Citoyen
  • Home
  • Feed
  • Countries
  • Categories
  • Comparison
  • Rankings
  • Briefings
  • Deep dives
  • Reform tracker
  • Calendar
  • Sources
  • About
  1. Turkey
  2. ›
  3. Purchasing power & prices

Disinflation, Turkish style: how far has the way out of the crisis gone?

After years of low rates despite soaring prices, Türkiye’s central bank changed course in 2023 and raised its policy rate sharply. Inflation has fallen since its 2024 peak, but remains among the highest of the large economies. Prices, rates, the lira, growth: where Türkiye stands.

Citoyen·Data as of Nov 12, 2026

Scope: Türkiye: harmonised index of consumer prices (monthly, compiled by the Turkish statistical institute and published by Eurostat), policy rate and lira exchange rate (monthly, Bank for International Settlements), growth and current account (annual, IMF), to the latest data published.

This dossier is updated at least once a quarter with the new figures. Follow it to get a notification at each update.

Key points

Inflation over a year29.7%Sep. 2026, against 75.5% at the May 2024 peak
Policy rate36.0%Oct. 2026, against 50.0% at its highest
Real interest rate7.3 ptpolicy rate minus inflation, Sep. 2026
Turkish lira per dollar49.47 liraOct. 2026 average, against 41.86 lira a year earlier
  • Inflation has been more than halved, but remains very high. Prices rose 29.7% over a year in Sep. 2026, against 75.5% at the May 2024 peak, 45.8 pt lower; a year earlier inflation was 33.3%.
  • The monetary U-turn. The policy rate, cut to 8.5% in Feb. 2023, a few months after inflation peaked at 85.4% (Oct. 2022), was raised to 50.0% in Mar. 2024. It has come back down to 36.0% in Oct. 2026.
  • Real rates are positive again. The policy rate minus inflation, which fell to −75.4 pt in Nov. 2022, has been positive since Sep. 2024 and reaches 7.3 pt in Sep. 2026.
  • Services hold out. Service prices still rise 37.6% in Sep. 2026, against 28.0% for food and 28.7% excluding energy and food.
  • The lira keeps sliding. It took 49.47 lira to buy a dollar in Oct. 2026, 18% more than a year earlier and 6.7 times as many as in Jan. 2021 (7.40 lira).
How to read these figures

Inflation is measured here by Türkiye’s harmonised index of consumer prices, compiled by the Turkish statistical institute (TÜİK) under European rules and published by Eurostat; it is very close to the national index. The components follow the new European classification of consumption, applied in 2026 to the whole history.

The policy rate is the central bank’s one-week repo rate, at the end of the month. The real rate is a simple approximation here: the policy rate minus inflation over the past twelve months. The lira rate is the monthly average number of lira per dollar: a rise means the lira loses value. Growth and the current account are the IMF’s observed annual figures, with no forecast.

1. Inflation halved

Turkish inflation had two peaks, at the end of 2022 and in spring 2024. Since then it has been falling slowly, but every component remains well above pre-2021 levels.

Inflation in Türkiye, change in prices over a year

Harmonised index of consumer prices, all items.

Source:Eurostat (TÜİK)

Show the chart data
PeriodInflation
Jan. 201810.3%
Feb. 201810.3%
Mar. 201810.2%
Apr. 201810.9%
May 201812.1%
Jun. 201815.4%
Jul. 201815.8%
Aug. 201817.9%
Sep. 201824.6%
Oct. 201825.3%
Nov. 201821.7%
Dec. 201820.4%
Jan. 201920.3%
Feb. 201919.6%
Mar. 201919.7%
Apr. 201919.5%
May 201918.8%
Jun. 201915.7%
Jul. 201916.7%
Aug. 201915.0%
Sep. 20199.2%
Oct. 20198.6%
Nov. 201910.6%
Dec. 201911.8%
Jan. 202012.2%
Feb. 202012.4%
Mar. 202011.9%
Apr. 202010.9%
May 202011.4%
Jun. 202012.6%
Jul. 202011.8%
Aug. 202011.8%
Sep. 202011.8%
Oct. 202011.9%
Nov. 202014.1%
Dec. 202014.6%
Jan. 202115.0%
Feb. 202115.6%
Mar. 202116.2%
Apr. 202117.2%
May 202116.5%
Jun. 202117.5%
Jul. 202118.9%
Aug. 202119.2%
Sep. 202119.6%
Oct. 202119.9%
Nov. 202121.3%
Dec. 202136.1%
Jan. 202248.7%
Feb. 202254.5%
Mar. 202261.2%
Apr. 202270.0%
May 202273.5%
Jun. 202278.6%
Jul. 202279.5%
Aug. 202280.2%
Sep. 202283.4%
Oct. 202285.4%
Nov. 202284.4%
Dec. 202264.2%
Jan. 202357.7%
Feb. 202355.3%
Mar. 202350.5%
Apr. 202343.7%
May 202339.7%
Jun. 202338.3%
Jul. 202348.0%
Aug. 202359.1%
Sep. 202361.7%
Oct. 202361.5%
Nov. 202362.1%
Dec. 202364.9%
Jan. 202464.9%
Feb. 202467.1%
Mar. 202468.6%
Apr. 202469.8%
May 202475.5%
Jun. 202471.6%
Jul. 202461.8%
Aug. 202452.0%
Sep. 202449.5%
Oct. 202448.7%
Nov. 202447.1%
Dec. 202444.4%
Jan. 202542.2%
Feb. 202539.1%
Mar. 202538.1%
Apr. 202537.9%
May 202535.4%
Jun. 202535.1%
Jul. 202533.5%
Aug. 202533.0%
Sep. 202533.3%
Oct. 202532.9%
Nov. 202531.1%
Dec. 202530.9%
Jan. 202630.7%
Feb. 202631.5%
Mar. 202630.9%
Apr. 202632.4%
May 202632.6%
Jun. 202632.1%
Jul. 202631.8%
Aug. 202631.5%
Sep. 202629.7%

Inflation by main component

Food (including alcoholic drinks and tobacco), energy, services, and inflation excluding energy and food.

  • Excluding energy and food
  • Services
  • Energy
  • Food

Source:Eurostat (TÜİK)

Show the chart data
PeriodFoodEnergyServicesExcluding energy and food
Jan. 202114.7%6.2%11.7%16.6%
Feb. 202115.4%7.3%11.8%17.1%
Mar. 202114.7%11.4%12.6%17.6%
Apr. 202114.6%18.1%13.2%18.2%
May 202114.5%17.1%13.7%17.5%
Jun. 202116.7%17.1%13.6%18.0%
Jul. 202120.6%22.9%13.9%17.5%
Aug. 202123.8%22.3%14.0%16.4%
Sep. 202123.9%23.7%15.1%16.9%
Oct. 202124.0%27.6%15.5%16.7%
Nov. 202123.9%35.4%17.0%17.8%
Dec. 202140.0%48.8%22.6%32.0%
Jan. 202254.2%89.5%29.7%39.4%
Feb. 202261.6%97.2%33.2%44.0%
Mar. 202267.5%121.1%37.1%48.5%
Apr. 202284.0%135.8%42.6%52.9%
May 202287.8%137.2%46.1%56.6%
Jun. 202290.3%172.9%48.9%57.9%
Jul. 202292.7%142.9%51.8%62.4%
Aug. 202289.0%133.0%54.7%66.8%
Sep. 202291.3%146.8%58.2%68.7%
Oct. 202295.7%137.3%60.7%71.3%
Nov. 202299.7%123.6%61.2%69.7%
Dec. 202276.0%91.8%55.8%53.5%
Jan. 202367.7%47.2%63.0%54.7%
Feb. 202366.5%42.3%62.2%52.2%
Mar. 202364.6%27.0%60.4%48.8%
Apr. 202352.0%13.1%59.1%46.5%
May 202349.7%−18.1%60.5%47.3%
Jun. 202352.3%−27.1%60.1%47.9%
Jul. 202358.9%−12.6%70.5%56.7%
Aug. 202370.4%5.1%80.2%65.2%
Sep. 202374.4%1.2%87.1%69.1%
Oct. 202371.0%2.0%89.4%69.9%
Nov. 202368.0%13.1%90.4%70.0%
Dec. 202372.3%21.1%91.4%70.2%
Jan. 202469.1%28.9%90.2%69.7%
Feb. 202470.5%32.2%94.9%72.1%
Mar. 202469.8%33.9%97.0%74.4%
Apr. 202469.9%40.6%97.5%74.9%
May 202472.2%100.9%96.6%74.1%
Jun. 202468.3%89.6%95.8%71.2%
Jul. 202459.3%83.8%86.0%60.1%
Aug. 202447.0%70.7%78.3%51.6%
Sep. 202445.1%65.2%73.4%49.3%
Oct. 202446.3%63.5%70.3%47.6%
Nov. 202447.4%47.4%68.5%46.9%
Dec. 202443.0%44.7%66.3%45.0%
Jan. 202540.8%39.7%63.4%43.1%
Feb. 202534.9%40.3%60.2%40.9%
Mar. 202538.3%37.6%56.6%38.1%
Apr. 202535.8%44.8%54.9%37.8%
May 202532.2%37.8%51.3%36.5%
Jun. 202529.9%40.8%50.5%36.5%
Jul. 202527.8%38.0%48.6%35.6%
Aug. 202532.7%28.7%45.9%33.8%
Sep. 202534.4%29.9%44.7%33.3%
Oct. 202533.9%29.4%44.5%33.0%
Nov. 202527.8%30.8%44.2%32.6%
Dec. 202528.6%29.5%43.9%32.1%
Jan. 202631.8%28.3%40.2%30.4%
Feb. 202636.7%26.1%39.6%30.0%
Mar. 202632.2%33.2%40.2%30.1%
Apr. 202634.2%46.7%40.3%30.3%
May 202634.5%45.1%41.1%30.6%
Jun. 202635.5%41.4%39.7%29.8%
Jul. 202636.7%33.0%39.7%29.8%
Aug. 202633.3%40.2%40.3%30.1%
Sep. 202628.0%47.6%37.6%28.7%

2. The central bank’s U-turn

Until spring 2023 the central bank cut rates despite inflation. From June 2023 it raised them in steps, until the real rate turned positive, before starting to lower them.

Policy rate and inflation

Policy rate at end of month (Bank for International Settlements); inflation over a year (Eurostat).

  • Inflation
  • Policy rate

Source:Bank for International Settlements (Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye)·Eurostat (TÜİK)

Show the chart data
PeriodPolicy rateInflation
Jan. 20188.0%10.3%
Feb. 20188.0%10.3%
Mar. 20188.0%10.2%
Apr. 20188.0%10.9%
May 20188.0%12.1%
Jun. 201817.8%15.4%
Jul. 201817.8%15.8%
Aug. 201817.8%17.9%
Sep. 201824.0%24.6%
Oct. 201824.0%25.3%
Nov. 201824.0%21.7%
Dec. 201824.0%20.4%
Jan. 201924.0%20.3%
Feb. 201924.0%19.6%
Mar. 201924.0%19.7%
Apr. 201924.0%19.5%
May 201924.0%18.8%
Jun. 201924.0%15.7%
Jul. 201919.8%16.7%
Aug. 201919.8%15.0%
Sep. 201916.5%9.2%
Oct. 201914.0%8.6%
Nov. 201914.0%10.6%
Dec. 201912.0%11.8%
Jan. 202011.3%12.2%
Feb. 202010.8%12.4%
Mar. 20209.8%11.9%
Apr. 20208.8%10.9%
May 20208.3%11.4%
Jun. 20208.3%12.6%
Jul. 20208.3%11.8%
Aug. 20208.3%11.8%
Sep. 202010.3%11.8%
Oct. 202010.3%11.9%
Nov. 202015.0%14.1%
Dec. 202017.0%14.6%
Jan. 202117.0%15.0%
Feb. 202117.0%15.6%
Mar. 202119.0%16.2%
Apr. 202119.0%17.2%
May 202119.0%16.5%
Jun. 202119.0%17.5%
Jul. 202119.0%18.9%
Aug. 202119.0%19.2%
Sep. 202118.0%19.6%
Oct. 202116.0%19.9%
Nov. 202115.0%21.3%
Dec. 202114.0%36.1%
Jan. 202214.0%48.7%
Feb. 202214.0%54.5%
Mar. 202214.0%61.2%
Apr. 202214.0%70.0%
May 202214.0%73.5%
Jun. 202214.0%78.6%
Jul. 202214.0%79.5%
Aug. 202213.0%80.2%
Sep. 202212.0%83.4%
Oct. 202210.5%85.4%
Nov. 20229.0%84.4%
Dec. 20229.0%64.2%
Jan. 20239.0%57.7%
Feb. 20238.5%55.3%
Mar. 20238.5%50.5%
Apr. 20238.5%43.7%
May 20238.5%39.7%
Jun. 202315.0%38.3%
Jul. 202317.5%48.0%
Aug. 202325.0%59.1%
Sep. 202330.0%61.7%
Oct. 202335.0%61.5%
Nov. 202340.0%62.1%
Dec. 202342.5%64.9%
Jan. 202445.0%64.9%
Feb. 202445.0%67.1%
Mar. 202450.0%68.6%
Apr. 202450.0%69.8%
May 202450.0%75.5%
Jun. 202450.0%71.6%
Jul. 202450.0%61.8%
Aug. 202450.0%52.0%
Sep. 202450.0%49.5%
Oct. 202450.0%48.7%
Nov. 202450.0%47.1%
Dec. 202447.5%44.4%
Jan. 202545.0%42.2%
Feb. 202545.0%39.1%
Mar. 202542.5%38.1%
Apr. 202546.0%37.9%
May 202546.0%35.4%
Jun. 202546.0%35.1%
Jul. 202543.0%33.5%
Aug. 202543.0%33.0%
Sep. 202540.5%33.3%
Oct. 202539.5%32.9%
Nov. 202539.5%31.1%
Dec. 202538.0%30.9%
Jan. 202637.0%30.7%
Feb. 202637.0%31.5%
Mar. 202637.0%30.9%
Apr. 202637.0%32.4%
May 202637.0%32.6%
Jun. 202637.0%32.1%
Jul. 202637.0%31.8%
Aug. 202637.0%31.5%
Sep. 202637.0%29.7%
Oct. 202636.0%–

Real interest rate

Policy rate minus inflation over a year, in points. Above zero, the rate exceeds the rise in prices.

Source:Bank for International Settlements (Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye)·Eurostat (TÜİK)

Show the chart data
PeriodReal rate
Jan. 20212.0 pt
Feb. 20211.4 pt
Mar. 20212.8 pt
Apr. 20211.8 pt
May 20212.5 pt
Jun. 20211.5 pt
Jul. 20210.1 pt
Aug. 2021−0.2 pt
Sep. 2021−1.6 pt
Oct. 2021−3.9 pt
Nov. 2021−6.3 pt
Dec. 2021−22.1 pt
Jan. 2022−34.7 pt
Feb. 2022−40.5 pt
Mar. 2022−47.2 pt
Apr. 2022−56.0 pt
May 2022−59.5 pt
Jun. 2022−64.6 pt
Jul. 2022−65.5 pt
Aug. 2022−67.2 pt
Sep. 2022−71.4 pt
Oct. 2022−74.9 pt
Nov. 2022−75.4 pt
Dec. 2022−55.2 pt
Jan. 2023−48.7 pt
Feb. 2023−46.8 pt
Mar. 2023−42.0 pt
Apr. 2023−35.2 pt
May 2023−31.2 pt
Jun. 2023−23.3 pt
Jul. 2023−30.5 pt
Aug. 2023−34.1 pt
Sep. 2023−31.7 pt
Oct. 2023−26.5 pt
Nov. 2023−22.1 pt
Dec. 2023−22.4 pt
Jan. 2024−19.9 pt
Feb. 2024−22.1 pt
Mar. 2024−18.6 pt
Apr. 2024−19.8 pt
May 2024−25.5 pt
Jun. 2024−21.6 pt
Jul. 2024−11.8 pt
Aug. 2024−2.0 pt
Sep. 20240.5 pt
Oct. 20241.3 pt
Nov. 20242.9 pt
Dec. 20243.1 pt
Jan. 20252.8 pt
Feb. 20255.9 pt
Mar. 20254.4 pt
Apr. 20258.1 pt
May 202510.6 pt
Jun. 202510.9 pt
Jul. 20259.5 pt
Aug. 202510.0 pt
Sep. 20257.2 pt
Oct. 20256.6 pt
Nov. 20258.4 pt
Dec. 20257.1 pt
Jan. 20266.3 pt
Feb. 20265.5 pt
Mar. 20266.1 pt
Apr. 20264.6 pt
May 20264.4 pt
Jun. 20264.9 pt
Jul. 20265.2 pt
Aug. 20265.5 pt
Sep. 20267.3 pt

3. The lira and the economy

The lira has lost most of its value against the dollar since 2021; its fall has slowed since the policy change. Growth held up and the current account deficit narrowed.

Turkish lira per dollar

Monthly average. A rise means the lira depreciates.

Source:Bank for International Settlements

Show the chart data
PeriodLira per dollar
Jan. 20183.77 lira
Feb. 20183.78 lira
Mar. 20183.89 lira
Apr. 20184.07 lira
May 20184.45 lira
Jun. 20184.63 lira
Jul. 20184.77 lira
Aug. 20185.93 lira
Sep. 20186.33 lira
Oct. 20185.83 lira
Nov. 20185.36 lira
Dec. 20185.33 lira
Jan. 20195.38 lira
Feb. 20195.28 lira
Mar. 20195.48 lira
Apr. 20195.76 lira
May 20196.05 lira
Jun. 20195.81 lira
Jul. 20195.66 lira
Aug. 20195.65 lira
Sep. 20195.70 lira
Oct. 20195.79 lira
Nov. 20195.74 lira
Dec. 20195.85 lira
Jan. 20205.93 lira
Feb. 20206.07 lira
Mar. 20206.35 lira
Apr. 20206.87 lira
May 20206.93 lira
Jun. 20206.82 lira
Jul. 20206.88 lira
Aug. 20207.28 lira
Sep. 20207.56 lira
Oct. 20207.96 lira
Nov. 20207.99 lira
Dec. 20207.71 lira
Jan. 20217.40 lira
Feb. 20217.09 lira
Mar. 20217.68 lira
Apr. 20218.18 lira
May 20218.39 lira
Jun. 20218.62 lira
Jul. 20218.59 lira
Aug. 20218.48 lira
Sep. 20218.56 lira
Oct. 20219.21 lira
Nov. 202110.73 lira
Dec. 202113.63 lira
Jan. 202213.57 lira
Feb. 202213.66 lira
Mar. 202214.63 lira
Apr. 202214.73 lira
May 202215.63 lira
Jun. 202217.00 lira
Jul. 202217.48 lira
Aug. 202218.04 lira
Sep. 202218.32 lira
Oct. 202218.59 lira
Nov. 202218.61 lira
Dec. 202218.66 lira
Jan. 202318.79 lira
Feb. 202318.85 lira
Mar. 202319.01 lira
Apr. 202319.35 lira
May 202319.78 lira
Jun. 202323.76 lira
Jul. 202326.51 lira
Aug. 202326.93 lira
Sep. 202327.02 lira
Oct. 202327.88 lira
Nov. 202328.66 lira
Dec. 202329.10 lira
Jan. 202430.09 lira
Feb. 202430.82 lira
Mar. 202432.03 lira
Apr. 202432.34 lira
May 202432.24 lira
Jun. 202432.59 lira
Jul. 202432.92 lira
Aug. 202433.70 lira
Sep. 202434.06 lira
Oct. 202434.25 lira
Nov. 202434.45 lira
Dec. 202434.99 lira
Jan. 202535.55 lira
Feb. 202536.20 lira
Mar. 202537.17 lira
Apr. 202538.14 lira
May 202538.83 lira
Jun. 202539.45 lira
Jul. 202540.24 lira
Aug. 202540.84 lira
Sep. 202541.33 lira
Oct. 202541.86 lira
Nov. 202542.29 lira
Dec. 202542.68 lira
Jan. 202643.23 lira
Feb. 202643.71 lira
Mar. 202644.21 lira
Apr. 202644.80 lira
May 202645.54 lira
Jun. 202646.29 lira
Jul. 202647.09 lira
Aug. 202647.88 lira
Sep. 202648.65 lira
Oct. 202649.47 lira

GDP growth

Annual change in real GDP, observed years (IMF). Latest year: 2025, 3.7%.

Source:International Monetary Fund

Show the chart data
PeriodGDP growth
20059.1%
20067.1%
20075.1%
20080.9%
2009−4.9%
20108.5%
201111.0%
20124.8%
20138.5%
20144.6%
20155.8%
20163.3%
20177.8%
20183.5%
20191.3%
20201.8%
202111.8%
20225.4%
20235.0%
20243.5%
20253.7%

Current account balance

% of GDP, observed years (IMF). Negative: Türkiye spends more abroad than it receives.

Source:International Monetary Fund

Show the chart data
PeriodCurrent account
2005−4.1% of GDP
2006−5.6% of GDP
2007−5.4% of GDP
2008−5.0% of GDP
2009−1.7% of GDP
2010−5.7% of GDP
2011−8.8% of GDP
2012−4.7% of GDP
2013−5.1% of GDP
2014−3.4% of GDP
2015−2.5% of GDP
2016−2.5% of GDP
2017−4.1% of GDP
2018−1.8% of GDP
20191.9% of GDP
2020−4.2% of GDP
2021−0.9% of GDP
2022−5.0% of GDP
2023−3.6% of GDP
2024−1.0% of GDP
2025−1.9% of GDP

What we know, what we don’t

What the figures establish

  • Inflation has been more than halved since the 2024 peak, but remains very high.
  • The real interest rate turned positive again in 2024, after years deeply negative.
  • The lira keeps depreciating against the dollar, more slowly than in 2021-2023.

What they don’t tell

  • When inflation might return towards the central bank’s target: these series only cover the past.
  • The effect of the rate rises on their own, separated from those of the exchange rate, wages and energy prices.
  • Households’ and businesses’ inflation expectations, which this dossier does not read (the central bank series requires a key).

Stay up to date

This dossier is updated at least once a quarter with the new figures. Follow it to get a notification at each update.

Sources

Series downloaded from their producers on Nov 12, 2026, the snapshot date. Only published periods are used: no projection.

  • Bank for International Settlements US dollar exchange rates: Turkish lira per US dollar, monthly average (WS_XRU)
  • Bank for International Settlements (Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye) Central bank policy rate, Türkiye (WS_CBPOL)
  • Eurostat (TÜİK) Harmonised index of consumer prices, Türkiye, annual rate of change (prc_hicp_minr)
  • International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook: real GDP growth, current account balance (actual years)