Where do the US deficit and debt come from?

Revenue and spending of the US federal government since 1960: health, retirement, tax cuts and the snowball effect of interest.

Scope: Federal government, BEA national accounts, calendar years. States and localities only appear through the federal grants they receive (Medicaid in particular). · Data as of Oct 27, 2026.

Federal spending · 2025$7,674bn24.9% of GDP
Federal revenue · 2025$5,742bn18.6% of GDP
Deficit · 2025−$1,932bn−6.3% of GDP
Debt held by the public · end of 2025$30,661bn99.4% of GDP

Key takeaways

  • In 2025 the federal government spent $7,674bn against $5,742bn of revenue: a deficit of $1,932bn, or 6.3% of GDP. Debt held by the public reached $30,661bn at the end of 2025, 99% of GDP, against 35% in 2007.
  • Health is the main driver, far more than in France. Medicare and the federal share of Medicaid gained +3.7 points of GDP since 2000, retirement +1.2 points.
  • Revenue did not keep up: −1.8 points of GDP since 2000, with the 2001-2003 and 2017 tax cuts (corporate income tax in particular). In 2000 the federal government ran a surplus.
  • Interest has become a driver of its own: with debt tripling as a share of GDP and higher rates, it gained +1.3 points of GDP since 2019. That is the snowball effect.
  • Customs duties bring in much more in 2025: 0.9% of GDP, against 0.2 to 0.4% before. With income tax, they account for most of the recent rise in revenue.

Revenue and spending, year by year

For each year: left bar = revenue (grey), right bar = spending (colours), stacked by type. The gap between the two bars is the deficit. Tap an item in the legend to isolate it.

Unit
Since
Spending
Revenue

What widened (or narrowed) the deficit

Change of each item in points of GDP between two years. Spending that rises, or revenue that falls, widens the deficit (bar to the left).

Compare

Public balance: 1.5% of GDP in 2000, −6.3% in 2025, a change of −7.8 points. Contribution of spending: −5.9 pt; of revenue: −1.8 pt.

  • Retirement
  • Health
  • Other social benefits
  • Interest on debt
  • Defense
  • Education
  • Other functions
  • Investment and capital (net)
  • Revenue
← widens the deficitnarrows it →
Detail by item · 2000 → 2025
Detail by itemSide20002025Change (pt)Effect on balance (pt)
Health (Medicare, federal share of Medicaid…)Spending3.817.52+3.70−3.70
Retirement (Social Security, federal pensions)Spending3.534.71+1.18−1.18
Personal current taxesRevenue9.758.79−0.97−0.97
Interest on debtSpending3.453.95+0.50−0.50
Contributions for social insurance (payroll taxes)Revenue6.816.34−0.47−0.47
Taxes on corporate incomeRevenue1.891.45−0.45−0.45
Other benefits (disability, welfare, unemployment, tax credits…)Spending2.442.83+0.39−0.39
Other revenue (income on assets incl. the Fed, transfers, estate tax…)Revenue1.130.82−0.31−0.31
Excise and other taxes on productionRevenue0.650.34−0.31−0.31
Investment and capital transfers (net)Spending0.340.63+0.29−0.29
EducationSpending0.390.44+0.05−0.05
Other functions (administration, justice, transportation, housing…)Spending1.961.89−0.08+0.08
DefenseSpending3.022.90−0.12+0.12
Customs dutiesRevenue0.210.87+0.66+0.66
Total revenueRevenue20.4518.60−1.84−1.84
Total spendingSpending18.9524.87+5.91−5.91
BalanceBalance1.49-6.26−7.75−7.75

The drivers

Health and retirement

Federal spending on health (Medicare, federal share of Medicaid, ACA subsidies…) and retirement (Social Security, federal employee pensions), % of GDP.

  • Health · 7.5% (2025)
  • Retirement · 4.7% (2025)

The demographic driver

Share of people aged 65 and over (%), World Bank.

  • Aged 65+ · 18.4% (2025)

Federal balance

% of GDP. Negative = deficit. The 2020 spike reflects the Covid relief packages.

  • Balance · −6.3% (2025)

Debt held by the public

% of GDP, end of year. Treasury securities held outside the federal government (Fed included).

  • Debt · 99.4% (2025)

Interest and defense

% of GDP. BEA interest includes imputed interest on federal employee pensions.

  • Interest · 4.0% (2025)
  • Defense · 2.9% (2025)

Social Security and Medicare

The two big federal programmes for seniors, benefits paid, % of GDP.

  • Social Security · 5.1% (2025)
  • Medicare · 3.9% (2025)

Yearly data

Show the table of revenue, spending, balance and debt by year
YearRevenueSpendingBalanceBalance (% of GDP)Debt (% of GDP)
2025$5,742bn$7,674bn−$1,932bn−6.3%99.4%
2024$5,199bn$7,320bn−$2,122bn−7.2%97.7%
2023$4,865bn$6,863bn−$1,998bn−7.2%96.3%
2022$5,149bn$6,309bn−$1,160bn−4.5%93.8%
2021$4,457bn$7,470bn−$3,013bn−12.7%97.4%
2020$3,786bn$6,861bn−$3,075bn−14.4%101.1%
2019$3,721bn$4,875bn−$1,154bn−5.4%79.5%
2018$3,606bn$4,593bn−$987bn−4.8%77.8%
2017$3,760bn$4,338bn−$577bn−2.9%75.4%
2016$3,481bn$4,201bn−$720bn−3.8%76.6%
2015$3,469bn$4,054bn−$585bn−3.2%74.6%
2014$3,313bn$3,965bn−$652bn−3.7%73.8%
2013$3,157bn$3,858bn−$701bn−4.2%73.0%
2012$2,715bn$3,902bn−$1,187bn−7.3%71.2%
2011$2,583bn$3,979bn−$1,396bn−8.9%66.8%
2010$2,461bn$3,965bn−$1,504bn−10.0%62.2%
2009$2,263bn$3,738bn−$1,475bn−10.2%53.7%
2008$2,610bn$3,384bn−$774bn−5.2%42.9%
2007$2,695bn$3,048bn−$353bn−2.4%35.2%
2006$2,567bn$2,858bn−$291bn−2.1%35.2%
2005$2,330bn$2,726bn−$396bn−3.0%35.9%
2004$2,053bn$2,520bn−$468bn−3.8%35.8%
2003$1,918bn$2,385bn−$467bn−4.1%35.0%
2002$1,896bn$2,207bn−$311bn−2.8%33.0%
2001$2,060bn$2,059bn$1bn0.0%31.7%
2000$2,096bn$1,943bn$153bn1.5%32.8%
1999$1,935bn$1,871bn$64bn0.7%37.9%
1998$1,815bn$1,804bn$11bn0.1%41.1%
1997$1,688bn$1,769bn−$81bn−0.9%44.0%
1996$1,554bn$1,736bn−$182bn−2.3%46.5%
1995$1,432bn$1,674bn−$241bn−3.2%47.2%
1994$1,344bn$1,606bn−$262bn−3.6%47.6%
1993$1,244bn$1,573bn−$329bn−4.8%48.3%
1992$1,166bn$1,525bn−$359bn−5.5%47.0%
1991$1,119bn$1,400bn−$281bn−4.6%44.8%
1990$1,099bn$1,343bn−$244bn−4.1%41.4%
1989$1,051bn$1,246bn−$194bn−3.4%39.5%
1988$970bn$1,171bn−$201bn−3.8%39.8%
1987$907bn$1,126bn−$220bn−4.5%40.1%
1986$825bn$1,089bn−$264bn−5.8%39.4%
1985$782bn$1,029bn−$247bn−5.7%36.6%
1984$717bn$947bn−$229bn−5.7%33.7%
1983$651bn$884bn−$233bn−6.4%32.0%
1982$626bn$812bn−$185bn−5.5%29.3%
1981$628bn$732bn−$104bn−3.3%25.4%
1980$540bn$645bn−$105bn−3.7%25.5%
1979$493bn$553bn−$61bn−2.3%24.8%
1978$429bn$502bn−$73bn−3.1%26.1%
1977$371bn$451bn−$80bn−3.8%26.9%
1976$328bn$415bn−$87bn−4.6%26.9%
1975$282bn$385bn−$103bn−6.1%25.8%
1974$283bn$322bn−$39bn−2.5%22.6%
1973$254bn$290bn−$35bn−2.5%23.6%
1972$224bn$273bn−$48bn−3.8%25.8%
1971$195bn$246bn−$51bn−4.3%27.1%
1970$189bn$228bn−$39bn−3.6%27.0%
1969$195bn$208bn−$12bn−1.2%27.2%
1968$174bn$196bn−$23bn−2.4%29.5%
1967$149bn$179bn−$30bn−3.5%31.2%
1966$140bn$158bn−$18bn−2.2%31.8%
1965$123bn$137bn−$14bn−1.9%34.6%
1964$114bn$131bn−$17bn−2.5%37.4%
1963$114bn$126bn−$12bn−1.9%39.3%
1962$105bn$122bn−$16bn−2.7%40.9%
1961$97bn$112bn−$15bn−2.6%42.8%
1960$95bn$103bn−$8bn−1.5%43.1%

Sources and method

  • BEA, national accounts (NIPA). Table 3.2 (federal government receipts and expenditures, net borrowing), table 3.16 (current expenditures by function, federal part), table 3.12 (Social Security, Medicare), tables 1.1.5 and 1.1.9 (GDP and deflator). Revision of 30 September 2026, read through DBnomics.BEA NIPADBnomics
  • Federal Reserve, Financial Accounts Z.1. Series FL313161100: Treasury securities held outside the federal government, excluding savings bonds. Very close to the Treasury’s “debt held by the public”, at the end of the calendar year.Z.1 L.106
  • World Bank. Share of people aged 65 and over.SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS
  • Method. National accounts and calendar years: figures differ slightly from the federal budget (fiscal year October–September) published by CBO and OMB. BEA interest (~4% of GDP in 2025) is higher than the budget’s “net interest” (~3.2%) because it includes imputed interest on federal employee pensions. The deficit is net borrowing, which includes investment and capital transfers. Constant dollars: GDP deflator.
  • Further reading. CBO (historical data and projections), OMB Historical Tables, Treasury Fiscal Data, Social Security and Medicare Trustees report.CBOOMB Historical TablesFiscal DataSocial Security & Medicare Trustees