Russia: from oil surpluses to a war budget
From the 1998 default to oil surpluses, then back to deficits with the war: Russia’s public revenue and spending since 2000, its reliance on oil and gas, and a comparison with France.
Scope: Russian general government (federal government, regions, local government, social funds), IMF government finance statistics, calendar years, 2000 to 2021; balance, revenue, spending and debt to 2025 from the IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2026). Russian official data: the best available, with questionable reliability since 2022.
Key points
- In 2021, the last year before the war, Russian general government spent ₽47,706bn (35.1% of GDP) against ₽50,906bn of revenue (37.5%): a surplus of 2.4% of GDP, with gross debt of 16.5% of GDP.
- Since the war, deficits are back: according to the IMF, public spending rose from 34.9% of GDP in 2021 to 39.1% in 2025 (+4.2 points), while revenue stayed around 35%. The balance went from a surplus of 0.8% to a deficit of 3.9% of GDP in 2025. Debt remains low: 16.6% of GDP.
- A budget resting on oil and gas: in 2008, export duties weighed 6.4% of GDP and the extraction tax 4.3%. The sector’s tax reform shifted the burden from one to the other: in 2021, 1.9% for export duties and 6.2% for extraction. VAT took over too: from 4.8% of GDP in 2008 to 6.9% in 2021 (rate raised from 18% to 20% in 2019).
- From default to surpluses: after the 1998 default (deficit of 7.4% of GDP, debt of 135%), rising oil prices brought surpluses of up to 9.5% of GDP in 2005 and cut debt to 7.4% in 2008. The 2009 crisis (−5.3%) and the 2014-2015 oil slump then reopened deficits.
- Ageing: people aged 65 and over went from 12.3% of the population in 2000 to 17.8% in 2025. Social benefits rose from 9.1% of GDP in 2008 to 13.4% in 2020. Compared with France, Russia spent 23.2 points of GDP less in 2021 (35.1% against 58.3%), and paid 15.5 points less in social benefits in 2020.
- Why the detail stops in 2021: the detailed accounts Russia reported to the IMF for 2022 and 2023 show surpluses (+2.5% and +5.3% of GDP), contradicted by the IMF’s own estimates (−1.3% and −2.2%). They are not used. Military spending is not separated in these accounts after 2020.
Revenue and spending, year by year
For each year: left bar = revenue (grey), right bar = spending (colours), stacked by type. The gap between the two bars is the surplus or deficit. Tap a legend item to isolate it. Amounts in billions of roubles. Spending is shown by nature; 2021 is not split. The war years are in the IMF charts below.
See the card:Public spending →
What worsened (or improved) the balance
Change of each item in points of GDP between two years, spending by nature (to 2020). Spending that rises, or revenue that falls, worsens the balance (bar to the left); revenue that rises improves it.
Public balance: 0.7% of GDP in 2013, −2.8% in 2020, a change of −3.5 points. Contribution of spending: −2.6 pt; of revenue: −0.8 pt.
- Social benefits (pensions, allowances, reimbursed care)
- Public employee compensation
- Operating purchases
- Interest on debt
- Subsidies
- Investment
- Other transfers
- Revenue
Detail by item · 2013 → 2020
| Detail by item | Side | 2013 | 2020 | Change (pt) | Effect on balance (pt) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other taxes on goods and services (excises, oil and gas export duties, customs…) | Revenue | 8.42 | 4.13 | −4.29 | −4.29 |
| Public employee compensation | Spending | 9.49 | 10.28 | +0.79 | −0.79 |
| Investment | Spending | 4.39 | 5.09 | +0.69 | −0.69 |
| Other revenue (oil and gas extraction tax, dividends, fund income…) | Revenue | 12.09 | 11.47 | −0.62 | −0.62 |
| Social benefits (pensions, allowances, reimbursed care) | Spending | 12.80 | 13.35 | +0.55 | −0.55 |
| Payroll, property and other taxes | Revenue | 1.46 | 0.99 | −0.47 | −0.47 |
| Other transfers | Spending | 1.25 | 1.60 | +0.35 | −0.35 |
| Interest on debt | Spending | 0.64 | 0.93 | +0.29 | −0.29 |
| Operating purchases | Spending | 5.89 | 6.06 | +0.17 | −0.17 |
| Subsidies | Spending | 4.21 | 4.01 | −0.21 | +0.21 |
| Household income taxes | Revenue | 3.43 | 3.69 | +0.25 | +0.25 |
| Corporate income tax | Revenue | 2.78 | 3.72 | +0.95 | +0.95 |
| Social contributions | Revenue | 6.31 | 7.71 | +1.41 | +1.41 |
| VAT (NDS) | Revenue | 4.91 | 6.86 | +1.95 | +1.95 |
| Total revenue | Revenue | 39.39 | 38.57 | −0.83 | −0.83 |
| Total spending | Spending | 38.69 | 41.32 | +2.63 | −2.63 |
| Balance | Balance | 0.71 | -2.76 | −3.46 | −3.46 |
The drivers
The war years according to the IMF
General government revenue and spending, % of GDP, IMF World Economic Outlook (actual years). Another source than the detailed accounts above: levels differ slightly.
- Spending · 39.1% (2025)
- Revenue · 35.3% (2025)
Public balance since 1998
% of GDP. Negative = deficit. Outside 2000-2021: IMF World Economic Outlook.
- Balance · −3.9% (2025)
See the card:Budget balance →
Oil and gas in revenue
Extraction tax (rents) and export duties, % of GDP.
- Extraction tax · 6.2% (2021)
- Export duties · 1.9% (2021)
Gross public debt
% of GDP, IMF (World Economic Outlook), actual years.
- Gross debt · 16.6% (2025)
See the card:Public debt →
The demographic driver
Share of people aged 65 and over (%), World Bank.
- 65 and over · 15.7% (2021)
See the card:Share of people aged 65 and over →
Who runs the balance?
Balance by level of government, % of GDP.
- Federal government · 1.3% (2021)
- Regions · 1.2% (2021)
- Social funds · −0.1% (2021)
Russia and France
Same IMF government finance statistics for both countries, same scope (general government), % of GDP, up to 2021. Spending is compared by nature (to 2020). To the right of a gap chart, Russia is above France.
Public spending, % of GDP
- Russia · 35.1% (2021)
- France · 58.3% (2021)
See the card:Public spending →
Public revenue, % of GDP
- Russia · 37.5% (2021)
- France · 51.8% (2021)
Public balance, % of GDP
- Russia · 2.4% (2021)
- France · −6.6% (2021)
See the card:Budget balance →
Gross public debt, % of GDP
- Russia · 16.5% (2021)
- France · 125.8% (2021)
See the card:Public debt →
Revenue structure
One bar per country, stacked by type of revenue, % of GDP.
- Social contributions
- Household income taxes
- VAT
- Other taxes on goods and services
- Corporate income tax
- Payroll, property and other taxes
- Other revenue
Where Russia raises more (or less) than France
Russia minus France, points of GDP, same year. To the right, Russia is above.
- Russia − France · 2021
Spending by nature
What public money pays for: wages, social benefits, purchases, interest… Russia pays far fewer social benefits and almost no interest.
- Social benefits (pensions, allowances, reimbursed care)
- Public employee compensation
- Operating purchases
- Interest on debt
- Subsidies
- Investment
- Other transfers
Russia − France by type of spending, points of GDP
- Russia − France · 2020
Yearly data
Show the table of revenue, spending, balance and debt by year
| Year | Revenue | Spending | Balance | Balance (% of GDP) | Debt (% of GDP) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | ₽50,906bn | ₽47,706bn | ₽3,200bn | 2.4% | 16.5% |
| 2020 | ₽41,522bn | ₽44,488bn | −₽2,966bn | −2.8% | 19.2% |
| 2019 | ₽44,665bn | ₽41,424bn | ₽3,241bn | 3.0% | 13.7% |
| 2018 | ₽39,982bn | ₽35,645bn | ₽4,337bn | 4.2% | 13.6% |
| 2017 | ₽32,891bn | ₽33,646bn | −₽755bn | −0.8% | 14.3% |
| 2016 | ₽31,176bn | ₽32,380bn | −₽1,205bn | −1.4% | 14.8% |
| 2015 | ₽31,110bn | ₽32,877bn | −₽1,767bn | −2.1% | 15.3% |
| 2014 | ₽31,046bn | ₽31,725bn | −₽679bn | −0.9% | 15.1% |
| 2013 | ₽28,752bn | ₽28,237bn | ₽515bn | 0.7% | 12.3% |
| 2012 | ₽27,797bn | ₽26,001bn | ₽1,796bn | 2.6% | 11.2% |
| 2011 | ₽25,390bn | ₽23,520bn | ₽1,870bn | 3.1% | 10.3% |
| 2010 | ₽18,865bn | ₽19,537bn | −₽672bn | −1.4% | 10.1% |
| 2009 | ₽16,340bn | ₽18,540bn | −₽2,200bn | −5.3% | 9.9% |
| 2008 | ₽20,097bn | ₽17,855bn | ₽2,242bn | 5.1% | 7.4% |
| 2007 | ₽15,798bn | ₽13,430bn | ₽2,369bn | 6.6% | 8.0% |
| 2006 | ₽10,861bn | ₽8,530bn | ₽2,331bn | 8.1% | 9.8% |
| 2005 | ₽9,072bn | ₽6,864bn | ₽2,208bn | 9.5% | 14.9% |
| 2004 | ₽6,773bn | ₽5,787bn | ₽986bn | 5.4% | 20.8% |
| 2003 | ₽5,314bn | ₽5,064bn | ₽250bn | 1.8% | 28.3% |
| 2002 | ₽5,385bn | ₽4,638bn | ₽747bn | 6.4% | 37.6% |
| 2001 | ₽3,588bn | ₽3,343bn | ₽245bn | 2.6% | 44.4% |
| 2000 | ₽2,768bn | ₽2,514bn | ₽254bn | 3.2% | 55.9% |
Sources and method
- IMF, Government Finance Statistics (GFS). Revenue by type, spending by nature (to 2020), balance by level of government, extraction tax and export duties: Russian general government, 2000–2021. France in the comparison is read from the same tables. 2022 and 2023, contradicted by IMF estimates, are left out.IMF GFS (DBnomics)
- IMF, World Economic Outlook (October 2026). Revenue, spending and balance from 2022 to 2025, balance before 2000, gross debt, GDP deflator. Only actual years are kept: IMF estimates and projections are left out.IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2026
- World Bank. Share of people aged 65 and over.World Bank SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS
- Method and reliability. Spending = expense + net investment in non-financial assets; balance = net lending or borrowing. Constant roubles: current roubles adjusted with the GDP deflator. Russian official statistics are the best available, but their reliability is questionable, especially since 2022: restricted publications, classified military spending.
- Further reading. Ministry of Finance, Bank of Russia.Минфин РоссииБанк России