USMCA: Mexico waiting on the review with Washington
The Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement enters its joint review from July 2026, against a backdrop of US tariffs. For Mexico the stakes are huge: most of its exports go to its northern neighbour. Trade, industry, investment and money sent home by emigrants.
Citoyen
Scope: Mexico, goods trade with the United States from the US Census Bureau (monthly) and the IMF (annual), manufacturing output (OECD, from INEGI), foreign direct investment and remittances (World Bank).
Key points
Mexican exports going to the United States83.0%share of the total, 2025
US purchases from Mexico over a year20.7%January to September 2026, against 2025
Mexico’s share of US imports17.4%January to September 2026, against 13.2% in 2015
Emigrants’ remittances$65.1bn2025, 3.6% of GDP
- An economy turned towards one customer. In 2025, 83.0% of Mexico’s goods exports went to the United States, a share that has stayed above three quarters since 2000 (88.7% that year).
- Sales to the United States rising fast. From January to September 2026, US imports from Mexico reach $482bn, 20.7% more than a year earlier; US exports to Mexico are up 17.6%.
- A growing place in US purchases. Mexico supplies 17.4% of US goods imports since January, against 15.6% in 2025 and 13.2% in 2015. The US trade deficit with Mexico reached $197bn in 2025.
- A growing industry. Mexican manufacturing output is up 3.2% over a year in Aug. 2026.
- Remittances slightly down. Emigrants sent $65.1bn in 2025, after a record $67.9bn in 2024. Foreign direct investment amounts to 2.4% of GDP the same year ($44.6bn).
How to read these figures
Bilateral trade is read in US statistics (Census Bureau, current dollars, not seasonally adjusted): US imports from Mexico and US exports to Mexico. The share of Mexican exports going to the United States comes from Mexican statistics reported to the IMF. The two sources do not measure exactly the same flows (transport, re-exports, timing).
For 2026, Citoyen compares the first nine months with the same months of 2025. Manufacturing output is a seasonally adjusted INEGI volume index published by the OECD. Foreign direct investment (net inflows) and remittances come from the World Bank, in current dollars and as % of GDP.
1. Trade with the United States
Trade between the two countries has grown strongly since 2000, and Mexico takes an ever larger place in US imports.
US imports from and exports to Mexico, by month
US Census Bureau, billions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted. Latest month: Sep. 2026, $62.2bn of imports.
- US exports to Mexico
- US imports from Mexico
Source:U.S. Census Bureau
Show the chart data
| Period | US imports from Mexico | US exports to Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| Jan. 2015 | $22.3bn | $19.1bn |
| Feb. 2015 | $22.7bn | $18.2bn |
| Mar. 2015 | $25.7bn | $19.9bn |
| Apr. 2015 | $24.7bn | $20.0bn |
| May 2015 | $24.5bn | $19.7bn |
| Jun. 2015 | $26.9bn | $20.5bn |
| Jul. 2015 | $24.8bn | $21.2bn |
| Aug. 2015 | $24.7bn | $19.6bn |
| Sep. 2015 | $25.3bn | $19.5bn |
| Oct. 2015 | $27.7bn | $21.2bn |
| Nov. 2015 | $24.0bn | $18.9bn |
| Dec. 2015 | $23.2bn | $18.6bn |
| Jan. 2016 | $22.3bn | $18.0bn |
| Feb. 2016 | $23.1bn | $18.1bn |
| Mar. 2016 | $24.7bn | $19.3bn |
| Apr. 2016 | $25.0bn | $19.4bn |
| May 2016 | $24.8bn | $19.0bn |
| Jun. 2016 | $24.8bn | $19.5bn |
| Jul. 2016 | $22.9bn | $18.3bn |
| Aug. 2016 | $25.5bn | $20.0bn |
| Sep. 2016 | $25.1bn | $19.7bn |
| Oct. 2016 | $26.4bn | $20.2bn |
| Nov. 2016 | $25.4bn | $19.6bn |
| Dec. 2016 | $23.5bn | $19.1bn |
| Jan. 2017 | $23.5bn | $19.7bn |
| Feb. 2017 | $23.8bn | $18.2bn |
| Mar. 2017 | $27.9bn | $21.0bn |
| Apr. 2017 | $25.0bn | $18.9bn |
| May 2017 | $27.0bn | $19.9bn |
| Jun. 2017 | $27.2bn | $21.4bn |
| Jul. 2017 | $24.5bn | $19.8bn |
| Aug. 2017 | $26.9bn | $20.9bn |
| Sep. 2017 | $25.7bn | $20.2bn |
| Oct. 2017 | $28.6bn | $22.1bn |
| Nov. 2017 | $27.5bn | $21.7bn |
| Dec. 2017 | $25.1bn | $19.7bn |
| Jan. 2018 | $25.8bn | $21.4bn |
| Feb. 2018 | $25.8bn | $20.4bn |
| Mar. 2018 | $29.8bn | $22.0bn |
| Apr. 2018 | $27.9bn | $22.5bn |
| May 2018 | $29.2bn | $23.0bn |
| Jun. 2018 | $29.3bn | $22.2bn |
| Jul. 2018 | $28.0bn | $22.9bn |
| Aug. 2018 | $30.9bn | $22.6bn |
| Sep. 2018 | $29.0bn | $21.7bn |
| Oct. 2018 | $31.6bn | $24.8bn |
| Nov. 2018 | $29.5bn | $23.0bn |
| Dec. 2018 | $26.9bn | $19.5bn |
| Jan. 2019 | $27.6bn | $22.0bn |
| Feb. 2019 | $27.5bn | $20.3bn |
| Mar. 2019 | $31.1bn | $21.8bn |
| Apr. 2019 | $30.2bn | $22.3bn |
| May 2019 | $31.9bn | $22.7bn |
| Jun. 2019 | $30.2bn | $20.7bn |
| Jul. 2019 | $30.0bn | $22.2bn |
| Aug. 2019 | $30.9bn | $22.0bn |
| Sep. 2019 | $29.3bn | $20.6bn |
| Oct. 2019 | $30.9bn | $22.3bn |
| Nov. 2019 | $29.1bn | $20.8bn |
| Dec. 2019 | $27.5bn | $19.0bn |
| Jan. 2020 | $28.2bn | $20.8bn |
| Feb. 2020 | $28.9bn | $19.3bn |
| Mar. 2020 | $29.9bn | $19.8bn |
| Apr. 2020 | $15.8bn | $12.4bn |
| May 2020 | $14.9bn | $10.4bn |
| Jun. 2020 | $25.7bn | $15.8bn |
| Jul. 2020 | $28.9bn | $18.7bn |
| Aug. 2020 | $29.6bn | $17.2bn |
| Sep. 2020 | $29.8bn | $18.7bn |
| Oct. 2020 | $32.8bn | $20.5bn |
| Nov. 2020 | $29.8bn | $19.4bn |
| Dec. 2020 | $29.4bn | $19.5bn |
| Jan. 2021 | $29.0bn | $19.6bn |
| Feb. 2021 | $27.2bn | $21.4bn |
| Mar. 2021 | $33.3bn | $23.3bn |
| Apr. 2021 | $32.0bn | $22.4bn |
| May 2021 | $31.1bn | $22.9bn |
| Jun. 2021 | $32.8bn | $24.2bn |
| Jul. 2021 | $31.8bn | $23.9bn |
| Aug. 2021 | $32.0bn | $24.4bn |
| Sep. 2021 | $31.8bn | $22.8bn |
| Oct. 2021 | $34.1bn | $24.5bn |
| Nov. 2021 | $34.5bn | $24.0bn |
| Dec. 2021 | $33.0bn | $23.8bn |
| Jan. 2022 | $33.2bn | $23.9bn |
| Feb. 2022 | $32.5bn | $23.7bn |
| Mar. 2022 | $40.0bn | $28.6bn |
| Apr. 2022 | $38.5bn | $27.6bn |
| May 2022 | $39.4bn | $29.4bn |
| Jun. 2022 | $39.1bn | $29.6bn |
| Jul. 2022 | $37.7bn | $27.6bn |
| Aug. 2022 | $39.8bn | $30.2bn |
| Sep. 2022 | $39.2bn | $27.9bn |
| Oct. 2022 | $40.1bn | $28.2bn |
| Nov. 2022 | $36.6bn | $25.7bn |
| Dec. 2022 | $35.8bn | $24.6bn |
| Jan. 2023 | $36.7bn | $27.3bn |
| Feb. 2023 | $35.5bn | $25.0bn |
| Mar. 2023 | $42.7bn | $29.3bn |
| Apr. 2023 | $37.9bn | $25.0bn |
| May 2023 | $41.1bn | $27.4bn |
| Jun. 2023 | $40.8bn | $27.3bn |
| Jul. 2023 | $38.7bn | $26.5bn |
| Aug. 2023 | $41.5bn | $29.2bn |
| Sep. 2023 | $39.3bn | $27.7bn |
| Oct. 2023 | $42.7bn | $29.8bn |
| Nov. 2023 | $39.6bn | $26.0bn |
| Dec. 2023 | $36.4bn | $23.9bn |
| Jan. 2024 | $37.8bn | $26.5bn |
| Feb. 2024 | $40.0bn | $27.0bn |
| Mar. 2024 | $41.4bn | $27.1bn |
| Apr. 2024 | $42.9bn | $29.5bn |
| May 2024 | $43.7bn | $29.1bn |
| Jun. 2024 | $42.0bn | $27.8bn |
| Jul. 2024 | $41.7bn | $28.8bn |
| Aug. 2024 | $43.4bn | $30.0bn |
| Sep. 2024 | $44.0bn | $28.3bn |
| Oct. 2024 | $45.2bn | $29.0bn |
| Nov. 2024 | $42.1bn | $26.9bn |
| Dec. 2024 | $39.0bn | $24.5bn |
| Jan. 2025 | $41.6bn | $28.0bn |
| Feb. 2025 | $41.6bn | $26.7bn |
| Mar. 2025 | $48.0bn | $29.4bn |
| Apr. 2025 | $41.8bn | $27.8bn |
| May 2025 | $46.1bn | $28.1bn |
| Jun. 2025 | $44.8bn | $27.7bn |
| Jul. 2025 | $45.3bn | $28.9bn |
| Aug. 2025 | $45.2bn | $29.2bn |
| Sep. 2025 | $44.6bn | $27.2bn |
| Oct. 2025 | $48.5bn | $29.5bn |
| Nov. 2025 | $44.4bn | $26.6bn |
| Dec. 2025 | $42.4bn | $28.0bn |
| Jan. 2026 | $42.5bn | $31.6bn |
| Feb. 2026 | $44.3bn | $28.9bn |
| Mar. 2026 | $51.2bn | $32.8bn |
| Apr. 2026 | $50.7bn | $35.3bn |
| May 2026 | $54.2bn | $33.1bn |
| Jun. 2026 | $55.3bn | $33.9bn |
| Jul. 2026 | $60.5bn | $34.2bn |
| Aug. 2026 | $60.6bn | $33.7bn |
| Sep. 2026 | $62.2bn | $34.1bn |
Goods trade between the United States and Mexico, by year
Complete years. In 2025: $534bn of US imports, $337bn of exports.
- US exports to Mexico
- US imports from Mexico
Source:U.S. Census Bureau
Show the chart data
| Period | US imports from Mexico | US exports to Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | $136bn | $111bn |
| 2001 | $131bn | $101bn |
| 2002 | $135bn | $97bn |
| 2003 | $138bn | $97bn |
| 2004 | $156bn | $111bn |
| 2005 | $170bn | $120bn |
| 2006 | $198bn | $134bn |
| 2007 | $211bn | $136bn |
| 2008 | $216bn | $151bn |
| 2009 | $177bn | $129bn |
| 2010 | $230bn | $164bn |
| 2011 | $263bn | $198bn |
| 2012 | $278bn | $216bn |
| 2013 | $281bn | $226bn |
| 2014 | $296bn | $241bn |
| 2015 | $296bn | $236bn |
| 2016 | $294bn | $230bn |
| 2017 | $313bn | $244bn |
| 2018 | $344bn | $266bn |
| 2019 | $356bn | $257bn |
| 2020 | $323bn | $213bn |
| 2021 | $383bn | $277bn |
| 2022 | $452bn | $327bn |
| 2023 | $473bn | $324bn |
| 2024 | $503bn | $334bn |
| 2025 | $534bn | $337bn |
Mexico’s share of US goods imports
Complete years.
Source:U.S. Census Bureau
Show the chart data
| Period | Mexico’s share |
|---|---|
| 2000 | 11.2% |
| 2001 | 11.5% |
| 2002 | 11.6% |
| 2003 | 11.0% |
| 2004 | 10.6% |
| 2005 | 10.2% |
| 2006 | 10.7% |
| 2007 | 10.8% |
| 2008 | 10.3% |
| 2009 | 11.3% |
| 2010 | 12.0% |
| 2011 | 11.9% |
| 2012 | 12.2% |
| 2013 | 12.4% |
| 2014 | 12.6% |
| 2015 | 13.2% |
| 2016 | 13.4% |
| 2017 | 13.4% |
| 2018 | 13.6% |
| 2019 | 14.3% |
| 2020 | 13.9% |
| 2021 | 13.5% |
| 2022 | 14.0% |
| 2023 | 15.4% |
| 2024 | 15.4% |
| 2025 | 15.6% |
2. Mexico’s dependence
More than four Mexican exports in five go to the United States: any change in the rules of access to that market directly affects the country’s economy.
US share of Mexican exports
IMF, trade statistics by partner, exports free on board.
Source:International Monetary Fund
Show the chart data
| Period | US share |
|---|---|
| 2000 | 88.7% |
| 2001 | 88.5% |
| 2002 | 88.1% |
| 2003 | 87.6% |
| 2004 | 87.5% |
| 2005 | 85.7% |
| 2006 | 84.7% |
| 2007 | 82.1% |
| 2008 | 80.2% |
| 2009 | 80.6% |
| 2010 | 80.0% |
| 2011 | 78.5% |
| 2012 | 77.6% |
| 2013 | 78.8% |
| 2014 | 80.2% |
| 2015 | 81.2% |
| 2016 | 80.9% |
| 2017 | 79.8% |
| 2018 | 79.5% |
| 2019 | 80.5% |
| 2020 | 81.2% |
| 2021 | 80.6% |
| 2022 | 81.8% |
| 2023 | 82.7% |
| 2024 | 83.0% |
| 2025 | 83.0% |
Mexico’s manufacturing output
Volume index, seasonally adjusted (OECD, from INEGI). Latest month: Aug. 2026.
Source:OECD (INEGI)
Show the chart data
| Period | Manufacturing output |
|---|---|
| Jan. 2015 | 97.9 |
| Feb. 2015 | 99.4 |
| Mar. 2015 | 98.5 |
| Apr. 2015 | 99.6 |
| May 2015 | 99.2 |
| Jun. 2015 | 99.6 |
| Jul. 2015 | 99.7 |
| Aug. 2015 | 100.4 |
| Sep. 2015 | 102.0 |
| Oct. 2015 | 101.8 |
| Nov. 2015 | 100.7 |
| Dec. 2015 | 101.4 |
| Jan. 2016 | 100.8 |
| Feb. 2016 | 100.8 |
| Mar. 2016 | 99.8 |
| Apr. 2016 | 99.9 |
| May 2016 | 100.0 |
| Jun. 2016 | 100.3 |
| Jul. 2016 | 100.4 |
| Aug. 2016 | 101.0 |
| Sep. 2016 | 100.9 |
| Oct. 2016 | 101.0 |
| Nov. 2016 | 101.9 |
| Dec. 2016 | 103.1 |
| Jan. 2017 | 104.0 |
| Feb. 2017 | 103.7 |
| Mar. 2017 | 104.0 |
| Apr. 2017 | 104.1 |
| May 2017 | 103.5 |
| Jun. 2017 | 103.1 |
| Jul. 2017 | 103.1 |
| Aug. 2017 | 103.7 |
| Sep. 2017 | 102.1 |
| Oct. 2017 | 103.8 |
| Nov. 2017 | 104.2 |
| Dec. 2017 | 104.2 |
| Jan. 2018 | 103.3 |
| Feb. 2018 | 103.4 |
| Mar. 2018 | 105.1 |
| Apr. 2018 | 102.9 |
| May 2018 | 105.2 |
| Jun. 2018 | 105.3 |
| Jul. 2018 | 105.4 |
| Aug. 2018 | 106.0 |
| Sep. 2018 | 106.4 |
| Oct. 2018 | 105.4 |
| Nov. 2018 | 106.1 |
| Dec. 2018 | 104.8 |
| Jan. 2019 | 104.9 |
| Feb. 2019 | 105.7 |
| Mar. 2019 | 104.7 |
| Apr. 2019 | 106.0 |
| May 2019 | 105.8 |
| Jun. 2019 | 106.0 |
| Jul. 2019 | 106.1 |
| Aug. 2019 | 105.7 |
| Sep. 2019 | 106.0 |
| Oct. 2019 | 103.3 |
| Nov. 2019 | 102.7 |
| Dec. 2019 | 101.7 |
| Jan. 2020 | 103.4 |
| Feb. 2020 | 103.1 |
| Mar. 2020 | 98.7 |
| Apr. 2020 | 71.2 |
| May 2020 | 71.9 |
| Jun. 2020 | 91.4 |
| Jul. 2020 | 96.9 |
| Aug. 2020 | 99.6 |
| Sep. 2020 | 103.7 |
| Oct. 2020 | 104.3 |
| Nov. 2020 | 104.3 |
| Dec. 2020 | 105.0 |
| Jan. 2021 | 104.5 |
| Feb. 2021 | 101.5 |
| Mar. 2021 | 105.7 |
| Apr. 2021 | 105.1 |
| May 2021 | 104.1 |
| Jun. 2021 | 104.7 |
| Jul. 2021 | 104.8 |
| Aug. 2021 | 104.6 |
| Sep. 2021 | 102.5 |
| Oct. 2021 | 104.7 |
| Nov. 2021 | 105.8 |
| Dec. 2021 | 107.6 |
| Jan. 2022 | 108.3 |
| Feb. 2022 | 108.7 |
| Mar. 2022 | 109.0 |
| Apr. 2022 | 109.7 |
| May 2022 | 110.7 |
| Jun. 2022 | 109.4 |
| Jul. 2022 | 110.8 |
| Aug. 2022 | 112.1 |
| Sep. 2022 | 111.2 |
| Oct. 2022 | 111.7 |
| Nov. 2022 | 112.0 |
| Dec. 2022 | 113.3 |
| Jan. 2023 | 112.7 |
| Feb. 2023 | 111.8 |
| Mar. 2023 | 111.1 |
| Apr. 2023 | 112.9 |
| May 2023 | 112.6 |
| Jun. 2023 | 112.1 |
| Jul. 2023 | 112.8 |
| Aug. 2023 | 111.9 |
| Sep. 2023 | 112.4 |
| Oct. 2023 | 112.7 |
| Nov. 2023 | 111.8 |
| Dec. 2023 | 111.4 |
| Jan. 2024 | 111.7 |
| Feb. 2024 | 110.9 |
| Mar. 2024 | 112.3 |
| Apr. 2024 | 110.2 |
| May 2024 | 110.4 |
| Jun. 2024 | 112.2 |
| Jul. 2024 | 112.0 |
| Aug. 2024 | 111.9 |
| Sep. 2024 | 112.8 |
| Oct. 2024 | 111.7 |
| Nov. 2024 | 111.7 |
| Dec. 2024 | 110.8 |
| Jan. 2025 | 111.2 |
| Feb. 2025 | 112.9 |
| Mar. 2025 | 111.9 |
| Apr. 2025 | 112.0 |
| May 2025 | 112.1 |
| Jun. 2025 | 112.4 |
| Jul. 2025 | 110.5 |
| Aug. 2025 | 109.9 |
| Sep. 2025 | 110.5 |
| Oct. 2025 | 110.3 |
| Nov. 2025 | 110.9 |
| Dec. 2025 | 110.7 |
| Jan. 2026 | 109.7 |
| Feb. 2026 | 110.5 |
| Mar. 2026 | 110.5 |
| Apr. 2026 | 111.8 |
| May 2026 | 111.8 |
| Jun. 2026 | 111.2 |
| Jul. 2026 | 112.1 |
| Aug. 2026 | 113.5 |
3. Investment and remittances
Two financial flows also tie Mexico to the United States: investment by foreign firms and the money sent by Mexicans living abroad, mostly in the United States.
Foreign direct investment and remittances, % of GDP
World Bank. Remittances: $65.1bn in 2025, against $26.8bn in 2015.
- Remittances
- Foreign direct investment
Source:World Bank
Show the chart data
| Period | Foreign direct investment | Remittances |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 2.5% of GDP | 1.0% of GDP |
| 2001 | 3.8% of GDP | 1.3% of GDP |
| 2002 | 2.5% of GDP | 1.4% of GDP |
| 2003 | 2.4% of GDP | 2.2% of GDP |
| 2004 | 3.1% of GDP | 2.4% of GDP |
| 2005 | 2.7% of GDP | 2.5% of GDP |
| 2006 | 2.2% of GDP | 2.6% of GDP |
| 2007 | 2.8% of GDP | 2.5% of GDP |
| 2008 | 2.6% of GDP | 2.3% of GDP |
| 2009 | 2.1% of GDP | 2.4% of GDP |
| 2010 | 2.8% of GDP | 2.1% of GDP |
| 2011 | 1.9% of GDP | 2.0% of GDP |
| 2012 | 1.5% of GDP | 1.9% of GDP |
| 2013 | 3.8% of GDP | 1.8% of GDP |
| 2014 | 2.1% of GDP | 1.9% of GDP |
| 2015 | 3.0% of GDP | 2.2% of GDP |
| 2016 | 3.5% of GDP | 2.6% of GDP |
| 2017 | 2.8% of GDP | 2.8% of GDP |
| 2018 | 3.0% of GDP | 2.9% of GDP |
| 2019 | 2.3% of GDP | 3.1% of GDP |
| 2020 | 2.8% of GDP | 3.9% of GDP |
| 2021 | 2.7% of GDP | 4.2% of GDP |
| 2022 | 2.7% of GDP | 4.2% of GDP |
| 2023 | 1.7% of GDP | 3.7% of GDP |
| 2024 | 2.5% of GDP | 3.7% of GDP |
| 2025 | 2.4% of GDP | 3.6% of GDP |
What we know, what we don’t
What the figures establish
- More than four Mexican exports in five go to the United States.
- US purchases from Mexico rose sharply in 2026 despite tariffs.
- Emigrants’ remittances edged down in 2025 after their 2024 record.
What they don’t tell
- The outcome of the agreement’s joint review and the rules that will come out of it.
- How much of the 2026 rise is due to purchases brought forward or production moved from other countries: these series do not measure the effect of trade policies.
- The Mexican value added contained in these exports, often assembled from imported parts.
Sources
Series downloaded from their producers on Nov 12, 2026, the snapshot date. Only published periods are used: no projection.
- International Monetary Fund International Trade in Goods by partner country (IMTS), Mexico, exports FOB
- OECD (INEGI) Key Economic Indicators, production volume, manufacturing, seasonally adjusted (DF_KEI)
- U.S. Census Bureau U.S. Trade in Goods by Country, monthly, Census basis (country.xlsx)
- World Bank Foreign direct investment, net inflows (BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS, BX.KLT.DINV.CD.WD)
- World Bank Personal remittances, received (BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DT, BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS)