Vision 2030 scaled back: NEOM and Saudi Arabia’s diversification
Launched in 2016, the Vision 2030 plan was meant to end the Saudi economy’s dependence on oil. As Riyadh scales back several giga-projects, including the new city of NEOM, the available figures show a real but slow diversification: manufacturing, tax revenue, foreign investment.
Scope: Saudi Arabia. Value added by sector, oil rents, exports and foreign direct investment (World Bank), GDP growth (IMF, actual years), central-government revenue by nature (IMF Government Finance Statistics, 2018 to 2023). The public balance and debt are covered in the Saudi deficit analysis.
Key points
- Manufacturing is growing. It accounts for 15.8% of GDP in 2025, against 13.1% of GDP in 2015, the year before Vision 2030 was launched.
- Oil still dominates exports. Fuels make up 78.7% of merchandise exports in 2025, almost as much as in 2015 (78.4%).
- The state still lives mostly on rent. In 2023, property income (oil rents, Saudi Aramco dividends) brings 64% of central-government revenue. Taxes, VAT included, raise 357bn riyals, against 263bn riyals in 2018, but their share remains 29%.
- Growth at the pace of oil. GDP grew 12.0% in 2022, a year of high oil prices and output, then 0.5% in 2023 and 4.6% in 2025.
- More foreign investment, at a modest level. Net inflows reach 2.6% of GDP in 2025, against 0.3% of GDP in 2019.
How to read these figures
Value added by sector is shown as a share of GDP: « industry » includes oil and gas extraction, so it moves with the oil price; the services share rises mechanically when oil falls. Manufacturing, a subset of industry, is the most direct measure of productive diversification. Oil rents (World Bank) estimate the value of oil extracted minus its production cost; the series stops in 2021.
State revenue follows the IMF classification for central government: taxes (including VAT, raised from 5% to 15% in July 2020); property income, which groups natural-resource rents and dividends; other revenue. GASTAT’s national statistics on oil and non-oil GDP cannot be reached from Citoyen’s servers; NEOM and the other giga-projects are covered by no public series.
1. The weight of oil in the economy
The share of industry, which includes oil, follows the oil price: it reaches 53.1% of GDP in 2022, then 43.0% of GDP in 2025. Manufacturing grows more steadily.
Value added by sector, share of GDP
Industry: oil and gas extraction included. Services in 2025: 48.9% of GDP.
- Services
- Manufacturing
- Industry (oil included)
Source:World Bank
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| Period | Industry (oil included) | Manufacturing | Services |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 48.6% of GDP | 8.3% of GDP | 44.2% of GDP |
| 1991 | 48.3% of GDP | 8.3% of GDP | 45.0% of GDP |
| 1992 | 51.0% of GDP | 8.8% of GDP | 41.7% of GDP |
| 1993 | 47.3% of GDP | 8.8% of GDP | 44.8% of GDP |
| 1994 | 47.1% of GDP | 9.0% of GDP | 45.2% of GDP |
| 1995 | 48.5% of GDP | 9.3% of GDP | 44.3% of GDP |
| 1996 | 51.4% of GDP | 9.5% of GDP | 41.7% of GDP |
| 1997 | 50.2% of GDP | 9.8% of GDP | 43.0% of GDP |
| 1998 | 43.2% of GDP | 10.2% of GDP | 48.9% of GDP |
| 1999 | 46.8% of GDP | 9.9% of GDP | 45.9% of GDP |
| 2000 | 53.5% of GDP | 9.2% of GDP | 40.3% of GDP |
| 2001 | 50.8% of GDP | 9.6% of GDP | 43.1% of GDP |
| 2002 | 51.0% of GDP | 9.9% of GDP | 42.9% of GDP |
| 2003 | 54.0% of GDP | 10.3% of GDP | 40.6% of GDP |
| 2004 | 56.7% of GDP | 10.1% of GDP | 38.5% of GDP |
| 2005 | 61.7% of GDP | 9.4% of GDP | 34.3% of GDP |
| 2006 | 62.5% of GDP | 9.4% of GDP | 33.8% of GDP |
| 2007 | 62.7% of GDP | 9.8% of GDP | 33.8% of GDP |
| 2008 | 66.4% of GDP | 8.8% of GDP | 30.5% of GDP |
| 2009 | 54.6% of GDP | 10.6% of GDP | 41.7% of GDP |
| 2010 | 58.0% of GDP | 10.8% of GDP | 38.6% of GDP |
| 2011 | 63.1% of GDP | 9.9% of GDP | 34.1% of GDP |
| 2012 | 61.9% of GDP | 9.8% of GDP | 35.2% of GDP |
| 2013 | 59.0% of GDP | 10.0% of GDP | 38.1% of GDP |
| 2014 | 56.2% of GDP | 11.0% of GDP | 40.8% of GDP |
| 2015 | 44.6% of GDP | 13.1% of GDP | 51.6% of GDP |
| 2016 | 42.5% of GDP | 13.5% of GDP | 53.6% of GDP |
| 2017 | 44.9% of GDP | 13.4% of GDP | 51.4% of GDP |
| 2018 | 49.0% of GDP | 12.6% of GDP | 46.0% of GDP |
| 2019 | 45.7% of GDP | 12.9% of GDP | 49.1% of GDP |
| 2020 | 38.3% of GDP | 13.4% of GDP | 54.6% of GDP |
| 2021 | 46.0% of GDP | 14.1% of GDP | 45.8% of GDP |
| 2022 | 53.1% of GDP | 15.1% of GDP | 40.2% of GDP |
| 2023 | 47.6% of GDP | 15.9% of GDP | 44.8% of GDP |
| 2024 | 45.2% of GDP | 16.1% of GDP | 46.9% of GDP |
| 2025 | 43.0% of GDP | 15.8% of GDP | 48.9% of GDP |
Oil rents, share of GDP
Value of oil extracted minus its production cost (World Bank). Recent peak: 49.2% of GDP in 2011; latest year: 23.7% of GDP in 2021.
Source:World Bank
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| Period | Oil rents |
|---|---|
| 1990 | 46.4% of GDP |
| 1991 | 29.9% of GDP |
| 1992 | 30.8% of GDP |
| 1993 | 29.7% of GDP |
| 1994 | 26.5% of GDP |
| 1995 | 28.1% of GDP |
| 1996 | 33.5% of GDP |
| 1997 | 29.3% of GDP |
| 1998 | 21.3% of GDP |
| 1999 | 27.1% of GDP |
| 2000 | 41.7% of GDP |
| 2001 | 33.4% of GDP |
| 2002 | 31.3% of GDP |
| 2003 | 37.0% of GDP |
| 2004 | 42.6% of GDP |
| 2005 | 48.9% of GDP |
| 2006 | 49.7% of GDP |
| 2007 | 47.4% of GDP |
| 2008 | 54.1% of GDP |
| 2009 | 34.6% of GDP |
| 2010 | 37.9% of GDP |
| 2011 | 49.2% of GDP |
| 2012 | 47.4% of GDP |
| 2013 | 44.5% of GDP |
| 2014 | 40.3% of GDP |
| 2015 | 24.0% of GDP |
| 2016 | 20.0% of GDP |
| 2017 | 23.6% of GDP |
| 2018 | 28.1% of GDP |
| 2019 | 24.3% of GDP |
| 2020 | 16.0% of GDP |
| 2021 | 23.7% of GDP |
Real GDP growth
IMF World Economic Outlook: actual years only.
Source:IMF
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| Period | GDP growth |
|---|---|
| 1995 | 0.3% |
| 1996 | 3.3% |
| 1997 | 2.6% |
| 1998 | 2.8% |
| 1999 | −0.6% |
| 2000 | 4.7% |
| 2001 | 0.3% |
| 2002 | −0.7% |
| 2003 | 8.8% |
| 2004 | 8.6% |
| 2005 | 5.9% |
| 2006 | 3.3% |
| 2007 | 2.2% |
| 2008 | 6.2% |
| 2009 | −1.1% |
| 2010 | 5.0% |
| 2011 | 11.8% |
| 2012 | 5.8% |
| 2013 | 2.9% |
| 2014 | 4.0% |
| 2015 | 4.7% |
| 2016 | 1.7% |
| 2017 | 1.2% |
| 2018 | 3.2% |
| 2019 | 1.7% |
| 2020 | −3.8% |
| 2021 | 6.5% |
| 2022 | 12.0% |
| 2023 | 0.5% |
| 2024 | 2.6% |
| 2025 | 4.6% |
2. State revenue
VAT has raised tax revenue, but property income, tied to oil, remains the state’s first resource and drives its total.
Central-government revenue, by nature
Billions of riyals. Property income: natural-resource rents and dividends. Total 2023: 1,250bn riyals.
- Other revenue
- Property income
- Taxes
Source:IMF (via DBnomics)
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| Period | Taxes | Property income | Other revenue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 263bn riyals | 590bn riyals | 64bn riyals |
| 2019 | 220bn riyals | 634bn riyals | 78bn riyals |
| 2020 | 227bn riyals | 501bn riyals | 62bn riyals |
| 2021 | 317bn riyals | 590bn riyals | 86bn riyals |
| 2022 | 323bn riyals | 894bn riyals | 88bn riyals |
| 2023 | 357bn riyals | 800bn riyals | 93bn riyals |
3. Exports and foreign investment
Diversifying also means exporting something other than oil and attracting foreign capital. Both indicators move little.
Fuels, share of merchandise exports
Crude oil, refined products and gas (World Bank, from United Nations trade statistics).
Source:World Bank
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| Period | Fuels |
|---|---|
| 1991 | 94.1% |
| 1992 | 88.1% |
| 1993 | 92.0% |
| 1994 | 90.8% |
| 1995 | 87.6% |
| 1996 | 89.5% |
| 1998 | 85.3% |
| 1999 | 89.4% |
| 2000 | 92.3% |
| 2001 | 89.5% |
| 2002 | 89.6% |
| 2003 | 89.7% |
| 2004 | 89.8% |
| 2005 | 91.0% |
| 2006 | 91.0% |
| 2007 | 90.2% |
| 2008 | 91.4% |
| 2009 | 87.8% |
| 2010 | 87.6% |
| 2011 | 88.7% |
| 2012 | 88.6% |
| 2013 | 87.6% |
| 2014 | 85.2% |
| 2015 | 78.4% |
| 2016 | 77.5% |
| 2017 | 79.8% |
| 2018 | 81.0% |
| 2019 | 80.1% |
| 2020 | 72.6% |
| 2021 | 76.6% |
| 2022 | 82.2% |
| 2023 | 81.3% |
| 2024 | 79.4% |
| 2025 | 78.7% |
Foreign direct investment, net inflows
Share of GDP. Peak over the period: 3.2% of GDP in 2016.
Source:World Bank
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| Period | Foreign direct investment |
|---|---|
| 1995 | −1.3% of GDP |
| 1996 | −0.7% of GDP |
| 1997 | 1.8% of GDP |
| 1998 | 2.9% of GDP |
| 1999 | −0.5% of GDP |
| 2000 | −1.0% of GDP |
| 2001 | 0.0% of GDP |
| 2002 | −0.3% of GDP |
| 2003 | −0.3% of GDP |
| 2004 | −0.1% of GDP |
| 2005 | 1.3% of GDP |
| 2006 | 1.6% of GDP |
| 2007 | 1.5% of GDP |
| 2008 | 1.1% of GDP |
| 2009 | 0.1% of GDP |
| 2010 | 0.9% of GDP |
| 2011 | 0.7% of GDP |
| 2012 | 0.7% of GDP |
| 2013 | 0.4% of GDP |
| 2014 | 0.2% of GDP |
| 2015 | 0.6% of GDP |
| 2016 | 3.2% of GDP |
| 2017 | 0.1% of GDP |
| 2018 | 1.4% of GDP |
| 2019 | 0.3% of GDP |
| 2020 | 0.2% of GDP |
| 2021 | 2.9% of GDP |
| 2022 | 2.2% of GDP |
| 2023 | 1.9% of GDP |
| 2024 | 1.7% of GDP |
| 2025 | 2.6% of GDP |
What we know, what we don’t
What the figures establish
- Manufacturing’s share of GDP has grown since Vision 2030 was launched.
- Fuels still make up most merchandise exports.
- State revenue still depends first on oil income, despite higher taxes.
What they don’t tell
- The real extent of the revisions to NEOM and the other giga-projects: no public series measures them.
- The non-oil share of GDP according to GASTAT, not read here for lack of access to its data.
- The specific effect of Vision 2030: these series do not separate the effect of the plan from that of the oil price.
Sources
Series downloaded from their producers on Nov 12, 2026, the snapshot date. Only published periods are used: no projection.
- IMF World Economic Outlook (actual years only): real GDP growth
- IMF (via DBnomics) Government Finance Statistics, central government revenue (IMF/GFSR)
- World Bank Oil rents, % of GDP (NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS)
- World Bank Industry, manufacturing and services value added, % of GDP (NV.IND.TOTL.ZS, NV.IND.MANF.ZS, NV.SRV.TOTL.ZS)
- World Bank Fuel exports, % of merchandise exports (TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN)
- World Bank Foreign direct investment, net inflows, % of GDP (BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS)