Sanae Takaichi: the record in figures
One year after she took over the government, what has improved, what has worsened, and are her commitments being kept?
Scope: Japan, from 21 October 2025 to 9 November 2026; comparison with the OECD as a whole over the same period.
Key points
- A first one-year record, still partial. Nine monthly or quarterly indicators already describe the term; the other seven (public finances, life expectancy, emissions…) are annual, and 2025 almost entirely predates her arrival.
- Inflation half the OECD’s: +2.2% between September 2025 and September 2026, against +4.5% in the OECD as a whole.
- An even tighter labour market: unemployment from 2.6% to 2.4%, unemployment of 15-24 year-olds from 3.9% to 3.5%, employment rate of 15-64 year-olds from 80.1% to 80.5%.
- Activity is growing: manufacturing output +3.1% over the year (OECD +0.7%), real GDP +1.1% between Q3 2025 and Q2 2026, slightly less than the OECD (+1.3%).
The record in figures, period by period
Pick a period: each indicator is read between the last figure published before the term began and the last one before it ended (or the latest one for a term still running), and compared with the OECD as a whole over exactly the same window.
8 improved, 0 worsened, 0 stable, 1 without value judgement
7 indicators not shown, no figure published for this period yet: Real disposable income per capita, Budget balance (% of GDP), Public debt (% of GDP), Public spending (% of GDP), Public revenue (% of GDP), Life expectancy at birth, Greenhouse gas emissions.
How to read the charts: Japan (blue) and the OECD (grey) start from the same point at the beginning of the selected period, 0 for a rate (change in points), 100 for a level. Light line: before the period. Bands: the terms of office.
Economy
- Real GDPImproved+1.1%OECD: +1.3%
$5,878bn PPP (Q3 2025) → $5,943bn PPP (Q2 2026)
worse than the OECD · latest published figure
Cumulative growth of inflation-adjusted GDP (chain-linked volumes, seasonally adjusted quarterly data, in purchasing-power-parity dollars to compare with the OECD total).
See the card: GDP growthSource: OECD QNA (B1GQ, USD PPP, chain-linked volumes)
- Real GDP per capitaImproved+1.0%OECD: +0.5%
111.7 (Q3 2025) → 112.7 (Q1 2026)
better than the OECD · latest published figure
Quarterly index of real GDP per inhabitant (OECD household dashboard).
- Manufacturing outputImproved+3.1%OECD: +0.7%
91.8 (Sep 2025) → 94.6 (Sep 2026)
better than the OECD · latest published figure
Manufacturing production index, monthly, seasonally adjusted.
Jobs
- Unemployment rateImproved−0.2 ptOECD: −0.1 pt
2.6% (Sep 2025) → 2.4% (Sep 2026)
better than the OECD · latest published figure
Unemployed as % of the labour force, OECD harmonised (ILO) definition, monthly, seasonally adjusted.
See the card: Unemployment rate (ILO)Source: OECD KEI (UNEMP)
- Unemployment, aged 15-24Improved−0.4 ptOECD: −0.1 pt
3.9% (Sep 2025) → 3.5% (Sep 2026)
better than the OECD · latest published figure
See the card: Youth unemployment (15-24)Source: OECD Labour Force Statistics (15-24)
- Employment rate, aged 15-64Improved+0.4 ptOECD: +0.1 pt
80.1% (Q3 2025) → 80.5% (Q3 2026)
better than the OECD · latest published figure
Share of 15-64 year-olds in employment, quarterly, seasonally adjusted.
See the card: Employment rate (15-64)Source: OECD Labour Force Statistics (15-64)
- Employment rate, aged 55-64Improved+0.5 ptOECD: +0.4 pt
79.9% (Q3 2025) → 80.3% (Q3 2026)
better than the OECD · latest published figure
See the card: Senior employment rate (55-64)Source: OECD Labour Force Statistics (55-64)
Prices and purchasing power
- Consumer pricesNo judgement+2.2%OECD: +4.5%
112.0 (Sep 2025) → 114.5 (Sep 2026)
better than the OECD · latest published figure
Cumulative rise of the national consumer price index. A smaller rise than in the OECD reads as an advantage.
See the card: Inflation (CPI)Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan CPI (DBnomics STATJP/CPIm/001)
Climate and energy
- Renewables share of electricityImproved+1.1 ptOECD: +1.8 pt
25.8% (Sep 2025) → 26.9% (Sep 2026)
worse than the OECD · latest published figure
Share of renewables in electricity generation over the last 12 months (Ember, monthly data).
Reading: “Improved” / “Worsened” gives the direction of the change for a citizen (less unemployment, more jobs…), not a cause. An indicator whose level is a political choice (spending, revenue) is shown without judgement. A change whose window covers less than half of the span between its two figures is not shown (too early to judge). Sources: OECD, Statistics Bureau of Japan, World Bank, EDGAR, Ember, data extracted on 9 November 2026.
Show the full table of indicators for the selected period
| Indicator | Start of period | End of period | Change | OECD (same period) | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP | $5,878bn PPP (Q3 2025) | $5,943bn PPP (Q2 2026) | +1.1% | +1.3% | Improved |
| Real GDP per capita | 111.7 (Q3 2025) | 112.7 (Q1 2026) | +1.0% | +0.5% | Improved |
| Manufacturing output | 91.8 (Sep 2025) | 94.6 (Sep 2026) | +3.1% | +0.7% | Improved |
| Unemployment rate | 2.6% (Sep 2025) | 2.4% (Sep 2026) | −0.2 pt | −0.1 pt | Improved |
| Unemployment, aged 15-24 | 3.9% (Sep 2025) | 3.5% (Sep 2026) | −0.4 pt | −0.1 pt | Improved |
| Employment rate, aged 15-64 | 80.1% (Q3 2025) | 80.5% (Q3 2026) | +0.4 pt | +0.1 pt | Improved |
| Employment rate, aged 55-64 | 79.9% (Q3 2025) | 80.3% (Q3 2026) | +0.5 pt | +0.4 pt | Improved |
| Consumer prices | 112.0 (Sep 2025) | 114.5 (Sep 2026) | +2.2% | +4.5% | No judgement |
| Renewables share of electricity | 25.8% (Sep 2025) | 26.9% (Sep 2026) | +1.1 pt | +1.8 pt | Improved |
Strengths and weaknesses
What the data say about the first year (October 2025 → latest figure). The figures come from the table above; one year is short to judge a government.
What improved
- Prices. Up 2.2% in a year (September 2025 → September 2026), against 4.5% in the OECD.
- Jobs. Unemployment at 2.4% (−0.2 points), youth unemployment at 3.5% (−0.4 points), employment rate of 55-64 year-olds at 80.3% (+0.5 points), all better oriented than in the OECD.
- Industry. Manufacturing output +3.1% between September 2025 and September 2026 (OECD +0.7%).
- GDP per capita. +1.0% between Q3 2025 and Q1 2026, twice the OECD’s (+0.5%), in a country whose population is shrinking.
What worsened
- Growth slightly below average. Real GDP +1.1% in three quarters, against +1.3% in the OECD as a whole.
- Renewables. Their share of electricity generation over twelve months goes from 25.8% to 26.9% (September 2025 → September 2026), a little slower than in the OECD (+1.8 points).
- What the data do not say yet. Real household disposable income, public finances, life expectancy and emissions have no figure after the start of the term yet; public debt, very high (197.5% of GDP in 2025 according to the OECD estimate), remains to be followed.
The promises: kept or not?
Sanae Takaichi’s main commitments (LDP presidential campaign, coalition agreement, policy speeches and election manifesto), and what became of them. The status rests on the laws and measures adopted and the official figures cited as sources; “in progress” flags a commitment whose deadline has not passed.
Sanae Takaichi’s commitments (2025-2026)
- KeptCost of living
Pass during the Diet session a bill abolishing the so-called provisional tax rate on gasoline, and abolish the one on diesel early.
The House of Councillors passed the law unanimously on 28 November 2025: the 25.1 yen per litre gasoline surcharge was abolished on 31 December 2025, the 17.1 yen per litre diesel surcharge on 1 April 2026. The revenue loss is estimated at 1.5 trillion yen a year; replacement revenue is to be decided about a year later.[1],[11],[3]
- KeptDefence
Reach within the current fiscal year, including through a supplementary budget, the defence spending level of “2 percent of GDP” set by the National Security Strategy.
The FY2025 supplementary budget, enacted on 16 December 2025, devotes 1,656.0 billion yen to defence and diplomacy, of which 502.1 billion to the Defense Buildup Program. Including related expenditures (about 1.1 trillion yen), the Ministry of Finance states that the “2% of GDP level” is reached ahead of schedule.[1],[3],[12]
- In progressDefence
Start revising the “three documents” on security (including the December 2022 National Security Strategy) with the aim of completing it by the end of 2026.
According to press reports (October 2026), the government plans to revise the three documents within the year and will not include a 3.5% of GDP defence spending target, which would require tax increases, while still planning higher outlays.[1],[23]
- KeptCost of living
Respond to rising prices with well-targeted support suited to the situation in each local area.
The FY2025 supplementary budget (18,303.4 billion yen, enacted on 16 December 2025) devotes 8,904.1 billion yen to everyday life, including 2,000 billion in grants to local governments (with 400 billion against rising food prices) and 367.7 billion for an additional allowance of 20,000 yen per child.[1],[3],[12]
- KeptEnergy
Help households pay electricity and gas bills during the coldest winter months.
The FY2025 supplementary budget provides 529.6 billion yen for this support, paid from January to March 2026. On 26 May 2026 the government decides to use 513.5 billion yen of reserves for new help with electricity and gas bills.[1],[3],[2],[5]
- KeptTaxation
Raise the “1.03 million yen barrier” income limit to 1.60 million yen and discuss a further, price-linked rise in the basic deduction.
On 18 December 2025 the LDP and the Democratic Party for the People agree to raise the taxable income threshold from 1.6 to 1.78 million yen, a measure included in the FY2026 tax reform; the reform bills are enacted by the Diet on 31 March 2026.[1],[13],[14]
- KeptEducation
Make high school tuition and school lunches effectively free from April 2026.
The FY2026 budget, enacted on 7 April 2026, abolishes the income requirement of high school tuition support and raises the annual ceiling for private schools from 396,000 to 457,000 yen; it funds 5,200 yen per child per month of lunches in public elementary schools. National cost: 187.6 and 164.9 billion yen.[1],[4],[2]
- In progressPublic finances
Run “responsible and proactive public finances”: keep debt growing more slowly than the economy and lower the government debt-to-GDP ratio, without raising tax rates.
The FY2025 supplementary budget is financed by 11,696.0 billion yen of borrowing. The FY2026 initial budget reaches a record 122,309.2 billion yen, with 29.6 trillion yen of new bonds (under 30 trillion for the second year), a bond dependency ratio of 24.2% and debt service up 3,057.9 billion. The effect on the debt-to-GDP ratio cannot be measured yet.[1],[3],[4],[2]
- In progressTaxation
Suspend the 8% consumption tax on food for two years (an issue opened by the agreement with Ishin, a pledge of the February 2026 campaign).
The chosen bill lowers the rate from 8% to 1% for two years from April 2027, with an income-based benefit, at a cost of about 10 trillion yen over two years. Approved by the cabinet on 9 October 2026, it was passed by the House of Representatives financial affairs committee on 6 November 2026 and sent to the House of Councillors; the government aims for enactment before the session ends on 12 December.[10],[20],[21],[22]
- In progressInstitutions
Cut the number of House of Representatives seats by 10%, as early as the extraordinary session of October 2025 (a condition set by Ishin).
The bill submitted on 5 December 2025 caps the chamber at 420 seats (at least 45 fewer than 465); it was not passed during the session and remains under discussion. On 29 October 2026 the LDP, Ishin and the Democratic Party for the People agree on a compromise of 31 fewer proportional seats (from 176 to 145), still to be written into a bill.[10],[15],[16],[17]
- In progressImmigration
Respond firmly to illegal activities and rule-breaking by a subset of foreign nationals in Japan, by strengthening policy coordination on them, while drawing a clear line against xenophobia.
A stricter comprehensive package on admitting foreign nationals is adopted on 23 January 2026; the FY2026 budget gives it 132.0 billion yen more. The immigration law, revised in May 2026, raises the permanent residency fee from 10,000 to 200,000 yen from October 2026, with an income requirement; further criteria (B1-level Japanese, pension contributions) are to apply from April 2027.[1],[4],[18]
- In progressConstitution
Have the Diet put forward a proposal on constitutional reform during her tenure.
In April 2026, at the LDP convention, Sanae Takaichi announces an amendment proposal by spring 2027. The House of Representatives Commission on the Constitution has proposed an emergency clause (extending lawmakers’ terms, cabinet orders with the force of law), opposed by the opposition. Any revision requires two thirds of both houses, then a referendum.[1],[24]
The context: the events of the period
A record is not read out of context: the events that marked the government’s first year.
October 4, 2025
Elected LDP president
Sanae Takaichi takes over the presidency of the Liberal Democratic Party on 4 October 2025; on 21 October she becomes Japan’s first female prime minister.[10]
October 20, 2025
Komeito leaves, agreement with Ishin
Komeito decides on 10 October 2025 to leave its coalition with the LDP. On 20 October the LDP and the Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin) sign an agreement: Ishin backs the government from outside the cabinet, in exchange notably for a 10% cut in House of Representatives seats.[10]
November 7, 2025
Diplomatic crisis with China
On 7 November 2025 the prime minister says Chinese military action against Taiwan could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, a classification that can authorise collective self-defence. On 14 November Beijing advises its citizens against travelling to Japan, then suspends imports of Japanese seafood.[25]
December 19, 2025
The Bank of Japan raises rates
The policy rate goes to 0.75% on 19 December 2025, then to 1% on 16 June 2026 and 1.25% on 18 September 2026; it is held at that level on 30 October 2026. Higher rates raise the cost of servicing public debt.[6],[9],[7],[8]
February 8, 2026
Landslide in the snap general election
In the 8 February 2026 election the LDP wins 316 of the 465 House of Representatives seats, its best result since its founding in 1955; Ishin wins 36, while the main opposition Centrist Reform Alliance falls from 172 to 49 seats.[19],[20]
June 2026
Energy shock from the Middle East
A first FY2026 supplementary budget (3,113.5 billion yen, entirely financed by bonds) creates a 2,500 billion yen reserve to respond to the surge in energy prices linked to the situation in the Middle East.[5]
Method
Which value at the start and end of a term? The last figure whose period had ended on that date. For a term that began on 21 October 2025: September 2025 for a monthly series, Q3 2025 for a quarterly one, 2024 for an annual one. A term still running ends on the latest published figure. A change is shown only if the selected period covers at least half of the span between its two figures.
Why compare with the OECD as a whole? Part of the changes comes from common shocks (Covid, energy prices, interest rates). The change of the aggregate (OECD) over the same window is a benchmark: “better” means the country did better than that reference over the period, whatever the cause.
What this record does not say. It measures changes, not causes: an indicator that improves during a term is not necessarily due to the policies pursued, and vice versa. After one year, only the monthly and quarterly series describe the term. 2025 annual data (public finances, life expectancy, emissions) cover less than three months of the Takaichi government: they are not read here. Japanese prices are the Statistics Bureau’s national index (base 2020), compared in change with the OECD index.
Sources
- Indicators. OECD (quarterly national accounts, key economic indicators, labour force statistics, household dashboard, Economic Outlook No. 119), Statistics Bureau of Japan via DBnomics (consumer price index), World Bank, EDGAR (emissions) and Ember (renewable electricity, monthly), Japan and OECD total, extracted on 9 November 2026 by scripts/analyses/build-mandate-data.py.OECD Data ExplorerDBnomics
- Term dates. Prime Minister’s Office, list of successive Prime Ministers (Citoyen’s terms-of-office dataset).japan.kantei.go.jp
- [1] Policy Speech by Prime Minister TAKAICHI Sanae to the 219th Session of the Diet (24 October 2025) · Prime Minister’s Office of Japan (provisional translation, "The World and Japan" database, GRIPS)
- [2] Press Conference by Prime Minister Takaichi regarding the Passage of the FY2026 Budget and Responses to the Situation in the Middle East · Prime Minister’s Office of Japan
- [3] Overview of the Supplementary Budget for FY2025 (November 28, 2025) · Ministry of Finance, Japan
- [4] Highlights of the Draft FY2026 Budget (December 26, 2025) · Ministry of Finance, Japan
- [5] Overview of the Supplementary Budget for FY2026 (June 3, 2026) · Ministry of Finance, Japan
- [6] Change in the Guideline for Money Market Operations (December 19, 2025) · Bank of Japan
- [7] Change in the Guideline for Money Market Operations (September 18, 2026) · Bank of Japan
- [8] Statement on Monetary Policy (October 30, 2026) · Bank of Japan
- [9] BOJ Decides to Raise Policy Rate to 31-Year High of 1 Pct · Jiji Press (via Adnkronos) · secondary source
- [10] Japan’s LDP, Nippon Ishin Agree to Form Coalition Govt · Jiji Press (via Adnkronos) · secondary source
- [11] Japan Diet OKs Bill to Scrap Add-On Gasoline Tax · Jiji Press (via Adnkronos) · secondary source
- [12] Diet Enacts 18.3-T.-Yen Extra Budget for Stimulus Package · Jiji Press (via Adnkronos) · secondary source
- [13] LDP, DPFP Agree to Raise Taxable Income Threshold to 1.78 M. Yen · Jiji Press (via Adnkronos) · secondary source
- [14] Japan’s 2026 Tax Reform: A recap of recently enacted changes · EY Japan · secondary source
- [15] Japan Ruling Camp Submits Bill to Reduce Lower House Seats by 10 Pct · Jiji Press (via Adnkronos) · secondary source
- [16] Ruling Bloc Gives Up on Early Passage of Diet Seat Cut Bill · Jiji Press (via Adnkronos) · secondary source
- [17] Japanese House of Representatives expected to cut 31 proportional representation seats · Kyunghyang Shinmun (citing the Asahi Shimbun) · secondary source
- [18] Foreign Residents in Japan Facing Tighter Immigration Screening, Selective Acceptance · Nippon.com · secondary source
- [19] A Landslide for Takaichi’s LDP: House of Representatives Election Results · Nippon.com · secondary source
- [20] Japan’s Takaichi vows to deliver on tax cuts after LDP’s “historic” win · Al Jazeera · secondary source
- [21] Japan’s cabinet approves bill for 1st food consumption tax cut · CGTN · secondary source
- [22] Japan lower house passes food tax cut bill · Jiji Press · secondary source
- [23] Japan to Drop 3.5% Defense Spending Target From Security Papers · Seoul Economic Daily · secondary source
- [24] Takaichi’s Constitutional Reform · Japan Information Access Project (Asia Policy Point) · secondary source
- [25] Explainer: Why are China and Japan at odds over Taiwan? · Anadolu Agency · secondary source