
Nov. 2016	0.5%	−0.3%	0.2%
Dec. 2016	0.3%	−0.2%	0.1%
Jan. 2017	0.5%	0.1%	0.2%
Feb. 2017	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%
Mar. 2017	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%
Apr. 2017	0.4%	0.3%	0.0%
May 2017	0.4%	0.4%	0.1%
Jun. 2017	0.4%	0.4%	0.0%
Jul. 2017	0.4%	0.5%	0.1%
Aug. 2017	0.6%	0.7%	0.2%
Sep. 2017	0.8%	0.7%	0.2%
Oct. 2017	0.2%	0.8%	0.2%
Nov. 2017	0.5%	0.9%	0.3%
Dec. 2017	1.0%	0.9%	0.4%
Jan. 2018	1.3%	0.8%	0.4%
Feb. 2018	1.4%	1.0%	0.5%
Mar. 2018	1.1%	0.8%	0.4%
Apr. 2018	0.6%	0.7%	0.3%
May 2018	0.7%	0.7%	0.3%
Jun. 2018	0.7%	0.8%	0.2%
Jul. 2018	0.9%	0.8%	0.3%
Aug. 2018	1.3%	0.9%	0.4%
Sep. 2018	1.1%	0.9%	0.3%
Oct. 2018	1.4%	1.0%	0.3%
Nov. 2018	0.9%	0.9%	0.3%
Dec. 2018	0.3%	0.7%	0.2%
Jan. 2019	0.2%	0.8%	0.4%
Feb. 2019	0.2%	0.7%	0.4%
Mar. 2019	0.5%	0.8%	0.5%
Apr. 2019	0.9%	0.9%	0.6%
May 2019	0.7%	0.7%	0.5%
Jun. 2019	0.6%	0.6%	0.5%
Jul. 2019	0.6%	0.6%	0.5%
Aug. 2019	0.2%	0.5%	0.5%
Sep. 2019	0.2%	0.4%	0.6%
Oct. 2019	0.2%	0.4%	0.7%
Nov. 2019	0.5%	0.5%	0.8%
Dec. 2019	0.8%	0.7%	0.9%
Jan. 2020	0.8%	0.8%	0.9%
Feb. 2020	0.6%	0.6%	0.7%
Mar. 2020	0.6%	0.6%	0.7%
Apr. 2020	0.2%	−0.1%	0.3%
May 2020	0.1%	−0.1%	0.4%
Jun. 2020	0.1%	−0.1%	0.4%
Jul. 2020	0.2%	0.0%	0.4%
Aug. 2020	0.1%	−0.4%	−0.1%
Sep. 2020	−0.2%	−0.4%	−0.1%
Oct. 2020	−0.6%	−0.8%	−0.3%
Nov. 2020	−1.0%	−1.0%	−0.4%
Dec. 2020	−1.2%	−1.0%	−0.4%
Jan. 2021	−0.7%	−0.7%	0.0%
Feb. 2021	−0.5%	−0.5%	0.0%
Mar. 2021	−0.4%	−0.4%	0.0%
Apr. 2021	−1.1%	−0.8%	−1.0%
May 2021	−0.7%	−0.6%	−0.9%
Jun. 2021	−0.4%	−0.5%	−0.8%
Jul. 2021	−0.3%	−0.2%	−0.6%
Aug. 2021	−0.4%	0.0%	−0.5%
Sep. 2021	0.2%	0.1%	−0.5%
Oct. 2021	0.1%	0.2%	−0.7%
Nov. 2021	0.6%	0.5%	−0.7%
Dec. 2021	0.8%	0.4%	−0.8%
Jan. 2022	0.5%	0.3%	−1.2%
Feb. 2022	0.9%	0.6%	−0.9%
Mar. 2022	1.2%	0.8%	−0.7%
Apr. 2022	2.4%	2.1%	0.8%
May 2022	2.4%	2.1%	0.8%
Jun. 2022	2.3%	2.2%	0.9%
Jul. 2022	2.6%	2.4%	1.2%
Aug. 2022	3.0%	2.7%	1.6%
Sep. 2022	3.0%	3.1%	1.8%
Oct. 2022	3.8%	3.5%	2.5%
Nov. 2022	3.8%	3.7%	2.8%
Dec. 2022	4.0%	4.1%	3.0%
Jan. 2023	4.4%	4.2%	3.2%
Feb. 2023	3.3%	3.1%	3.4%
Mar. 2023	3.3%	3.2%	3.7%
Apr. 2023	3.5%	3.4%	4.1%
May 2023	3.2%	3.1%	4.2%
Jun. 2023	3.3%	3.2%	4.3%
Jul. 2023	3.3%	3.1%	4.3%
Aug. 2023	3.1%	3.1%	4.3%
Sep. 2023	3.0%	2.7%	4.3%
Oct. 2023	3.3%	2.9%	4.0%
Nov. 2023	2.9%	2.5%	3.8%
Dec. 2023	2.6%	2.2%	3.7%
Jan. 2024	2.1%	2.0%	3.5%
Feb. 2024	2.8%	2.8%	3.2%
Mar. 2024	2.7%	2.6%	2.9%
Apr. 2024	2.5%	2.2%	2.4%
May 2024	2.9%	2.6%	2.2%
Jun. 2024	2.9%	2.7%	2.1%
Jul. 2024	2.7%	2.8%	1.9%
Aug. 2024	3.0%	2.8%	2.1%
Sep. 2024	2.5%	2.4%	2.0%
Oct. 2024	2.2%	2.3%	2.2%
Nov. 2024	2.9%	2.6%	2.4%
Dec. 2024	3.7%	3.0%	2.4%
Jan. 2025	4.0%	3.2%	2.6%
Feb. 2025	3.6%	3.0%	2.6%
Mar. 2025	3.6%	3.2%	2.8%
Apr. 2025	3.5%	3.5%	3.0%
May 2025	3.4%	3.6%	3.2%
Jun. 2025	3.2%	3.3%	3.5%
Jul. 2025	3.0%	3.0%	3.4%
Aug. 2025	2.7%	2.7%	3.3%
Sep. 2025	2.8%	3.0%	3.1%
Oct. 2025	3.0%	3.0%	3.1%
Nov. 2025	2.9%	3.0%	3.0%
Dec. 2025	2.1%	2.4%	2.9%
Jan. 2026	1.5%	2.0%	2.7%
Feb. 2026	1.3%	1.5%	2.6%
Mar. 2026	1.4%	1.7%	2.5%
Apr. 2026	1.3%	1.4%	1.9%
May 2026	1.5%	1.4%	1.8%
Jun. 2026	1.7%	1.5%	1.7%
Jul. 2026	2.1%	1.8%	1.9%
Aug. 2026	2.0%	1.8%	2.0%
Sep. 2026	2.2%	2.2%	2.3%

2. Rice and food

The surge in the price of rice, the staple food, dominated public debate in 2025. Cereals rose much faster than prices overall, before falling back in 2026.

Food, cereals and energy, change over a year

Change over twelve months, %. Cereals: rice, bread, noodles and other cereal products.

Energy
Cereals (incl. rice)
Food

Source:Statistics Bureau of Japan (via DBnomics)

Show the chart data

Period	Food	Cereals (incl. rice)	Energy
Jan. 2019	−1.5%	0.7%	4.9%
Feb. 2019	−1.5%	0.6%	4.4%
Mar. 2019	−0.4%	0.6%	5.2%
Apr. 2019	0.7%	0.8%	4.6%
May 2019	0.8%	1.1%	3.7%
Jun. 2019	1.4%	1.3%	1.2%
Jul. 2019	0.9%	1.2%	0.6%
Aug. 2019	0.0%	1.0%	−0.3%
Sep. 2019	0.4%	1.0%	−1.9%
Oct. 2019	0.9%	1.2%	−2.7%
Nov. 2019	1.5%	0.9%	−2.2%
Dec. 2019	1.8%	0.9%	−0.6%
Jan. 2020	1.6%	1.0%	0.8%
Feb. 2020	1.5%	1.1%	−0.2%
Mar. 2020	1.7%	1.0%	−1.7%
Apr. 2020	2.5%	0.6%	−4.7%
May 2020	2.3%	0.5%	−6.6%
Jun. 2020	1.7%	0.2%	−5.1%
Jul. 2020	1.9%	0.1%	−4.4%
Aug. 2020	2.5%	−0.1%	−3.5%
Sep. 2020	1.1%	−0.8%	−3.5%
Oct. 2020	0.6%	−0.8%	−5.8%
Nov. 2020	−0.2%	−1.1%	−7.7%
Dec. 2020	−0.6%	−1.1%	−8.2%
Jan. 2021	−0.2%	−1.0%	−8.7%
Feb. 2021	−0.1%	−1.1%	−7.4%
Mar. 2021	−0.4%	−1.3%	−4.5%
Apr. 2021	−1.3%	−1.4%	0.4%
May 2021	−1.0%	−1.6%	3.8%
Jun. 2021	0.0%	−1.4%	4.3%
Jul. 2021	−0.6%	−1.5%	5.8%
Aug. 2021	−1.1%	−1.1%	5.5%
Sep. 2021	0.9%	−0.7%	7.5%
Oct. 2021	0.4%	−1.2%	11.4%
Nov. 2021	1.4%	−0.9%	15.6%
Dec. 2021	2.1%	−1.2%	16.4%
Jan. 2022	2.0%	0.2%	17.9%
Feb. 2022	2.8%	1.6%	20.5%
Mar. 2022	3.4%	2.2%	20.8%
Apr. 2022	3.9%	2.8%	19.1%
May 2022	4.1%	3.2%	17.1%
Jun. 2022	3.7%	3.9%	16.5%
Jul. 2022	4.4%	5.7%	16.2%
Aug. 2022	4.6%	6.6%	16.9%
Sep. 2022	4.1%	7.1%	16.8%
Oct. 2022	6.3%	8.3%	15.2%
Nov. 2022	6.9%	8.9%	13.4%
Dec. 2022	6.9%	9.5%	15.2%
Jan. 2023	7.4%	8.0%	14.6%
Feb. 2023	7.5%	7.1%	−0.7%
Mar. 2023	7.7%	7.1%	−3.8%
Apr. 2023	8.5%	7.5%	−4.4%
May 2023	8.5%	7.3%	−8.2%
Jun. 2023	8.3%	7.5%	−6.5%
Jul. 2023	8.8%	8.0%	−8.7%
Aug. 2023	8.6%	7.7%	−9.8%
Sep. 2023	8.9%	7.6%	−11.7%
Oct. 2023	8.6%	7.5%	−8.6%
Nov. 2023	7.2%	7.5%	−10.2%
Dec. 2023	6.8%	7.5%	−11.6%
Jan. 2024	5.7%	7.0%	−12.2%
Feb. 2024	4.8%	6.7%	−1.7%
Mar. 2024	4.8%	6.3%	−0.6%
Apr. 2024	4.3%	5.3%	0.1%
May 2024	4.1%	5.9%	7.2%
Jun. 2024	3.7%	5.3%	7.7%
Jul. 2024	2.9%	4.2%	12.0%
Aug. 2024	3.6%	6.5%	12.1%
Sep. 2024	3.5%	10.4%	5.9%
Oct. 2024	3.5%	13.5%	2.3%
Nov. 2024	4.9%	15.0%	6.0%
Dec. 2024	6.3%	15.3%	10.1%
Jan. 2025	7.8%	18.3%	10.8%
Feb. 2025	7.6%	21.9%	6.9%
Mar. 2025	7.3%	25.4%	6.6%
Apr. 2025	6.5%	27.4%	9.3%
May 2025	6.5%	28.7%	8.1%
Jun. 2025	7.1%	29.0%	2.9%
Jul. 2025	7.5%	27.4%	−0.3%
Aug. 2025	7.2%	22.7%	−3.3%
Sep. 2025	6.7%	18.0%	2.3%
Oct. 2025	6.4%	16.7%	2.1%
Nov. 2025	6.0%	15.8%	2.4%
Dec. 2025	5.1%	14.7%	−3.1%
Jan. 2026	3.8%	12.1%	−5.2%
Feb. 2026	3.9%	7.3%	−9.0%
Mar. 2026	3.6%	3.5%	−5.7%
Apr. 2026	3.5%	1.3%	−3.8%
May 2026	3.5%	−0.8%	−2.5%
Jun. 2026	3.2%	−2.5%	−0.1%
Jul. 2026	3.6%	−2.5%	0.9%
Aug. 2026	3.2%	−3.6%	−0.3%
Sep. 2026	2.5%	−5.3%	−0.3%

Cereal prices and all prices

Indices, 2020 = 100. Since the end of 2023: 22% for cereals, 7% for all items.

All items
Cereals (incl. rice)

Source:Statistics Bureau of Japan (via DBnomics)

Show the chart data

Period	Cereals (incl. rice)	All items
Jan. 2015	93.6	97.8
Feb. 2015	93.8	97.6
Mar. 2015	93.8	97.9
Apr. 2015	93.8	98.4
May 2015	93.9	98.7
Jun. 2015	93.8	98.4
Jul. 2015	94.3	98.3
Aug. 2015	94.2	98.4
Sep. 2015	94.7	98.5
Oct. 2015	95.4	98.5
Nov. 2015	95.7	98.1
Dec. 2015	95.4	98.1
Jan. 2016	95.7	97.7
Feb. 2016	95.6	97.8
Mar. 2016	95.7	97.9
Apr. 2016	95.7	98.1
May 2016	95.7	98.2
Jun. 2016	95.5	98.1
Jul. 2016	95.7	97.9
Aug. 2016	95.7	97.9
Sep. 2016	96.0	98.0
Oct. 2016	96.8	98.6
Nov. 2016	96.9	98.6
Dec. 2016	96.9	98.4
Jan. 2017	97.1	98.2
Feb. 2017	96.9	98.1
Mar. 2017	97.0	98.1
Apr. 2017	96.9	98.5
May 2017	97.1	98.6
Jun. 2017	97.1	98.5
Jul. 2017	97.2	98.3
Aug. 2017	97.1	98.5
Sep. 2017	97.4	98.8
Oct. 2017	97.9	98.8
Nov. 2017	98.6	99.1
Dec. 2017	98.5	99.4
Jan. 2018	98.6	99.5
Feb. 2018	98.7	99.5
Mar. 2018	98.7	99.2
Apr. 2018	98.9	99.1
May 2018	98.7	99.3
Jun. 2018	98.7	99.2
Jul. 2018	99.0	99.2
Aug. 2018	99.0	99.8
Sep. 2018	99.3	99.9
Oct. 2018	99.5	100.2
Nov. 2018	99.6	100.0
Dec. 2018	99.4	99.7
Jan. 2019	99.3	99.7
Feb. 2019	99.3	99.7
Mar. 2019	99.3	99.7
Apr. 2019	99.7	100.0
May 2019	99.8	100.0
Jun. 2019	100.0	99.8
Jul. 2019	100.2	99.8
Aug. 2019	100.0	100.0
Sep. 2019	100.3	100.1
Oct. 2019	100.7	100.4
Nov. 2019	100.5	100.5
Dec. 2019	100.3	100.5
Jan. 2020	100.3	100.5
Feb. 2020	100.4	100.3
Mar. 2020	100.3	100.3
Apr. 2020	100.3	100.2
May 2020	100.3	100.1
Jun. 2020	100.2	99.9
Jul. 2020	100.3	100.0
Aug. 2020	99.9	100.1
Sep. 2020	99.5	99.9
Oct. 2020	99.9	99.8
Nov. 2020	99.4	99.5
Dec. 2020	99.2	99.3
Jan. 2021	99.3	99.8
Feb. 2021	99.3	99.8
Mar. 2021	99.0	99.9
Apr. 2021	98.9	99.1
May 2021	98.7	99.4
Jun. 2021	98.8	99.5
Jul. 2021	98.8	99.7
Aug. 2021	98.8	99.7
Sep. 2021	98.8	100.1
Oct. 2021	98.7	99.9
Nov. 2021	98.5	100.1
Dec. 2021	98.0	100.1
Jan. 2022	99.5	100.3
Feb. 2022	100.9	100.7
Mar. 2022	101.2	101.1
Apr. 2022	101.7	101.5
May 2022	101.9	101.8
Jun. 2022	102.7	101.8
Jul. 2022	104.4	102.3
Aug. 2022	105.3	102.7
Sep. 2022	105.8	103.1
Oct. 2022	106.9	103.7
Nov. 2022	107.3	103.9
Dec. 2022	107.3	104.1
Jan. 2023	107.5	104.7
Feb. 2023	108.1	104.0
Mar. 2023	108.4	104.4
Apr. 2023	109.3	105.1
May 2023	109.3	105.1
Jun. 2023	110.4	105.2
Jul. 2023	112.8	105.7
Aug. 2023	113.4	105.9
Sep. 2023	113.8	106.2
Oct. 2023	114.9	107.1
Nov. 2023	115.4	106.9
Dec. 2023	115.3	106.8
Jan. 2024	115.0	106.9
Feb. 2024	115.3	106.9
Mar. 2024	115.2	107.2
Apr. 2024	115.1	107.7
May 2024	115.8	108.1
Jun. 2024	116.3	108.2
Jul. 2024	117.5	108.6
Aug. 2024	120.8	109.1
Sep. 2024	125.6	108.9
Oct. 2024	130.4	109.5
Nov. 2024	132.7	110.0
Dec. 2024	132.9	110.7
Jan. 2025	136.1	111.2
Feb. 2025	140.5	110.8
Mar. 2025	144.5	111.1
Apr. 2025	146.6	111.5
May 2025	149.0	111.8
Jun. 2025	150.0	111.7
Jul. 2025	149.7	111.9
Aug. 2025	148.2	112.1
Sep. 2025	148.2	112.0
Oct. 2025	152.2	112.8
Nov. 2025	153.7	113.2
Dec. 2025	152.4	113.0
Jan. 2026	152.5	112.9
Feb. 2026	150.8	112.2
Mar. 2026	149.5	112.7
Apr. 2026	148.5	113.0
May 2026	147.8	113.5
Jun. 2026	146.3	113.6
Jul. 2026	145.9	114.2
Aug. 2026	142.8	114.3
Sep. 2026	140.4	114.5

3. The yen and the Bank of Japan

The yen has fallen sharply against the dollar since 2021, making imports dearer. The Bank of Japan ended negative rates in 2024 and has raised its rate several times since.

Yen per dollar

Monthly average. The higher the figure, the weaker the yen. Recent high: ¥163 per $ in Jul. 2026.

Source:Bank for International Settlements (Bank of Japan)

Show the chart data

Period	Yen per dollar
Jan. 2010	¥91.3 per $
Feb. 2010	¥90.2 per $
Mar. 2010	¥90.7 per $
Apr. 2010	¥93.5 per $
May 2010	¥92.2 per $
Jun. 2010	¥90.9 per $
Jul. 2010	¥87.5 per $
Aug. 2010	¥85.3 per $
Sep. 2010	¥84.4 per $
Oct. 2010	¥81.8 per $
Nov. 2010	¥82.5 per $
Dec. 2010	¥83.3 per $
Jan. 2011	¥82.6 per $
Feb. 2011	¥82.6 per $
Mar. 2011	¥81.7 per $
Apr. 2011	¥83.4 per $
May 2011	¥81.2 per $
Jun. 2011	¥80.4 per $
Jul. 2011	¥79.4 per $
Aug. 2011	¥77.0 per $
Sep. 2011	¥76.8 per $
Oct. 2011	¥76.7 per $
Nov. 2011	¥77.5 per $
Dec. 2011	¥77.8 per $
Jan. 2012	¥77.0 per $
Feb. 2012	¥78.5 per $
Mar. 2012	¥82.5 per $
Apr. 2012	¥81.3 per $
May 2012	¥79.7 per $
Jun. 2012	¥79.2 per $
Jul. 2012	¥79.0 per $
Aug. 2012	¥78.7 per $
Sep. 2012	¥78.2 per $
Oct. 2012	¥79.0 per $
Nov. 2012	¥81.0 per $
Dec. 2012	¥83.6 per $
Jan. 2013	¥89.0 per $
Feb. 2013	¥93.1 per $
Mar. 2013	¥94.9 per $
Apr. 2013	¥97.9 per $
May 2013	¥101.0 per $
Jun. 2013	¥97.4 per $
Jul. 2013	¥99.7 per $
Aug. 2013	¥97.9 per $
Sep. 2013	¥99.2 per $
Oct. 2013	¥97.8 per $
Nov. 2013	¥100.0 per $
Dec. 2013	¥103.4 per $
Jan. 2014	¥103.9 per $
Feb. 2014	¥102.0 per $
Mar. 2014	¥102.4 per $
Apr. 2014	¥102.5 per $
May 2014	¥101.8 per $
Jun. 2014	¥102.1 per $
Jul. 2014	¥101.7 per $
Aug. 2014	¥103.0 per $
Sep. 2014	¥107.3 per $
Oct. 2014	¥108.0 per $
Nov. 2014	¥116.3 per $
Dec. 2014	¥119.3 per $
Jan. 2015	¥118.3 per $
Feb. 2015	¥118.7 per $
Mar. 2015	¥120.3 per $
Apr. 2015	¥119.6 per $
May 2015	¥120.9 per $
Jun. 2015	¥123.7 per $
Jul. 2015	¥123.4 per $
Aug. 2015	¥123.1 per $
Sep. 2015	¥120.2 per $
Oct. 2015	¥120.0 per $
Nov. 2015	¥122.6 per $
Dec. 2015	¥121.7 per $
Jan. 2016	¥118.2 per $
Feb. 2016	¥114.8 per $
Mar. 2016	¥113.0 per $
Apr. 2016	¥109.6 per $
May 2016	¥108.9 per $
Jun. 2016	¥105.5 per $
Jul. 2016	¥104.1 per $
Aug. 2016	¥101.2 per $
Sep. 2016	¥101.9 per $
Oct. 2016	¥103.8 per $
Nov. 2016	¥108.3 per $
Dec. 2016	¥116.1 per $
Jan. 2017	¥115.1 per $
Feb. 2017	¥112.9 per $
Mar. 2017	¥113.0 per $
Apr. 2017	¥110.3 per $
May 2017	¥112.2 per $
Jun. 2017	¥110.9 per $
Jul. 2017	¥112.5 per $
Aug. 2017	¥109.9 per $
Sep. 2017	¥110.7 per $
Oct. 2017	¥112.9 per $
Nov. 2017	¥112.8 per $
Dec. 2017	¥112.9 per $
Jan. 2018	¥110.9 per $
Feb. 2018	¥107.9 per $
Mar. 2018	¥106.1 per $
Apr. 2018	¥107.7 per $
May 2018	¥109.7 per $
Jun. 2018	¥110.1 per $
Jul. 2018	¥111.4 per $
Aug. 2018	¥111.0 per $
Sep. 2018	¥112.0 per $
Oct. 2018	¥112.9 per $
Nov. 2018	¥113.3 per $
Dec. 2018	¥112.3 per $
Jan. 2019	¥108.9 per $
Feb. 2019	¥110.4 per $
Mar. 2019	¥111.2 per $
Apr. 2019	¥111.6 per $
May 2019	¥109.9 per $
Jun. 2019	¥108.1 per $
Jul. 2019	¥108.2 per $
Aug. 2019	¥106.2 per $
Sep. 2019	¥107.5 per $
Oct. 2019	¥108.1 per $
Nov. 2019	¥108.9 per $
Dec. 2019	¥109.1 per $
Jan. 2020	¥109.3 per $
Feb. 2020	¥110.1 per $
Mar. 2020	¥107.5 per $
Apr. 2020	¥107.7 per $
May 2020	¥107.2 per $
Jun. 2020	¥107.6 per $
Jul. 2020	¥106.8 per $
Aug. 2020	¥106.0 per $
Sep. 2020	¥105.6 per $
Oct. 2020	¥105.2 per $
Nov. 2020	¥104.4 per $
Dec. 2020	¥103.8 per $
Jan. 2021	¥103.8 per $
Feb. 2021	¥105.4 per $
Mar. 2021	¥108.7 per $
Apr. 2021	¥108.9 per $
May 2021	¥109.1 per $
Jun. 2021	¥110.1 per $
Jul. 2021	¥110.3 per $
Aug. 2021	¥109.8 per $
Sep. 2021	¥110.2 per $
Oct. 2021	¥113.1 per $
Nov. 2021	¥114.0 per $
Dec. 2021	¥113.9 per $
Jan. 2022	¥114.9 per $
Feb. 2022	¥115.2 per $
Mar. 2022	¥118.6 per $
Apr. 2022	¥126.3 per $
May 2022	¥128.8 per $
Jun. 2022	¥134.0 per $
Jul. 2022	¥136.7 per $
Aug. 2022	¥135.1 per $
Sep. 2022	¥143.0 per $
Oct. 2022	¥147.3 per $
Nov. 2022	¥142.3 per $
Dec. 2022	¥134.9 per $
Jan. 2023	¥130.5 per $
Feb. 2023	¥132.9 per $
Mar. 2023	¥133.6 per $
Apr. 2023	¥133.6 per $
May 2023	¥137.1 per $
Jun. 2023	¥141.3 per $
Jul. 2023	¥141.0 per $
Aug. 2023	¥144.8 per $
Sep. 2023	¥147.7 per $
Oct. 2023	¥149.6 per $
Nov. 2023	¥149.8 per $
Dec. 2023	¥144.2 per $
Jan. 2024	¥146.2 per $
Feb. 2024	¥149.5 per $
Mar. 2024	¥149.7 per $
Apr. 2024	¥153.8 per $
May 2024	¥155.9 per $
Jun. 2024	¥157.8 per $
Jul. 2024	¥157.9 per $
Aug. 2024	¥146.3 per $
Sep. 2024	¥143.2 per $
Oct. 2024	¥149.7 per $
Nov. 2024	¥153.6 per $
Dec. 2024	¥153.7 per $
Jan. 2025	¥156.4 per $
Feb. 2025	¥151.8 per $
Mar. 2025	¥149.1 per $
Apr. 2025	¥144.2 per $
May 2025	¥144.7 per $
Jun. 2025	¥144.6 per $
Jul. 2025	¥146.9 per $
Aug. 2025	¥147.7 per $
Sep. 2025	¥147.9 per $
Oct. 2025	¥151.5 per $
Nov. 2025	¥155.1 per $
Dec. 2025	¥155.9 per $
Jan. 2026	¥156.7 per $
Feb. 2026	¥155.2 per $
Mar. 2026	¥158.7 per $
Apr. 2026	¥159.1 per $
May 2026	¥158.2 per $
Jun. 2026	¥160.7 per $
Jul. 2026	¥162.5 per $
Aug. 2026	¥158.8 per $
Sep. 2026	¥156.4 per $
Oct. 2026	¥157.9 per $

Bank of Japan policy rate

End-of-month rate, %. First positive rate: 0.05% in Mar. 2024.

Source:Bank for International Settlements (Bank of Japan)

Show the chart data

Period	Policy rate
Jan. 2008	0.50%
Feb. 2008	0.50%
Mar. 2008	0.50%
Apr. 2008	0.50%
May 2008	0.50%
Jun. 2008	0.50%
Jul. 2008	0.50%
Aug. 2008	0.50%
Sep. 2008	0.50%
Oct. 2008	0.30%
Nov. 2008	0.30%
Dec. 2008	0.10%
Jan. 2009	0.10%
Feb. 2009	0.10%
Mar. 2009	0.10%
Apr. 2009	0.10%
May 2009	0.10%
Jun. 2009	0.10%
Jul. 2009	0.10%
Aug. 2009	0.10%
Sep. 2009	0.10%
Oct. 2009	0.10%
Nov. 2009	0.10%
Dec. 2009	0.10%
Jan. 2010	0.10%
Feb. 2010	0.10%
Mar. 2010	0.10%
Apr. 2010	0.10%
May 2010	0.10%
Jun. 2010	0.10%
Jul. 2010	0.10%
Aug. 2010	0.10%
Sep. 2010	0.10%
Oct. 2010	0.05%
Nov. 2010	0.05%
Dec. 2010	0.05%
Jan. 2011	0.05%
Feb. 2011	0.05%
Mar. 2011	0.05%
Apr. 2011	0.05%
May 2011	0.05%
Jun. 2011	0.05%
Jul. 2011	0.05%
Aug. 2011	0.05%
Sep. 2011	0.05%
Oct. 2011	0.05%
Nov. 2011	0.05%
Dec. 2011	0.05%
Jan. 2012	0.05%
Feb. 2012	0.05%
Mar. 2012	0.05%
Apr. 2012	0.05%
May 2012	0.05%
Jun. 2012	0.05%
Jul. 2012	0.05%
Aug. 2012	0.05%
Sep. 2012	0.05%
Oct. 2012	0.05%
Nov. 2012	0.05%
Dec. 2012	0.05%
Jan. 2013	0.05%
Feb. 2013	0.05%
Mar. 2013	0.05%
Apr. 2013	0.05%
Sep. 2016	−0.10%
Oct. 2016	−0.10%
Nov. 2016	−0.10%
Dec. 2016	−0.10%
Jan. 2017	−0.10%
Feb. 2017	−0.10%
Mar. 2017	−0.10%
Apr. 2017	−0.10%
May 2017	−0.10%
Jun. 2017	−0.10%
Jul. 2017	−0.10%
Aug. 2017	−0.10%
Sep. 2017	−0.10%
Oct. 2017	−0.10%
Nov. 2017	−0.10%
Dec. 2017	−0.10%
Jan. 2018	−0.10%
Feb. 2018	−0.10%
Mar. 2018	−0.10%
Apr. 2018	−0.10%
May 2018	−0.10%
Jun. 2018	−0.10%
Jul. 2018	−0.10%
Aug. 2018	−0.10%
Sep. 2018	−0.10%
Oct. 2018	−0.10%
Nov. 2018	−0.10%
Dec. 2018	−0.10%
Jan. 2019	−0.10%
Feb. 2019	−0.10%
Mar. 2019	−0.10%
Apr. 2019	−0.10%
May 2019	−0.10%
Jun. 2019	−0.10%
Jul. 2019	−0.10%
Aug. 2019	−0.10%
Sep. 2019	−0.10%
Oct. 2019	−0.10%
Nov. 2019	−0.10%
Dec. 2019	−0.10%
Jan. 2020	−0.10%
Feb. 2020	−0.10%
Mar. 2020	−0.10%
Apr. 2020	−0.10%
May 2020	−0.10%
Jun. 2020	−0.10%
Jul. 2020	−0.10%
Aug. 2020	−0.10%
Sep. 2020	−0.10%
Oct. 2020	−0.10%
Nov. 2020	−0.10%
Dec. 2020	−0.10%
Jan. 2021	−0.10%
Feb. 2021	−0.10%
Mar. 2021	−0.10%
Apr. 2021	−0.10%
May 2021	−0.10%
Jun. 2021	−0.10%
Jul. 2021	−0.10%
Aug. 2021	−0.10%
Sep. 2021	−0.10%
Oct. 2021	−0.10%
Nov. 2021	−0.10%
Dec. 2021	−0.10%
Jan. 2022	−0.10%
Feb. 2022	−0.10%
Mar. 2022	−0.10%
Apr. 2022	−0.10%
May 2022	−0.10%
Jun. 2022	−0.10%
Jul. 2022	−0.10%
Aug. 2022	−0.10%
Sep. 2022	−0.10%
Oct. 2022	−0.10%
Nov. 2022	−0.10%
Dec. 2022	−0.10%
Jan. 2023	−0.10%
Feb. 2023	−0.10%
Mar. 2023	−0.10%
Apr. 2023	−0.10%
May 2023	−0.10%
Jun. 2023	−0.10%
Jul. 2023	−0.10%
Aug. 2023	−0.10%
Sep. 2023	−0.10%
Oct. 2023	−0.10%
Nov. 2023	−0.10%
Dec. 2023	−0.10%
Jan. 2024	−0.10%
Feb. 2024	−0.10%
Mar. 2024	0.05%
Apr. 2024	0.05%
May 2024	0.05%
Jun. 2024	0.05%
Jul. 2024	0.05%
Aug. 2024	0.25%
Sep. 2024	0.25%
Oct. 2024	0.25%
Nov. 2024	0.25%
Dec. 2024	0.25%
Jan. 2025	0.50%
Feb. 2025	0.50%
Mar. 2025	0.50%
Apr. 2025	0.50%
May 2025	0.50%
Jun. 2025	0.50%
Jul. 2025	0.50%
Aug. 2025	0.50%
Sep. 2025	0.50%
Oct. 2025	0.50%
Nov. 2025	0.50%
Dec. 2025	0.75%
Jan. 2026	0.75%
Feb. 2026	0.75%
Mar. 2026	0.75%
Apr. 2026	0.75%
May 2026	0.75%
Jun. 2026	1.00%
Jul. 2026	1.00%
Aug. 2026	1.00%
Sep. 2026	1.25%
Oct. 2026	1.25%

4. Wages

Between 2022 and 2024, hourly earnings in manufacturing rose more slowly than prices. Since 2025, the reverse.

Hourly earnings in manufacturing and prices, change over a year

Twelve-month averages of the changes over a year, %. Hourly earnings in manufacturing; consumer price index, all items.

Consumer prices
Hourly earnings, manufacturing

Source:OECD (Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Monthly Labour Survey)Statistics Bureau of Japan (via DBnomics)

Show the chart data

Period	Hourly earnings, manufacturing	Consumer prices
Jan. 2019	1.4%	0.9%
Feb. 2019	1.4%	0.8%
Mar. 2019	1.2%	0.7%
Apr. 2019	1.1%	0.8%
May 2019	1.5%	0.8%
Jun. 2019	1.2%	0.8%
Jul. 2019	1.0%	0.7%
Aug. 2019	0.9%	0.6%
Sep. 2019	0.9%	0.6%
Oct. 2019	0.8%	0.5%
Nov. 2019	0.7%	0.4%
Dec. 2019	0.5%	0.5%
Jan. 2020	0.3%	0.5%
Feb. 2020	0.3%	0.6%
Mar. 2020	0.0%	0.6%
Apr. 2020	−0.2%	0.5%
May 2020	−1.1%	0.5%
Jun. 2020	−1.6%	0.4%
Jul. 2020	−2.0%	0.4%
Aug. 2020	−2.5%	0.4%
Sep. 2020	−2.7%	0.3%
Oct. 2020	−2.8%	0.3%
Nov. 2020	−3.3%	0.1%
Dec. 2020	−3.6%	−0.0%
Jan. 2021	−3.4%	−0.1%
Feb. 2021	−3.4%	−0.2%
Mar. 2021	−3.0%	−0.3%
Apr. 2021	−2.6%	−0.4%
May 2021	−1.9%	−0.5%
Jun. 2021	−0.9%	−0.5%
Jul. 2021	−0.3%	−0.6%
Aug. 2021	0.4%	−0.6%
Sep. 2021	0.8%	−0.6%
Oct. 2021	1.1%	−0.5%
Nov. 2021	1.5%	−0.4%
Dec. 2021	2.1%	−0.2%
Jan. 2022	2.1%	−0.1%
Feb. 2022	2.1%	−0.0%
Mar. 2022	2.0%	0.1%
Apr. 2022	2.0%	0.4%
May 2022	1.7%	0.7%
Jun. 2022	1.4%	0.9%
Jul. 2022	1.6%	1.1%
Aug. 2022	1.3%	1.4%
Sep. 2022	1.1%	1.7%
Oct. 2022	1.1%	2.0%
Nov. 2022	1.1%	2.2%
Dec. 2022	1.2%	2.5%
Jan. 2023	1.3%	2.8%
Feb. 2023	1.3%	3.0%
Mar. 2023	1.5%	3.2%
Apr. 2023	1.4%	3.3%
May 2023	1.9%	3.4%
Jun. 2023	2.2%	3.4%
Jul. 2023	2.0%	3.5%
Aug. 2023	2.2%	3.5%
Sep. 2023	2.4%	3.5%
Oct. 2023	2.5%	3.5%
Nov. 2023	2.3%	3.4%
Dec. 2023	2.3%	3.3%
Jan. 2024	2.3%	3.1%
Feb. 2024	2.4%	3.0%
Mar. 2024	2.3%	3.0%
Apr. 2024	2.4%	2.9%
May 2024	2.0%	2.9%
Jun. 2024	1.9%	2.8%
Jul. 2024	2.2%	2.8%
Aug. 2024	2.2%	2.8%
Sep. 2024	2.2%	2.7%
Oct. 2024	2.4%	2.6%
Nov. 2024	2.6%	2.6%
Dec. 2024	2.8%	2.7%
Jan. 2025	3.0%	2.9%
Feb. 2025	3.2%	3.0%
Mar. 2025	3.5%	3.0%
Apr. 2025	3.7%	3.1%
May 2025	3.9%	3.2%
Jun. 2025	4.2%	3.2%
Jul. 2025	4.2%	3.2%
Aug. 2025	4.3%	3.2%
Sep. 2025	4.3%	3.2%
Oct. 2025	4.3%	3.3%
Nov. 2025	4.4%	3.3%
Dec. 2025	4.3%	3.2%
Jan. 2026	4.4%	3.0%
Feb. 2026	4.4%	2.8%
Mar. 2026	4.4%	2.6%
Apr. 2026	4.5%	2.4%
May 2026	4.5%	2.2%
Jun. 2026	4.4%	2.1%
Jul. 2026	4.5%	2.0%
Aug. 2026	4.6%	2.0%
Sep. 2026	–	1.9%

What we know, what we don’t

What the figures establish

Japanese inflation has exceeded 2% in most months since 2022, a break with the 2010s.
Cereal prices, rice included, rose much faster than prices overall in 2024 and 2025.
The Bank of Japan left negative rates in 2024 and has raised its rate since.

What they don’t tell

The price of rice alone: no open series gives it without an access key.
The effect of rice vouchers and subsidies on prices: these series do not measure the effect of policies.
Wages outside manufacturing, especially in small firms and services.

Sources

Series downloaded from their producers on Nov 12, 2026, the snapshot date. Only published periods are used: no projection.

Bank for International Settlements (Bank of Japan) US dollar exchange rates, yen per dollar, monthly average (WS_XRU)
Bank for International Settlements (Bank of Japan) Central bank policy rates (WS_CBPOL), end of month
OECD (Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Monthly Labour Survey) Key Economic Indicators: hourly earnings, manufacturing, change over a year (DF_KEI)
Statistics Bureau of Japan (via DBnomics) Consumer Price Index, monthly (all items, less fresh food, less fresh food and energy, food, cereals, energy), 2020 = 100

Rice, yen, wages: the inflation Japan no longer expected

CitoyenData as of Nov 12, 2026

This dossier is updated at least once a quarter with the new figures. Follow it to get a notification at each update.

Key points

Inflation excluding fresh food2.2%Sep. 2026, the measure the Bank of Japan follows

Cereal prices (including rice)22%rise since Dec. 2023 – Sep. 2026, against 7% for all prices

Yen per dollar¥158 per $Oct. 2026, against ¥107 per $ on average in 2020

Bank of Japan policy rate1.25%Oct. 2026, against −0.10% until Feb. 2024

Inflation has settled in. Excluding fresh food, prices are up 2.2% over a year in Sep. 2026; they rose at least 2% in 47 of the 54 months since April 2022, after an average of 0.4% a year in the 2010s.
Rice drove food prices. Prices of cereals, rice included, rose 29.0% over a year in Jun. 2025. Since the end of 2023 they have gained 22%, 3 times as much as all prices (7%); they are now falling (−5.3% over a year in Sep. 2026).
A weak yen. A dollar costs ¥158 per $ in Oct. 2026, against ¥107 per $ on average in 2020: the yen has lost 32% of its value against the dollar, which makes imported energy and food dearer.
The end of negative rates. The Bank of Japan policy rate, at −0.10% until Feb. 2024, has been raised step by step to 1.25% in Oct. 2026.
Wages picking up in manufacturing. Over the latest twelve months, hourly earnings in manufacturing rose on average 4.6% over a year, against 2.0% for prices, a gap of 2.6 pt.

How to read these figures

1. Inflation settled since 2022

During the 2010s, Japanese prices barely moved. Since 2022, they have risen more than 2% a year in most months, energy excluded too.

Inflation over a year: all items, excluding fresh food, excluding fresh food and energy

Change in the price index over twelve months, %. Dotted line: the Bank of Japan’s 2% target.

Excluding fresh food and energy
Excluding fresh food
All items

Source:Statistics Bureau of Japan (via DBnomics)

Show the chart data

Period	All items	Excluding fresh food	Excluding fresh food and energy
Jan. 2010	−1.0%	−1.0%	−1.0%
Feb. 2010	−0.7%	−0.9%	−1.0%
Mar. 2010	−0.8%	−1.0%	−1.0%
Apr. 2010	−0.9%	−1.1%	−1.2%
May 2010	−0.7%	−0.9%	−1.4%
Jun. 2010	−0.7%	−0.9%	−1.4%
Jul. 2010	−0.9%	−1.1%	−1.6%
Aug. 2010	−1.2%	−1.1%	−1.6%
Sep. 2010	−0.9%	−1.2%	−1.7%
Oct. 2010	−0.2%	−0.8%	−1.3%
Nov. 2010	−0.3%	−0.8%	−1.4%
Dec. 2010	−0.3%	−0.8%	−1.3%
Jan. 2011	−0.5%	−0.8%	−1.3%
Feb. 2011	−0.5%	−0.8%	−1.1%
Mar. 2011	−0.5%	−0.6%	−1.2%
Apr. 2011	−0.4%	−0.3%	−0.8%
May 2011	−0.4%	−0.2%	−0.6%
Jun. 2011	−0.3%	−0.2%	−0.7%
Jul. 2011	0.2%	0.1%	−0.4%
Aug. 2011	0.2%	0.2%	−0.4%
Sep. 2011	0.0%	0.2%	−0.3%
Oct. 2011	−0.2%	−0.1%	−0.6%
Nov. 2011	−0.5%	−0.2%	−0.7%
Dec. 2011	−0.2%	−0.1%	−0.7%
Jan. 2012	0.1%	0.0%	−0.5%
Feb. 2012	0.3%	0.1%	−0.4%
Mar. 2012	0.5%	0.2%	−0.2%
Apr. 2012	0.5%	0.2%	−0.3%
May 2012	0.2%	−0.1%	−0.4%
Jun. 2012	−0.2%	−0.2%	−0.4%
Jul. 2012	−0.5%	−0.3%	−0.4%
Aug. 2012	−0.4%	−0.2%	−0.4%
Sep. 2012	−0.3%	0.0%	−0.5%
Oct. 2012	−0.4%	0.0%	−0.5%
Nov. 2012	−0.1%	0.0%	−0.4%
Dec. 2012	−0.2%	−0.2%	−0.5%
Jan. 2013	−0.3%	−0.3%	−0.6%
Feb. 2013	−0.7%	−0.3%	−0.7%
Mar. 2013	−0.9%	−0.5%	−0.7%
Apr. 2013	−0.7%	−0.4%	−0.5%
May 2013	−0.3%	0.0%	−0.4%
Jun. 2013	0.2%	0.3%	−0.2%
Jul. 2013	0.7%	0.6%	−0.1%
Aug. 2013	0.8%	0.7%	0.0%
Sep. 2013	1.1%	0.6%	0.0%
Oct. 2013	1.2%	0.8%	0.3%
Nov. 2013	1.5%	1.2%	0.5%
Dec. 2013	1.6%	1.3%	0.7%
Jan. 2014	1.4%	1.4%	0.7%
Feb. 2014	1.6%	1.4%	0.8%
Mar. 2014	1.6%	1.4%	0.8%
Apr. 2014	3.4%	3.3%	2.6%
May 2014	3.7%	3.4%	2.7%
Jun. 2014	3.6%	3.4%	2.7%
Jul. 2014	3.5%	3.4%	2.7%
Aug. 2014	3.4%	3.1%	2.7%
Sep. 2014	3.2%	3.0%	2.7%
Oct. 2014	2.8%	2.9%	2.6%
Nov. 2014	2.5%	2.6%	2.5%
Dec. 2014	2.4%	2.6%	2.5%
Jan. 2015	2.4%	2.3%	2.6%
Feb. 2015	2.2%	2.1%	2.5%
Mar. 2015	2.3%	2.2%	2.5%
Apr. 2015	0.7%	0.4%	0.8%
May 2015	0.6%	0.2%	0.8%
Jun. 2015	0.4%	0.1%	0.8%
Jul. 2015	0.2%	−0.1%	0.8%
Aug. 2015	0.1%	−0.2%	0.9%
Sep. 2015	0.0%	−0.2%	1.1%
Oct. 2015	0.3%	−0.3%	1.0%
Nov. 2015	0.2%	0.0%	1.1%
Dec. 2015	0.2%	0.0%	1.1%
Jan. 2016	−0.1%	0.0%	0.9%
Feb. 2016	0.2%	0.0%	1.0%
Mar. 2016	0.0%	−0.3%	0.9%
Apr. 2016	−0.3%	−0.4%	0.8%
May 2016	−0.5%	−0.4%	0.7%
Jun. 2016	−0.3%	−0.4%	0.7%
Jul. 2016	−0.4%	−0.5%	0.5%
Aug. 2016	−0.5%	−0.5%	0.4%
Sep. 2016	−0.5%	−0.5%	0.2%
Oct. 2016	0.1%	−0.3%	0.3%
Nov. 2016	0.5%	−0.3%	0.2%
Dec. 2016	0.3%	−0.2%	0.1%
Jan. 2017	0.5%	0.1%	0.2%
Feb. 2017	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%
Mar. 2017	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%
Apr. 2017	0.4%	0.3%	0.0%
May 2017	0.4%	0.4%	0.1%
Jun. 2017	0.4%	0.4%	0.0%
Jul. 2017	0.4%	0.5%	0.1%
Aug. 2017	0.6%	0.7%	0.2%
Sep. 2017	0.8%	0.7%	0.2%
Oct. 2017	0.2%	0.8%	0.2%
Nov. 2017	0.5%	0.9%	0.3%
Dec. 2017	1.0%	0.9%	0.4%
Jan. 2018	1.3%	0.8%	0.4%
Feb. 2018	1.4%	1.0%	0.5%
Mar. 2018	1.1%	0.8%	0.4%
Apr. 2018	0.6%	0.7%	0.3%
May 2018	0.7%	0.7%	0.3%
Jun. 2018	0.7%	0.8%	0.2%
Jul. 2018	0.9%	0.8%	0.3%
Aug. 2018	1.3%	0.9%	0.4%
Sep. 2018	1.1%	0.9%	0.3%
Oct. 2018	1.4%	1.0%	0.3%
Nov. 2018	0.9%	0.9%	0.3%
Dec. 2018	0.3%	0.7%	0.2%
Jan. 2019	0.2%	0.8%	0.4%
Feb. 2019	0.2%	0.7%	0.4%
Mar. 2019	0.5%	0.8%	0.5%
Apr. 2019	0.9%	0.9%	0.6%
May 2019	0.7%	0.7%	0.5%
Jun. 2019	0.6%	0.6%	0.5%
Jul. 2019	0.6%	0.6%	0.5%
Aug. 2019	0.2%	0.5%	0.5%
Sep. 2019	0.2%	0.4%	0.6%
Oct. 2019	0.2%	0.4%	0.7%
Nov. 2019	0.5%	0.5%	0.8%
Dec. 2019	0.8%	0.7%	0.9%
Jan. 2020	0.8%	0.8%	0.9%
Feb. 2020	0.6%	0.6%	0.7%
Mar. 2020	0.6%	0.6%	0.7%
Apr. 2020	0.2%	−0.1%	0.3%
May 2020	0.1%	−0.1%	0.4%
Jun. 2020	0.1%	−0.1%	0.4%
Jul. 2020	0.2%	0.0%	0.4%
Aug. 2020	0.1%	−0.4%	−0.1%
Sep. 2020	−0.2%	−0.4%	−0.1%
Oct. 2020	−0.6%	−0.8%	−0.3%
Nov. 2020	−1.0%	−1.0%	−0.4%
Dec. 2020	−1.2%	−1.0%	−0.4%
Jan. 2021	−0.7%	−0.7%	0.0%
Feb. 2021	−0.5%	−0.5%	0.0%
Mar. 2021	−0.4%	−0.4%	0.0%
Apr. 2021	−1.1%	−0.8%	−1.0%
May 2021	−0.7%	−0.6%	−0.9%
Jun. 2021	−0.4%	−0.5%	−0.8%
Jul. 2021	−0.3%	−0.2%	−0.6%
Aug. 2021	−0.4%	0.0%	−0.5%
Sep. 2021	0.2%	0.1%	−0.5%
Oct. 2021	0.1%	0.2%	−0.7%
Nov. 2021	0.6%	0.5%	−0.7%
Dec. 2021	0.8%	0.4%	−0.8%
Jan. 2022	0.5%	0.3%	−1.2%
Feb. 2022	0.9%	0.6%	−0.9%
Mar. 2022	1.2%	0.8%	−0.7%
Apr. 2022	2.4%	2.1%	0.8%
May 2022	2.4%	2.1%	0.8%
Jun. 2022	2.3%	2.2%	0.9%
Jul. 2022	2.6%	2.4%	1.2%
Aug. 2022	3.0%	2.7%	1.6%
Sep. 2022	3.0%	3.1%	1.8%
Oct. 2022	3.8%	3.5%	2.5%
Nov. 2022	3.8%	3.7%	2.8%
Dec. 2022	4.0%	4.1%	3.0%
Jan. 2023	4.4%	4.2%	3.2%
Feb. 2023	3.3%	3.1%	3.4%
Mar. 2023	3.3%	3.2%	3.7%
Apr. 2023	3.5%	3.4%	4.1%
May 2023	3.2%	3.1%	4.2%
Jun. 2023	3.3%	3.2%	4.3%
Jul. 2023	3.3%	3.1%	4.3%
Aug. 2023	3.1%	3.1%	4.3%
Sep. 2023	3.0%	2.7%	4.3%
Oct. 2023	3.3%	2.9%	4.0%
Nov. 2023	2.9%	2.5%	3.8%
Dec. 2023	2.6%	2.2%	3.7%
Jan. 2024	2.1%	2.0%	3.5%
Feb. 2024	2.8%	2.8%	3.2%
Mar. 2024	2.7%	2.6%	2.9%
Apr. 2024	2.5%	2.2%	2.4%
May 2024	2.9%	2.6%	2.2%
Jun. 2024	2.9%	2.7%	2.1%
Jul. 2024	2.7%	2.8%	1.9%
Aug. 2024	3.0%	2.8%	2.1%
Sep. 2024	2.5%	2.4%	2.0%
Oct. 2024	2.2%	2.3%	2.2%
Nov. 2024	2.9%	2.6%	2.4%
Dec. 2024	3.7%	3.0%	2.4%
Jan. 2025	4.0%	3.2%	2.6%
Feb. 2025	3.6%	3.0%	2.6%
Mar. 2025	3.6%	3.2%	2.8%
Apr. 2025	3.5%	3.5%	3.0%
May 2025	3.4%	3.6%	3.2%
Jun. 2025	3.2%	3.3%	3.5%
Jul. 2025	3.0%	3.0%	3.4%
Aug. 2025	2.7%	2.7%	3.3%
Sep. 2025	2.8%	3.0%	3.1%
Oct. 2025	3.0%	3.0%	3.1%
Nov. 2025	2.9%	3.0%	3.0%
Dec. 2025	2.1%	2.4%	2.9%
Jan. 2026	1.5%	2.0%	2.7%
Feb. 2026	1.3%	1.5%	2.6%
Mar. 2026	1.4%	1.7%	2.5%
Apr. 2026	1.3%	1.4%	1.9%
May 2026	1.5%	1.4%	1.8%
Jun. 2026	1.7%	1.5%	1.7%
Jul. 2026	2.1%	1.8%	1.9%
Aug. 2026	2.0%	1.8%	2.0%
Sep. 2026	2.2%	2.2%	2.3%

2. Rice and food

The surge in the price of rice, the staple food, dominated public debate in 2025. Cereals rose much faster than prices overall, before falling back in 2026.

Food, cereals and energy, change over a year

Change over twelve months, %. Cereals: rice, bread, noodles and other cereal products.

Energy
Cereals (incl. rice)
Food

Source:Statistics Bureau of Japan (via DBnomics)

Show the chart data

Period	Food	Cereals (incl. rice)	Energy
Jan. 2019	−1.5%	0.7%	4.9%
Feb. 2019	−1.5%	0.6%	4.4%
Mar. 2019	−0.4%	0.6%	5.2%
Apr. 2019	0.7%	0.8%	4.6%
May 2019	0.8%	1.1%	3.7%
Jun. 2019	1.4%	1.3%	1.2%
Jul. 2019	0.9%	1.2%	0.6%
Aug. 2019	0.0%	1.0%	−0.3%
Sep. 2019	0.4%	1.0%	−1.9%
Oct. 2019	0.9%	1.2%	−2.7%
Nov. 2019	1.5%	0.9%	−2.2%
Dec. 2019	1.8%	0.9%	−0.6%
Jan. 2020	1.6%	1.0%	0.8%
Feb. 2020	1.5%	1.1%	−0.2%
Mar. 2020	1.7%	1.0%	−1.7%
Apr. 2020	2.5%	0.6%	−4.7%
May 2020	2.3%	0.5%	−6.6%
Jun. 2020	1.7%	0.2%	−5.1%
Jul. 2020	1.9%	0.1%	−4.4%
Aug. 2020	2.5%	−0.1%	−3.5%
Sep. 2020	1.1%	−0.8%	−3.5%
Oct. 2020	0.6%	−0.8%	−5.8%
Nov. 2020	−0.2%	−1.1%	−7.7%
Dec. 2020	−0.6%	−1.1%	−8.2%
Jan. 2021	−0.2%	−1.0%	−8.7%
Feb. 2021	−0.1%	−1.1%	−7.4%
Mar. 2021	−0.4%	−1.3%	−4.5%
Apr. 2021	−1.3%	−1.4%	0.4%
May 2021	−1.0%	−1.6%	3.8%
Jun. 2021	0.0%	−1.4%	4.3%
Jul. 2021	−0.6%	−1.5%	5.8%
Aug. 2021	−1.1%	−1.1%	5.5%
Sep. 2021	0.9%	−0.7%	7.5%
Oct. 2021	0.4%	−1.2%	11.4%
Nov. 2021	1.4%	−0.9%	15.6%
Dec. 2021	2.1%	−1.2%	16.4%
Jan. 2022	2.0%	0.2%	17.9%
Feb. 2022	2.8%	1.6%	20.5%
Mar. 2022	3.4%	2.2%	20.8%
Apr. 2022	3.9%	2.8%	19.1%
May 2022	4.1%	3.2%	17.1%
Jun. 2022	3.7%	3.9%	16.5%
Jul. 2022	4.4%	5.7%	16.2%
Aug. 2022	4.6%	6.6%	16.9%
Sep. 2022	4.1%	7.1%	16.8%
Oct. 2022	6.3%	8.3%	15.2%
Nov. 2022	6.9%	8.9%	13.4%
Dec. 2022	6.9%	9.5%	15.2%
Jan. 2023	7.4%	8.0%	14.6%
Feb. 2023	7.5%	7.1%	−0.7%
Mar. 2023	7.7%	7.1%	−3.8%
Apr. 2023	8.5%	7.5%	−4.4%
May 2023	8.5%	7.3%	−8.2%
Jun. 2023	8.3%	7.5%	−6.5%
Jul. 2023	8.8%	8.0%	−8.7%
Aug. 2023	8.6%	7.7%	−9.8%
Sep. 2023	8.9%	7.6%	−11.7%
Oct. 2023	8.6%	7.5%	−8.6%
Nov. 2023	7.2%	7.5%	−10.2%
Dec. 2023	6.8%	7.5%	−11.6%
Jan. 2024	5.7%	7.0%	−12.2%
Feb. 2024	4.8%	6.7%	−1.7%
Mar. 2024	4.8%	6.3%	−0.6%
Apr. 2024	4.3%	5.3%	0.1%
May 2024	4.1%	5.9%	7.2%
Jun. 2024	3.7%	5.3%	7.7%
Jul. 2024	2.9%	4.2%	12.0%
Aug. 2024	3.6%	6.5%	12.1%
Sep. 2024	3.5%	10.4%	5.9%
Oct. 2024	3.5%	13.5%	2.3%
Nov. 2024	4.9%	15.0%	6.0%
Dec. 2024	6.3%	15.3%	10.1%
Jan. 2025	7.8%	18.3%	10.8%
Feb. 2025	7.6%	21.9%	6.9%
Mar. 2025	7.3%	25.4%	6.6%
Apr. 2025	6.5%	27.4%	9.3%
May 2025	6.5%	28.7%	8.1%
Jun. 2025	7.1%	29.0%	2.9%
Jul. 2025	7.5%	27.4%	−0.3%
Aug. 2025	7.2%	22.7%	−3.3%
Sep. 2025	6.7%	18.0%	2.3%
Oct. 2025	6.4%	16.7%	2.1%
Nov. 2025	6.0%	15.8%	2.4%
Dec. 2025	5.1%	14.7%	−3.1%
Jan. 2026	3.8%	12.1%	−5.2%
Feb. 2026	3.9%	7.3%	−9.0%
Mar. 2026	3.6%	3.5%	−5.7%
Apr. 2026	3.5%	1.3%	−3.8%
May 2026	3.5%	−0.8%	−2.5%
Jun. 2026	3.2%	−2.5%	−0.1%
Jul. 2026	3.6%	−2.5%	0.9%
Aug. 2026	3.2%	−3.6%	−0.3%
Sep. 2026	2.5%	−5.3%	−0.3%

Cereal prices and all prices

Indices, 2020 = 100. Since the end of 2023: 22% for cereals, 7% for all items.

All items
Cereals (incl. rice)

Source:Statistics Bureau of Japan (via DBnomics)

Show the chart data

Period	Cereals (incl. rice)	All items
Jan. 2015	93.6	97.8
Feb. 2015	93.8	97.6
Mar. 2015	93.8	97.9
Apr. 2015	93.8	98.4
May 2015	93.9	98.7
Jun. 2015	93.8	98.4
Jul. 2015	94.3	98.3
Aug. 2015	94.2	98.4
Sep. 2015	94.7	98.5
Oct. 2015	95.4	98.5
Nov. 2015	95.7	98.1
Dec. 2015	95.4	98.1
Jan. 2016	95.7	97.7
Feb. 2016	95.6	97.8
Mar. 2016	95.7	97.9
Apr. 2016	95.7	98.1
May 2016	95.7	98.2
Jun. 2016	95.5	98.1
Jul. 2016	95.7	97.9
Aug. 2016	95.7	97.9
Sep. 2016	96.0	98.0
Oct. 2016	96.8	98.6
Nov. 2016	96.9	98.6
Dec. 2016	96.9	98.4
Jan. 2017	97.1	98.2
Feb. 2017	96.9	98.1
Mar. 2017	97.0	98.1
Apr. 2017	96.9	98.5
May 2017	97.1	98.6
Jun. 2017	97.1	98.5
Jul. 2017	97.2	98.3
Aug. 2017	97.1	98.5
Sep. 2017	97.4	98.8
Oct. 2017	97.9	98.8
Nov. 2017	98.6	99.1
Dec. 2017	98.5	99.4
Jan. 2018	98.6	99.5
Feb. 2018	98.7	99.5
Mar. 2018	98.7	99.2
Apr. 2018	98.9	99.1
May 2018	98.7	99.3
Jun. 2018	98.7	99.2
Jul. 2018	99.0	99.2
Aug. 2018	99.0	99.8
Sep. 2018	99.3	99.9
Oct. 2018	99.5	100.2
Nov. 2018	99.6	100.0
Dec. 2018	99.4	99.7
Jan. 2019	99.3	99.7
Feb. 2019	99.3	99.7
Mar. 2019	99.3	99.7
Apr. 2019	99.7	100.0
May 2019	99.8	100.0
Jun. 2019	100.0	99.8
Jul. 2019	100.2	99.8
Aug. 2019	100.0	100.0
Sep. 2019	100.3	100.1
Oct. 2019	100.7	100.4
Nov. 2019	100.5	100.5
Dec. 2019	100.3	100.5
Jan. 2020	100.3	100.5
Feb. 2020	100.4	100.3
Mar. 2020	100.3	100.3
Apr. 2020	100.3	100.2
May 2020	100.3	100.1
Jun. 2020	100.2	99.9
Jul. 2020	100.3	100.0
Aug. 2020	99.9	100.1
Sep. 2020	99.5	99.9
Oct. 2020	99.9	99.8
Nov. 2020	99.4	99.5
Dec. 2020	99.2	99.3
Jan. 2021	99.3	99.8
Feb. 2021	99.3	99.8
Mar. 2021	99.0	99.9
Apr. 2021	98.9	99.1
May 2021	98.7	99.4
Jun. 2021	98.8	99.5
Jul. 2021	98.8	99.7
Aug. 2021	98.8	99.7
Sep. 2021	98.8	100.1
Oct. 2021	98.7	99.9
Nov. 2021	98.5	100.1
Dec. 2021	98.0	100.1
Jan. 2022	99.5	100.3
Feb. 2022	100.9	100.7
Mar. 2022	101.2	101.1
Apr. 2022	101.7	101.5
May 2022	101.9	101.8
Jun. 2022	102.7	101.8
Jul. 2022	104.4	102.3
Aug. 2022	105.3	102.7
Sep. 2022	105.8	103.1
Oct. 2022	106.9	103.7
Nov. 2022	107.3	103.9
Dec. 2022	107.3	104.1
Jan. 2023	107.5	104.7
Feb. 2023	108.1	104.0
Mar. 2023	108.4	104.4
Apr. 2023	109.3	105.1
May 2023	109.3	105.1
Jun. 2023	110.4	105.2
Jul. 2023	112.8	105.7
Aug. 2023	113.4	105.9
Sep. 2023	113.8	106.2
Oct. 2023	114.9	107.1
Nov. 2023	115.4	106.9
Dec. 2023	115.3	106.8
Jan. 2024	115.0	106.9
Feb. 2024	115.3	106.9
Mar. 2024	115.2	107.2
Apr. 2024	115.1	107.7
May 2024	115.8	108.1
Jun. 2024	116.3	108.2
Jul. 2024	117.5	108.6
Aug. 2024	120.8	109.1
Sep. 2024	125.6	108.9
Oct. 2024	130.4	109.5
Nov. 2024	132.7	110.0
Dec. 2024	132.9	110.7
Jan. 2025	136.1	111.2
Feb. 2025	140.5	110.8
Mar. 2025	144.5	111.1
Apr. 2025	146.6	111.5
May 2025	149.0	111.8
Jun. 2025	150.0	111.7
Jul. 2025	149.7	111.9
Aug. 2025	148.2	112.1
Sep. 2025	148.2	112.0
Oct. 2025	152.2	112.8
Nov. 2025	153.7	113.2
Dec. 2025	152.4	113.0
Jan. 2026	152.5	112.9
Feb. 2026	150.8	112.2
Mar. 2026	149.5	112.7
Apr. 2026	148.5	113.0
May 2026	147.8	113.5
Jun. 2026	146.3	113.6
Jul. 2026	145.9	114.2
Aug. 2026	142.8	114.3
Sep. 2026	140.4	114.5

3. The yen and the Bank of Japan

The yen has fallen sharply against the dollar since 2021, making imports dearer. The Bank of Japan ended negative rates in 2024 and has raised its rate several times since.

Yen per dollar

Monthly average. The higher the figure, the weaker the yen. Recent high: ¥163 per $ in Jul. 2026.

Source:Bank for International Settlements (Bank of Japan)

Show the chart data

Period	Yen per dollar
Jan. 2010	¥91.3 per $
Feb. 2010	¥90.2 per $
Mar. 2010	¥90.7 per $
Apr. 2010	¥93.5 per $
May 2010	¥92.2 per $
Jun. 2010	¥90.9 per $
Jul. 2010	¥87.5 per $
Aug. 2010	¥85.3 per $
Sep. 2010	¥84.4 per $
Oct. 2010	¥81.8 per $
Nov. 2010	¥82.5 per $
Dec. 2010	¥83.3 per $
Jan. 2011	¥82.6 per $
Feb. 2011	¥82.6 per $
Mar. 2011	¥81.7 per $
Apr. 2011	¥83.4 per $
May 2011	¥81.2 per $
Jun. 2011	¥80.4 per $
Jul. 2011	¥79.4 per $
Aug. 2011	¥77.0 per $
Sep. 2011	¥76.8 per $
Oct. 2011	¥76.7 per $
Nov. 2011	¥77.5 per $
Dec. 2011	¥77.8 per $
Jan. 2012	¥77.0 per $
Feb. 2012	¥78.5 per $
Mar. 2012	¥82.5 per $
Apr. 2012	¥81.3 per $
May 2012	¥79.7 per $
Jun. 2012	¥79.2 per $
Jul. 2012	¥79.0 per $
Aug. 2012	¥78.7 per $
Sep. 2012	¥78.2 per $
Oct. 2012	¥79.0 per $
Nov. 2012	¥81.0 per $
Dec. 2012	¥83.6 per $
Jan. 2013	¥89.0 per $
Feb. 2013	¥93.1 per $
Mar. 2013	¥94.9 per $
Apr. 2013	¥97.9 per $
May 2013	¥101.0 per $
Jun. 2013	¥97.4 per $
Jul. 2013	¥99.7 per $
Aug. 2013	¥97.9 per $
Sep. 2013	¥99.2 per $
Oct. 2013	¥97.8 per $
Nov. 2013	¥100.0 per $
Dec. 2013	¥103.4 per $
Jan. 2014	¥103.9 per $
Feb. 2014	¥102.0 per $
Mar. 2014	¥102.4 per $
Apr. 2014	¥102.5 per $
May 2014	¥101.8 per $
Jun. 2014	¥102.1 per $
Jul. 2014	¥101.7 per $
Aug. 2014	¥103.0 per $
Sep. 2014	¥107.3 per $
Oct. 2014	¥108.0 per $
Nov. 2014	¥116.3 per $
Dec. 2014	¥119.3 per $
Jan. 2015	¥118.3 per $
Feb. 2015	¥118.7 per $
Mar. 2015	¥120.3 per $
Apr. 2015	¥119.6 per $
May 2015	¥120.9 per $
Jun. 2015	¥123.7 per $
Jul. 2015	¥123.4 per $
Aug. 2015	¥123.1 per $
Sep. 2015	¥120.2 per $
Oct. 2015	¥120.0 per $
Nov. 2015	¥122.6 per $
Dec. 2015	¥121.7 per $
Jan. 2016	¥118.2 per $
Feb. 2016	¥114.8 per $
Mar. 2016	¥113.0 per $
Apr. 2016	¥109.6 per $
May 2016	¥108.9 per $
Jun. 2016	¥105.5 per $
Jul. 2016	¥104.1 per $
Aug. 2016	¥101.2 per $
Sep. 2016	¥101.9 per $
Oct. 2016	¥103.8 per $
Nov. 2016	¥108.3 per $
Dec. 2016	¥116.1 per $
Jan. 2017	¥115.1 per $
Feb. 2017	¥112.9 per $
Mar. 2017	¥113.0 per $
Apr. 2017	¥110.3 per $
May 2017	¥112.2 per $
Jun. 2017	¥110.9 per $
Jul. 2017	¥112.5 per $
Aug. 2017	¥109.9 per $
Sep. 2017	¥110.7 per $
Oct. 2017	¥112.9 per $
Nov. 2017	¥112.8 per $
Dec. 2017	¥112.9 per $
Jan. 2018	¥110.9 per $
Feb. 2018	¥107.9 per $
Mar. 2018	¥106.1 per $
Apr. 2018	¥107.7 per $
May 2018	¥109.7 per $
Jun. 2018	¥110.1 per $
Jul. 2018	¥111.4 per $
Aug. 2018	¥111.0 per $
Sep. 2018	¥112.0 per $
Oct. 2018	¥112.9 per $
Nov. 2018	¥113.3 per $
Dec. 2018	¥112.3 per $
Jan. 2019	¥108.9 per $
Feb. 2019	¥110.4 per $
Mar. 2019	¥111.2 per $
Apr. 2019	¥111.6 per $
May 2019	¥109.9 per $
Jun. 2019	¥108.1 per $
Jul. 2019	¥108.2 per $
Aug. 2019	¥106.2 per $
Sep. 2019	¥107.5 per $
Oct. 2019	¥108.1 per $
Nov. 2019	¥108.9 per $
Dec. 2019	¥109.1 per $
Jan. 2020	¥109.3 per $
Feb. 2020	¥110.1 per $
Mar. 2020	¥107.5 per $
Apr. 2020	¥107.7 per $
May 2020	¥107.2 per $
Jun. 2020	¥107.6 per $
Jul. 2020	¥106.8 per $
Aug. 2020	¥106.0 per $
Sep. 2020	¥105.6 per $
Oct. 2020	¥105.2 per $
Nov. 2020	¥104.4 per $
Dec. 2020	¥103.8 per $
Jan. 2021	¥103.8 per $
Feb. 2021	¥105.4 per $
Mar. 2021	¥108.7 per $
Apr. 2021	¥108.9 per $
May 2021	¥109.1 per $
Jun. 2021	¥110.1 per $
Jul. 2021	¥110.3 per $
Aug. 2021	¥109.8 per $
Sep. 2021	¥110.2 per $
Oct. 2021	¥113.1 per $
Nov. 2021	¥114.0 per $
Dec. 2021	¥113.9 per $
Jan. 2022	¥114.9 per $
Feb. 2022	¥115.2 per $
Mar. 2022	¥118.6 per $
Apr. 2022	¥126.3 per $
May 2022	¥128.8 per $
Jun. 2022	¥134.0 per $
Jul. 2022	¥136.7 per $
Aug. 2022	¥135.1 per $
Sep. 2022	¥143.0 per $
Oct. 2022	¥147.3 per $
Nov. 2022	¥142.3 per $
Dec. 2022	¥134.9 per $
Jan. 2023	¥130.5 per $
Feb. 2023	¥132.9 per $
Mar. 2023	¥133.6 per $
Apr. 2023	¥133.6 per $
May 2023	¥137.1 per $
Jun. 2023	¥141.3 per $
Jul. 2023	¥141.0 per $
Aug. 2023	¥144.8 per $
Sep. 2023	¥147.7 per $
Oct. 2023	¥149.6 per $
Nov. 2023	¥149.8 per $
Dec. 2023	¥144.2 per $
Jan. 2024	¥146.2 per $
Feb. 2024	¥149.5 per $
Mar. 2024	¥149.7 per $
Apr. 2024	¥153.8 per $
May 2024	¥155.9 per $
Jun. 2024	¥157.8 per $
Jul. 2024	¥157.9 per $
Aug. 2024	¥146.3 per $
Sep. 2024	¥143.2 per $
Oct. 2024	¥149.7 per $
Nov. 2024	¥153.6 per $
Dec. 2024	¥153.7 per $
Jan. 2025	¥156.4 per $
Feb. 2025	¥151.8 per $
Mar. 2025	¥149.1 per $
Apr. 2025	¥144.2 per $
May 2025	¥144.7 per $
Jun. 2025	¥144.6 per $
Jul. 2025	¥146.9 per $
Aug. 2025	¥147.7 per $
Sep. 2025	¥147.9 per $
Oct. 2025	¥151.5 per $
Nov. 2025	¥155.1 per $
Dec. 2025	¥155.9 per $
Jan. 2026	¥156.7 per $
Feb. 2026	¥155.2 per $
Mar. 2026	¥158.7 per $
Apr. 2026	¥159.1 per $
May 2026	¥158.2 per $
Jun. 2026	¥160.7 per $
Jul. 2026	¥162.5 per $
Aug. 2026	¥158.8 per $
Sep. 2026	¥156.4 per $
Oct. 2026	¥157.9 per $

Bank of Japan policy rate

End-of-month rate, %. First positive rate: 0.05% in Mar. 2024.

Source:Bank for International Settlements (Bank of Japan)

Show the chart data

Period	Policy rate
Jan. 2008	0.50%
Feb. 2008	0.50%
Mar. 2008	0.50%
Apr. 2008	0.50%
May 2008	0.50%
Jun. 2008	0.50%
Jul. 2008	0.50%
Aug. 2008	0.50%
Sep. 2008	0.50%
Oct. 2008	0.30%
Nov. 2008	0.30%
Dec. 2008	0.10%
Jan. 2009	0.10%
Feb. 2009	0.10%
Mar. 2009	0.10%
Apr. 2009	0.10%
May 2009	0.10%
Jun. 2009	0.10%
Jul. 2009	0.10%
Aug. 2009	0.10%
Sep. 2009	0.10%
Oct. 2009	0.10%
Nov. 2009	0.10%
Dec. 2009	0.10%
Jan. 2010	0.10%
Feb. 2010	0.10%
Mar. 2010	0.10%
Apr. 2010	0.10%
May 2010	0.10%
Jun. 2010	0.10%
Jul. 2010	0.10%
Aug. 2010	0.10%
Sep. 2010	0.10%
Oct. 2010	0.05%
Nov. 2010	0.05%
Dec. 2010	0.05%
Jan. 2011	0.05%
Feb. 2011	0.05%
Mar. 2011	0.05%
Apr. 2011	0.05%
May 2011	0.05%
Jun. 2011	0.05%
Jul. 2011	0.05%
Aug. 2011	0.05%
Sep. 2011	0.05%
Oct. 2011	0.05%
Nov. 2011	0.05%
Dec. 2011	0.05%
Jan. 2012	0.05%
Feb. 2012	0.05%
Mar. 2012	0.05%
Apr. 2012	0.05%
May 2012	0.05%
Jun. 2012	0.05%
Jul. 2012	0.05%
Aug. 2012	0.05%
Sep. 2012	0.05%
Oct. 2012	0.05%
Nov. 2012	0.05%
Dec. 2012	0.05%
Jan. 2013	0.05%
Feb. 2013	0.05%
Mar. 2013	0.05%
Apr. 2013	0.05%
Sep. 2016	−0.10%
Oct. 2016	−0.10%
Nov. 2016	−0.10%
Dec. 2016	−0.10%
Jan. 2017	−0.10%
Feb. 2017	−0.10%
Mar. 2017	−0.10%
Apr. 2017	−0.10%
May 2017	−0.10%
Jun. 2017	−0.10%
Jul. 2017	−0.10%
Aug. 2017	−0.10%
Sep. 2017	−0.10%
Oct. 2017	−0.10%
Nov. 2017	−0.10%
Dec. 2017	−0.10%
Jan. 2018	−0.10%
Feb. 2018	−0.10%
Mar. 2018	−0.10%
Apr. 2018	−0.10%
May 2018	−0.10%
Jun. 2018	−0.10%
Jul. 2018	−0.10%
Aug. 2018	−0.10%
Sep. 2018	−0.10%
Oct. 2018	−0.10%
Nov. 2018	−0.10%
Dec. 2018	−0.10%
Jan. 2019	−0.10%
Feb. 2019	−0.10%
Mar. 2019	−0.10%
Apr. 2019	−0.10%
May 2019	−0.10%
Jun. 2019	−0.10%
Jul. 2019	−0.10%
Aug. 2019	−0.10%
Sep. 2019	−0.10%
Oct. 2019	−0.10%
Nov. 2019	−0.10%
Dec. 2019	−0.10%
Jan. 2020	−0.10%
Feb. 2020	−0.10%
Mar. 2020	−0.10%
Apr. 2020	−0.10%
May 2020	−0.10%
Jun. 2020	−0.10%
Jul. 2020	−0.10%
Aug. 2020	−0.10%
Sep. 2020	−0.10%
Oct. 2020	−0.10%
Nov. 2020	−0.10%
Dec. 2020	−0.10%
Jan. 2021	−0.10%
Feb. 2021	−0.10%
Mar. 2021	−0.10%
Apr. 2021	−0.10%
May 2021	−0.10%
Jun. 2021	−0.10%
Jul. 2021	−0.10%
Aug. 2021	−0.10%
Sep. 2021	−0.10%
Oct. 2021	−0.10%
Nov. 2021	−0.10%
Dec. 2021	−0.10%
Jan. 2022	−0.10%
Feb. 2022	−0.10%
Mar. 2022	−0.10%
Apr. 2022	−0.10%
May 2022	−0.10%
Jun. 2022	−0.10%
Jul. 2022	−0.10%
Aug. 2022	−0.10%
Sep. 2022	−0.10%
Oct. 2022	−0.10%
Nov. 2022	−0.10%
Dec. 2022	−0.10%
Jan. 2023	−0.10%
Feb. 2023	−0.10%
Mar. 2023	−0.10%
Apr. 2023	−0.10%
May 2023	−0.10%
Jun. 2023	−0.10%
Jul. 2023	−0.10%
Aug. 2023	−0.10%
Sep. 2023	−0.10%
Oct. 2023	−0.10%
Nov. 2023	−0.10%
Dec. 2023	−0.10%
Jan. 2024	−0.10%
Feb. 2024	−0.10%
Mar. 2024	0.05%
Apr. 2024	0.05%
May 2024	0.05%
Jun. 2024	0.05%
Jul. 2024	0.05%
Aug. 2024	0.25%
Sep. 2024	0.25%
Oct. 2024	0.25%
Nov. 2024	0.25%
Dec. 2024	0.25%
Jan. 2025	0.50%
Feb. 2025	0.50%
Mar. 2025	0.50%
Apr. 2025	0.50%
May 2025	0.50%
Jun. 2025	0.50%
Jul. 2025	0.50%
Aug. 2025	0.50%
Sep. 2025	0.50%
Oct. 2025	0.50%
Nov. 2025	0.50%
Dec. 2025	0.75%
Jan. 2026	0.75%
Feb. 2026	0.75%
Mar. 2026	0.75%
Apr. 2026	0.75%
May 2026	0.75%
Jun. 2026	1.00%
Jul. 2026	1.00%
Aug. 2026	1.00%
Sep. 2026	1.25%
Oct. 2026	1.25%

4. Wages

Between 2022 and 2024, hourly earnings in manufacturing rose more slowly than prices. Since 2025, the reverse.

Hourly earnings in manufacturing and prices, change over a year

Twelve-month averages of the changes over a year, %. Hourly earnings in manufacturing; consumer price index, all items.

Consumer prices
Hourly earnings, manufacturing

Source:OECD (Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Monthly Labour Survey)Statistics Bureau of Japan (via DBnomics)

Show the chart data

Period	Hourly earnings, manufacturing	Consumer prices
Jan. 2019	1.4%	0.9%
Feb. 2019	1.4%	0.8%
Mar. 2019	1.2%	0.7%
Apr. 2019	1.1%	0.8%
May 2019	1.5%	0.8%
Jun. 2019	1.2%	0.8%
Jul. 2019	1.0%	0.7%
Aug. 2019	0.9%	0.6%
Sep. 2019	0.9%	0.6%
Oct. 2019	0.8%	0.5%
Nov. 2019	0.7%	0.4%
Dec. 2019	0.5%	0.5%
Jan. 2020	0.3%	0.5%
Feb. 2020	0.3%	0.6%
Mar. 2020	0.0%	0.6%
Apr. 2020	−0.2%	0.5%
May 2020	−1.1%	0.5%
Jun. 2020	−1.6%	0.4%
Jul. 2020	−2.0%	0.4%
Aug. 2020	−2.5%	0.4%
Sep. 2020	−2.7%	0.3%
Oct. 2020	−2.8%	0.3%
Nov. 2020	−3.3%	0.1%
Dec. 2020	−3.6%	−0.0%
Jan. 2021	−3.4%	−0.1%
Feb. 2021	−3.4%	−0.2%
Mar. 2021	−3.0%	−0.3%
Apr. 2021	−2.6%	−0.4%
May 2021	−1.9%	−0.5%
Jun. 2021	−0.9%	−0.5%
Jul. 2021	−0.3%	−0.6%
Aug. 2021	0.4%	−0.6%
Sep. 2021	0.8%	−0.6%
Oct. 2021	1.1%	−0.5%
Nov. 2021	1.5%	−0.4%
Dec. 2021	2.1%	−0.2%
Jan. 2022	2.1%	−0.1%
Feb. 2022	2.1%	−0.0%
Mar. 2022	2.0%	0.1%
Apr. 2022	2.0%	0.4%
May 2022	1.7%	0.7%
Jun. 2022	1.4%	0.9%
Jul. 2022	1.6%	1.1%
Aug. 2022	1.3%	1.4%
Sep. 2022	1.1%	1.7%
Oct. 2022	1.1%	2.0%
Nov. 2022	1.1%	2.2%
Dec. 2022	1.2%	2.5%
Jan. 2023	1.3%	2.8%
Feb. 2023	1.3%	3.0%
Mar. 2023	1.5%	3.2%
Apr. 2023	1.4%	3.3%
May 2023	1.9%	3.4%
Jun. 2023	2.2%	3.4%
Jul. 2023	2.0%	3.5%
Aug. 2023	2.2%	3.5%
Sep. 2023	2.4%	3.5%
Oct. 2023	2.5%	3.5%
Nov. 2023	2.3%	3.4%
Dec. 2023	2.3%	3.3%
Jan. 2024	2.3%	3.1%
Feb. 2024	2.4%	3.0%
Mar. 2024	2.3%	3.0%
Apr. 2024	2.4%	2.9%
May 2024	2.0%	2.9%
Jun. 2024	1.9%	2.8%
Jul. 2024	2.2%	2.8%
Aug. 2024	2.2%	2.8%
Sep. 2024	2.2%	2.7%
Oct. 2024	2.4%	2.6%
Nov. 2024	2.6%	2.6%
Dec. 2024	2.8%	2.7%
Jan. 2025	3.0%	2.9%
Feb. 2025	3.2%	3.0%
Mar. 2025	3.5%	3.0%
Apr. 2025	3.7%	3.1%
May 2025	3.9%	3.2%
Jun. 2025	4.2%	3.2%
Jul. 2025	4.2%	3.2%
Aug. 2025	4.3%	3.2%
Sep. 2025	4.3%	3.2%
Oct. 2025	4.3%	3.3%
Nov. 2025	4.4%	3.3%
Dec. 2025	4.3%	3.2%
Jan. 2026	4.4%	3.0%
Feb. 2026	4.4%	2.8%
Mar. 2026	4.4%	2.6%
Apr. 2026	4.5%	2.4%
May 2026	4.5%	2.2%
Jun. 2026	4.4%	2.1%
Jul. 2026	4.5%	2.0%
Aug. 2026	4.6%	2.0%
Sep. 2026	–	1.9%

What we know, what we don’t

What the figures establish

Japanese inflation has exceeded 2% in most months since 2022, a break with the 2010s.
Cereal prices, rice included, rose much faster than prices overall in 2024 and 2025.
The Bank of Japan left negative rates in 2024 and has raised its rate since.

What they don’t tell

The price of rice alone: no open series gives it without an access key.
The effect of rice vouchers and subsidies on prices: these series do not measure the effect of policies.
Wages outside manufacturing, especially in small firms and services.

Sources

Series downloaded from their producers on Nov 12, 2026, the snapshot date. Only published periods are used: no projection.

Bank for International Settlements (Bank of Japan) US dollar exchange rates, yen per dollar, monthly average (WS_XRU)
Bank for International Settlements (Bank of Japan) Central bank policy rates (WS_CBPOL), end of month
OECD (Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Monthly Labour Survey) Key Economic Indicators: hourly earnings, manufacturing, change over a year (DF_KEI)
Statistics Bureau of Japan (via DBnomics) Consumer Price Index, monthly (all items, less fresh food, less fresh food and energy, food, cereals, energy), 2020 = 100