United States: tariffs and the cost of living, the issue of the midterms
The cost of living dominated the 3 November 2026 midterm elections, which gave both chambers of Congress to the Democrats. What the federal government has collected in customs duties since 2025, what it has refunded, and what prices and wages did.
Citoyen
Scope: United States, federal customs receipts from the Monthly Treasury Statement since 2015, goods imports, consumer price index and earnings from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Key points
Customs duties collected (gross)$318bnfiscal year FY2026, against $202bn in FY2025
Effective rate on goods imports7.3%Sep. 2026, against 2.6% on average in 2024
Inflation over a year3.7%Sep. 2026, excluding food and energy: 2.6%
Real median weekly earnings−1.6%change over a year, Q3 2026
- Customs receipts multiplied. The Treasury collected $25.3bn in gross customs duties in Sep. 2026, 3.5 times the 2024 monthly average ($7.2bn), after a peak of $33.1bn in Oct. 2025. Over fiscal year FY2026, gross collections reach $318bn.
- Then massive refunds. From May 2026 – Sep. 2026, the Treasury refunded $134bn in duties, including $49.2bn in Jun. 2026 alone: net receipts turned negative ($−25.6bn in Jun. 2026). Over fiscal year FY2026, net receipts ($173bn) are below those of FY2025 ($195bn).
- An effective rate around 7.3%. Relative to goods imports, the duties collected represent 7.3% in Sep. 2026, against 2.6% on average in 2024, with a peak of 12.7% in Oct. 2025.
- Inflation is rising again, driven by energy. Prices are up 3.7% over a year in Sep. 2026, against 3.0% a year earlier. Energy is up 20.4%; goods excluding food and energy, where most imported products sit, 0.7%, after −1.8% in Jun. 2024.
- Wages barely keep up. Average hourly earnings are up 3.2% over a year in Sep. 2026, a gap of −0.6 pt with prices. Real median weekly earnings fell 1.6% over a year; since January 2020, prices have risen 30%.
How to read these figures
Customs receipts are those of the Monthly Treasury Statement: gross collections, refunds and net receipts (gross minus refunds), in the month the money enters or leaves the federal accounts, a few weeks after goods clear customs. The effective rate divides the month’s gross duties by the same month’s goods imports (balance-of-payments basis, seasonally adjusted, Census Bureau and BEA); receipts are not seasonally adjusted, hence a rate that moves from month to month. It is not the average statutory rate: an exempted product or goods that avoid a duty lower the effective rate.
Prices are those of the Bureau of Labor Statistics consumer price index (CPI-U), seasonally adjusted, as a change over twelve months. The October 2025 index was not published: the change over a year for October 2026 cannot be computed, the latest available is September’s. Real median weekly earnings are in 1982-84 dollars (full-time wage and salary workers, quarterly data).
1. What tariffs bring in
Customs duties collected multiplied from April 2025. Since May 2026, the Treasury has also been refunding large amounts, which reduce net receipts.
Customs duties collected and refunded, each month
US$ billions per month. Net receipts = gross collections minus refunds; they can be negative.
- Net receipts
- Refunds
- Gross collections
Source:U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service
Show the chart data
| Period | Gross collections | Refunds | Net receipts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan. 2019 | $6.7bn | $33.7m | $6.6bn |
| Feb. 2019 | $5.4bn | $341.9m | $5.1bn |
| Mar. 2019 | $5.4bn | $219.6m | $5.2bn |
| Apr. 2019 | $5.5bn | $271.7m | $5.2bn |
| May 2019 | $5.1bn | $164.9m | $4.9bn |
| Jun. 2019 | $5.8bn | $216.0m | $5.6bn |
| Jul. 2019 | $6.8bn | $277.5m | $6.5bn |
| Aug. 2019 | $7.2bn | $223.1m | $7.0bn |
| Sep. 2019 | $7.2bn | $340.6m | $6.8bn |
| Oct. 2019 | $8.1bn | $350.5m | $7.8bn |
| Nov. 2019 | $7.4bn | $451.1m | $6.9bn |
| Dec. 2019 | $6.9bn | $485.1m | $6.4bn |
| Jan. 2020 | $7.3bn | $352.0m | $6.9bn |
| Feb. 2020 | $6.7bn | $408.0m | $6.3bn |
| Mar. 2020 | $5.4bn | $587.8m | $4.8bn |
| Apr. 2020 | $4.7bn | $598.6m | $4.1bn |
| May 2020 | $4.5bn | $627.2m | $3.8bn |
| Jun. 2020 | $5.3bn | $829.4m | $4.5bn |
| Jul. 2020 | $5.9bn | $884.5m | $5.0bn |
| Aug. 2020 | $6.5bn | $636.0m | $5.9bn |
| Sep. 2020 | $6.9bn | $875.3m | $6.0bn |
| Oct. 2020 | $6.9bn | $695.4m | $6.2bn |
| Nov. 2020 | $6.8bn | $819.2m | $6.0bn |
| Dec. 2020 | $6.7bn | $665.0m | $6.0bn |
| Jan. 2021 | $6.4bn | $565.6m | $5.9bn |
| Feb. 2021 | $6.8bn | $473.9m | $6.3bn |
| Mar. 2021 | $6.9bn | $623.9m | $6.3bn |
| Apr. 2021 | $7.7bn | $602.8m | $7.1bn |
| May 2021 | $7.0bn | $544.3m | $6.4bn |
| Jun. 2021 | $7.7bn | $538.1m | $7.1bn |
| Jul. 2021 | $7.9bn | $416.8m | $7.5bn |
| Aug. 2021 | $7.8bn | $528.4m | $7.3bn |
| Sep. 2021 | $8.3bn | $492.4m | $7.9bn |
| Oct. 2021 | $8.4bn | $610.6m | $7.8bn |
| Nov. 2021 | $8.4bn | $617.6m | $7.8bn |
| Dec. 2021 | $8.6bn | $446.8m | $8.2bn |
| Jan. 2022 | $8.9bn | $289.3m | $8.6bn |
| Feb. 2022 | $8.5bn | $480.3m | $8.0bn |
| Mar. 2022 | $8.6bn | $489.5m | $8.2bn |
| Apr. 2022 | $9.6bn | $408.1m | $9.2bn |
| May 2022 | $8.5bn | $409.4m | $8.1bn |
| Jun. 2022 | $9.0bn | $624.7m | $8.4bn |
| Jul. 2022 | $9.0bn | $497.6m | $8.5bn |
| Aug. 2022 | $9.1bn | $677.5m | $8.5bn |
| Sep. 2022 | $9.4bn | $633.1m | $8.7bn |
| Oct. 2022 | $8.7bn | $526.7m | $8.2bn |
| Nov. 2022 | $7.8bn | $586.1m | $7.2bn |
| Dec. 2022 | $7.3bn | $759.8m | $6.6bn |
| Jan. 2023 | $7.6bn | $760.9m | $6.8bn |
| Feb. 2023 | $6.8bn | $445.3m | $6.3bn |
| Mar. 2023 | $6.7bn | $525.3m | $6.2bn |
| Apr. 2023 | $6.7bn | $344.1m | $6.3bn |
| May 2023 | $6.7bn | $346.8m | $6.4bn |
| Jun. 2023 | $7.1bn | $648.2m | $6.5bn |
| Jul. 2023 | $7.4bn | $446.5m | $6.9bn |
| Aug. 2023 | $6.8bn | $484.2m | $6.3bn |
| Sep. 2023 | $7.1bn | $428.0m | $6.7bn |
| Oct. 2023 | $7.3bn | $406.5m | $6.9bn |
| Nov. 2023 | $6.7bn | $403.8m | $6.3bn |
| Dec. 2023 | $6.4bn | $650.1m | $5.7bn |
| Jan. 2024 | $7.0bn | $510.8m | $6.5bn |
| Feb. 2024 | $6.8bn | $543.3m | $6.2bn |
| Mar. 2024 | $6.6bn | $578.5m | $6.1bn |
| Apr. 2024 | $7.1bn | $723.2m | $6.4bn |
| May 2024 | $6.2bn | $936.2m | $5.2bn |
| Jun. 2024 | $6.8bn | $440.0m | $6.3bn |
| Jul. 2024 | $7.6bn | $494.1m | $7.1bn |
| Aug. 2024 | $7.6bn | $568.3m | $7.0bn |
| Sep. 2024 | $7.7bn | $480.1m | $7.2bn |
| Oct. 2024 | $7.9bn | $650.8m | $7.3bn |
| Nov. 2024 | $7.4bn | $661.8m | $6.7bn |
| Dec. 2024 | $7.4bn | $573.1m | $6.8bn |
| Jan. 2025 | $7.9bn | $538.9m | $7.3bn |
| Feb. 2025 | $7.7bn | $428.6m | $7.2bn |
| Mar. 2025 | $8.7bn | $581.0m | $8.2bn |
| Apr. 2025 | $16.3bn | $669.1m | $15.6bn |
| May 2025 | $22.8bn | $648.5m | $22.2bn |
| Jun. 2025 | $27.2bn | $522.9m | $26.6bn |
| Jul. 2025 | $28.4bn | $770.3m | $27.7bn |
| Aug. 2025 | $30.1bn | $629.0m | $29.5bn |
| Sep. 2025 | $30.5bn | $817.9m | $29.7bn |
| Oct. 2025 | $33.1bn | $1.7bn | $31.4bn |
| Nov. 2025 | $31.7bn | $977.2m | $30.8bn |
| Dec. 2025 | $29.3bn | $1.4bn | $27.9bn |
| Jan. 2026 | $29.5bn | $1.8bn | $27.7bn |
| Feb. 2026 | $27.2bn | $575.1m | $26.6bn |
| Mar. 2026 | $24.0bn | $1.9bn | $22.2bn |
| Apr. 2026 | $23.9bn | $1.8bn | $22.1bn |
| May 2026 | $21.9bn | $22.0bn | $−42.3m |
| Jun. 2026 | $23.6bn | $49.2bn | $−25.6bn |
| Jul. 2026 | $24.8bn | $33.4bn | $−8.5bn |
| Aug. 2026 | $23.4bn | $10.5bn | $12.8bn |
| Sep. 2026 | $25.3bn | $19.4bn | $5.9bn |
Customs duties by fiscal year (October to September)
US$ billions, complete years. Latest year: FY2026, $318bn gross and $173bn net.
- Net receipts
- Gross collections
Source:U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service
Show the chart data
| Period | Gross collections | Net receipts |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $36.5bn | $34.8bn |
| 2017 | $36.3bn | $34.6bn |
| 2018 | $43.1bn | $41.3bn |
| 2019 | $73.5bn | $70.8bn |
| 2020 | $75.6bn | $68.6bn |
| 2021 | $87.0bn | $80.0bn |
| 2022 | $106.1bn | $99.9bn |
| 2023 | $86.6bn | $80.3bn |
| 2024 | $83.8bn | $77.0bn |
| 2025 | $202.4bn | $194.9bn |
| 2026 | $317.8bn | $173.2bn |
2. The effective rate on imports
Relative to the value of imported goods, the duties collected went from 2.6% on average in 2024 to 12.7% at the highest, in Oct. 2025.
Gross customs duties relative to goods imports
The month’s gross duties (Treasury) divided by the month’s goods imports (balance-of-payments basis). Latest point: 7.3% in Sep. 2026.
Source:U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal ServiceU.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis (via FRED)
Show the chart data
| Period | Effective rate |
|---|---|
| Jan. 2019 | 3.2% |
| Feb. 2019 | 2.6% |
| Mar. 2019 | 2.5% |
| Apr. 2019 | 2.6% |
| May 2019 | 2.4% |
| Jun. 2019 | 2.8% |
| Jul. 2019 | 3.2% |
| Aug. 2019 | 3.4% |
| Sep. 2019 | 3.5% |
| Oct. 2019 | 4.0% |
| Nov. 2019 | 3.7% |
| Dec. 2019 | 3.4% |
| Jan. 2020 | 3.6% |
| Feb. 2020 | 3.3% |
| Mar. 2020 | 2.8% |
| Apr. 2020 | 2.8% |
| May 2020 | 2.7% |
| Jun. 2020 | 3.0% |
| Jul. 2020 | 3.0% |
| Aug. 2020 | 3.2% |
| Sep. 2020 | 3.4% |
| Oct. 2020 | 3.3% |
| Nov. 2020 | 3.2% |
| Dec. 2020 | 3.1% |
| Jan. 2021 | 2.9% |
| Feb. 2021 | 3.1% |
| Mar. 2021 | 3.0% |
| Apr. 2021 | 3.4% |
| May 2021 | 3.0% |
| Jun. 2021 | 3.2% |
| Jul. 2021 | 3.4% |
| Aug. 2021 | 3.2% |
| Sep. 2021 | 3.5% |
| Oct. 2021 | 3.4% |
| Nov. 2021 | 3.2% |
| Dec. 2021 | 3.3% |
| Jan. 2022 | 3.4% |
| Feb. 2022 | 3.2% |
| Mar. 2022 | 3.0% |
| Apr. 2022 | 3.4% |
| May 2022 | 3.0% |
| Jun. 2022 | 3.2% |
| Jul. 2022 | 3.3% |
| Aug. 2022 | 3.4% |
| Sep. 2022 | 3.5% |
| Oct. 2022 | 3.2% |
| Nov. 2022 | 3.0% |
| Dec. 2022 | 2.8% |
| Jan. 2023 | 2.9% |
| Feb. 2023 | 2.6% |
| Mar. 2023 | 2.6% |
| Apr. 2023 | 2.6% |
| May 2023 | 2.6% |
| Jun. 2023 | 2.8% |
| Jul. 2023 | 2.9% |
| Aug. 2023 | 2.6% |
| Sep. 2023 | 2.7% |
| Oct. 2023 | 2.8% |
| Nov. 2023 | 2.6% |
| Dec. 2023 | 2.5% |
| Jan. 2024 | 2.7% |
| Feb. 2024 | 2.5% |
| Mar. 2024 | 2.5% |
| Apr. 2024 | 2.6% |
| May 2024 | 2.3% |
| Jun. 2024 | 2.5% |
| Jul. 2024 | 2.7% |
| Aug. 2024 | 2.8% |
| Sep. 2024 | 2.7% |
| Oct. 2024 | 2.9% |
| Nov. 2024 | 2.6% |
| Dec. 2024 | 2.5% |
| Jan. 2025 | 2.4% |
| Feb. 2025 | 2.4% |
| Mar. 2025 | 2.6% |
| Apr. 2025 | 5.9% |
| May 2025 | 8.3% |
| Jun. 2025 | 10.3% |
| Jul. 2025 | 10.1% |
| Aug. 2025 | 11.3% |
| Sep. 2025 | 11.1% |
| Oct. 2025 | 12.7% |
| Nov. 2025 | 11.5% |
| Dec. 2025 | 10.3% |
| Jan. 2026 | 10.7% |
| Feb. 2026 | 9.4% |
| Mar. 2026 | 8.0% |
| Apr. 2026 | 7.8% |
| May 2026 | 6.9% |
| Jun. 2026 | 7.6% |
| Jul. 2026 | 7.6% |
| Aug. 2026 | 6.8% |
| Sep. 2026 | 7.3% |
3. Consumer prices
Inflation was 3.0% over a year in Sep. 2025. In 2026 it is rising again, mostly because of energy; prices of goods excluding food and energy are rising little.
Inflation over a year, all items and excluding food and energy
Change in the CPI-U over twelve months, %. Dotted line: the Federal Reserve’s 2% target (which it measures on another index, personal consumption expenditures).
- Excluding food and energy
- All items
Source:U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (via FRED)
Show the chart data
| Period | All items | Excluding food and energy |
|---|---|---|
| Jan. 2019 | 1.5% | 2.2% |
| Feb. 2019 | 1.5% | 2.1% |
| Mar. 2019 | 1.9% | 2.1% |
| Apr. 2019 | 2.0% | 2.1% |
| May 2019 | 1.8% | 2.0% |
| Jun. 2019 | 1.7% | 2.1% |
| Jul. 2019 | 1.8% | 2.2% |
| Aug. 2019 | 1.7% | 2.3% |
| Sep. 2019 | 1.7% | 2.3% |
| Oct. 2019 | 1.7% | 2.3% |
| Nov. 2019 | 2.1% | 2.4% |
| Dec. 2019 | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| Jan. 2020 | 2.6% | 2.3% |
| Feb. 2020 | 2.3% | 2.4% |
| Mar. 2020 | 1.5% | 2.1% |
| Apr. 2020 | 0.3% | 1.4% |
| May 2020 | 0.2% | 1.2% |
| Jun. 2020 | 0.7% | 1.2% |
| Jul. 2020 | 1.0% | 1.6% |
| Aug. 2020 | 1.3% | 1.7% |
| Sep. 2020 | 1.4% | 1.7% |
| Oct. 2020 | 1.2% | 1.6% |
| Nov. 2020 | 1.2% | 1.7% |
| Dec. 2020 | 1.3% | 1.6% |
| Jan. 2021 | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| Feb. 2021 | 1.7% | 1.3% |
| Mar. 2021 | 2.7% | 1.6% |
| Apr. 2021 | 4.1% | 3.0% |
| May 2021 | 4.9% | 3.8% |
| Jun. 2021 | 5.3% | 4.4% |
| Jul. 2021 | 5.2% | 4.2% |
| Aug. 2021 | 5.2% | 3.9% |
| Sep. 2021 | 5.4% | 4.0% |
| Oct. 2021 | 6.2% | 4.6% |
| Nov. 2021 | 6.9% | 5.0% |
| Dec. 2021 | 7.2% | 5.5% |
| Jan. 2022 | 7.6% | 6.1% |
| Feb. 2022 | 7.9% | 6.5% |
| Mar. 2022 | 8.6% | 6.5% |
| Apr. 2022 | 8.2% | 6.2% |
| May 2022 | 8.5% | 6.0% |
| Jun. 2022 | 9.0% | 5.9% |
| Jul. 2022 | 8.5% | 5.9% |
| Aug. 2022 | 8.2% | 6.3% |
| Sep. 2022 | 8.2% | 6.6% |
| Oct. 2022 | 7.8% | 6.3% |
| Nov. 2022 | 7.1% | 6.0% |
| Dec. 2022 | 6.4% | 5.7% |
| Jan. 2023 | 6.3% | 5.5% |
| Feb. 2023 | 6.0% | 5.5% |
| Mar. 2023 | 4.9% | 5.6% |
| Apr. 2023 | 5.0% | 5.5% |
| May 2023 | 4.1% | 5.3% |
| Jun. 2023 | 3.1% | 4.9% |
| Jul. 2023 | 3.3% | 4.7% |
| Aug. 2023 | 3.7% | 4.4% |
| Sep. 2023 | 3.7% | 4.1% |
| Oct. 2023 | 3.3% | 4.0% |
| Nov. 2023 | 3.1% | 4.0% |
| Dec. 2023 | 3.3% | 3.9% |
| Jan. 2024 | 3.1% | 3.9% |
| Feb. 2024 | 3.2% | 3.8% |
| Mar. 2024 | 3.5% | 3.8% |
| Apr. 2024 | 3.4% | 3.6% |
| May 2024 | 3.2% | 3.4% |
| Jun. 2024 | 3.0% | 3.3% |
| Jul. 2024 | 2.9% | 3.2% |
| Aug. 2024 | 2.6% | 3.3% |
| Sep. 2024 | 2.4% | 3.3% |
| Oct. 2024 | 2.6% | 3.3% |
| Nov. 2024 | 2.7% | 3.3% |
| Dec. 2024 | 2.9% | 3.2% |
| Jan. 2025 | 3.0% | 3.3% |
| Feb. 2025 | 2.8% | 3.1% |
| Mar. 2025 | 2.4% | 2.8% |
| Apr. 2025 | 2.3% | 2.8% |
| May 2025 | 2.4% | 2.8% |
| Jun. 2025 | 2.7% | 2.9% |
| Jul. 2025 | 2.7% | 3.1% |
| Aug. 2025 | 2.9% | 3.1% |
| Sep. 2025 | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Nov. 2025 | 2.7% | 2.6% |
| Dec. 2025 | 2.7% | 2.6% |
| Jan. 2026 | 2.4% | 2.5% |
| Feb. 2026 | 2.4% | 2.5% |
| Mar. 2026 | 3.3% | 2.6% |
| Apr. 2026 | 3.8% | 2.7% |
| May 2026 | 4.2% | 2.8% |
| Jun. 2026 | 3.5% | 2.6% |
| Jul. 2026 | 3.3% | 2.5% |
| Aug. 2026 | 3.4% | 2.4% |
| Sep. 2026 | 3.7% | 2.6% |
Food at home, goods excluding food and energy, energy
Change over twelve months, %. Food bought in stores; goods excluding food and energy (apparel, vehicles, household furnishings…); energy (motor fuel, electricity, gas).
- Energy
- Goods excluding food and energy
- Food at home
Source:U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (via FRED)
Show the chart data
| Period | Food at home | Goods excluding food and energy | Energy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan. 2019 | 0.7% | 0.4% | −5.8% |
| Feb. 2019 | 1.2% | 0.3% | −5.4% |
| Mar. 2019 | 1.4% | 0.2% | −0.4% |
| Apr. 2019 | 0.7% | −0.1% | 1.5% |
| May 2019 | 1.2% | −0.2% | −0.2% |
| Jun. 2019 | 0.9% | 0.0% | −2.7% |
| Jul. 2019 | 0.6% | 0.3% | −1.5% |
| Aug. 2019 | 0.5% | 0.6% | −4.0% |
| Sep. 2019 | 0.6% | 0.5% | −4.9% |
| Oct. 2019 | 1.0% | 0.3% | −4.8% |
| Nov. 2019 | 1.0% | 0.2% | −0.5% |
| Dec. 2019 | 0.7% | 0.1% | 3.5% |
| Jan. 2020 | 0.8% | −0.3% | 7.7% |
| Feb. 2020 | 0.9% | −0.0% | 3.0% |
| Mar. 2020 | 1.0% | −0.2% | −6.2% |
| Apr. 2020 | 4.1% | −0.8% | −17.9% |
| May 2020 | 4.8% | −1.0% | −18.4% |
| Jun. 2020 | 5.6% | −1.1% | −12.2% |
| Jul. 2020 | 4.6% | −0.6% | −11.4% |
| Aug. 2020 | 4.7% | 0.3% | −9.6% |
| Sep. 2020 | 4.0% | 1.1% | −7.7% |
| Oct. 2020 | 4.0% | 1.3% | −8.9% |
| Nov. 2020 | 3.6% | 1.5% | −9.4% |
| Dec. 2020 | 4.0% | 1.6% | −7.0% |
| Jan. 2021 | 3.7% | 1.7% | −3.5% |
| Feb. 2021 | 3.5% | 1.3% | 2.3% |
| Mar. 2021 | 3.2% | 1.7% | 13.9% |
| Apr. 2021 | 1.2% | 4.4% | 24.5% |
| May 2021 | 0.7% | 6.5% | 27.7% |
| Jun. 2021 | 0.9% | 8.6% | 23.8% |
| Jul. 2021 | 2.6% | 8.3% | 23.2% |
| Aug. 2021 | 3.0% | 7.5% | 24.5% |
| Sep. 2021 | 4.5% | 7.2% | 24.7% |
| Oct. 2021 | 5.3% | 8.5% | 29.9% |
| Nov. 2021 | 6.4% | 9.5% | 33.9% |
| Dec. 2021 | 6.5% | 10.7% | 30.3% |
| Jan. 2022 | 7.4% | 11.8% | 27.2% |
| Feb. 2022 | 8.7% | 12.5% | 25.6% |
| Mar. 2022 | 10.0% | 11.8% | 32.0% |
| Apr. 2022 | 10.8% | 9.8% | 30.0% |
| May 2022 | 12.0% | 8.5% | 34.5% |
| Jun. 2022 | 12.3% | 7.1% | 41.5% |
| Jul. 2022 | 13.1% | 6.8% | 32.9% |
| Aug. 2022 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 23.9% |
| Sep. 2022 | 12.9% | 6.6% | 19.9% |
| Oct. 2022 | 12.4% | 5.1% | 17.7% |
| Nov. 2022 | 12.0% | 3.7% | 13.0% |
| Dec. 2022 | 11.7% | 2.1% | 6.9% |
| Jan. 2023 | 11.2% | 1.3% | 8.3% |
| Feb. 2023 | 10.1% | 0.9% | 4.9% |
| Mar. 2023 | 8.3% | 1.5% | −6.7% |
| Apr. 2023 | 7.2% | 2.0% | −4.9% |
| May 2023 | 5.8% | 2.0% | −11.3% |
| Jun. 2023 | 4.7% | 1.4% | −16.6% |
| Jul. 2023 | 3.6% | 0.9% | −12.3% |
| Aug. 2023 | 3.0% | 0.4% | −3.7% |
| Sep. 2023 | 2.4% | −0.0% | −0.5% |
| Oct. 2023 | 2.1% | 0.0% | −4.4% |
| Nov. 2023 | 1.6% | 0.0% | −5.4% |
| Dec. 2023 | 1.3% | 0.1% | −1.9% |
| Jan. 2024 | 1.2% | −0.3% | −4.3% |
| Feb. 2024 | 1.0% | −0.3% | −1.9% |
| Mar. 2024 | 1.2% | −0.6% | 2.1% |
| Apr. 2024 | 1.2% | −1.1% | 2.4% |
| May 2024 | 1.1% | −1.7% | 3.6% |
| Jun. 2024 | 1.2% | −1.8% | 0.9% |
| Jul. 2024 | 1.1% | −1.7% | 1.0% |
| Aug. 2024 | 0.9% | −1.6% | −4.0% |
| Sep. 2024 | 1.3% | −1.2% | −6.8% |
| Oct. 2024 | 1.2% | −1.2% | −4.8% |
| Nov. 2024 | 1.6% | −0.7% | −3.1% |
| Dec. 2024 | 1.7% | −0.7% | −0.3% |
| Jan. 2025 | 1.8% | −0.1% | 0.8% |
| Feb. 2025 | 1.8% | −0.0% | −0.4% |
| Mar. 2025 | 2.3% | −0.0% | −3.4% |
| Apr. 2025 | 2.0% | 0.2% | −3.6% |
| May 2025 | 2.3% | 0.3% | −3.1% |
| Jun. 2025 | 2.4% | 0.6% | −0.6% |
| Jul. 2025 | 2.2% | 1.1% | −1.2% |
| Aug. 2025 | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Sep. 2025 | 2.7% | 1.5% | 2.9% |
| Nov. 2025 | 1.9% | 1.4% | 4.2% |
| Dec. 2025 | 2.3% | 1.4% | 2.1% |
| Jan. 2026 | 2.2% | 1.1% | −0.3% |
| Feb. 2026 | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Mar. 2026 | 2.0% | 1.2% | 12.6% |
| Apr. 2026 | 3.0% | 1.1% | 17.5% |
| May 2026 | 2.7% | 1.1% | 23.0% |
| Jun. 2026 | 2.7% | 0.8% | 15.5% |
| Jul. 2026 | 2.6% | 0.8% | 14.4% |
| Aug. 2026 | 2.1% | 0.7% | 16.0% |
| Sep. 2026 | 1.8% | 0.7% | 20.4% |
4. Wages and purchasing power
Since mid-2023, wages had risen faster than prices. That gap closed in 2026.
Average hourly earnings and prices, change over a year
Average hourly earnings of all private employees and the CPI-U, % over twelve months.
- All items
- Average hourly earnings
Source:U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (via FRED)
Show the chart data
| Period | Average hourly earnings | All items |
|---|---|---|
| Jan. 2019 | 3.3% | 1.5% |
| Feb. 2019 | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| Mar. 2019 | 3.4% | 1.9% |
| Apr. 2019 | 3.3% | 2.0% |
| May 2019 | 3.3% | 1.8% |
| Jun. 2019 | 3.5% | 1.7% |
| Jul. 2019 | 3.4% | 1.8% |
| Aug. 2019 | 3.4% | 1.7% |
| Sep. 2019 | 3.1% | 1.7% |
| Oct. 2019 | 3.2% | 1.7% |
| Nov. 2019 | 3.3% | 2.1% |
| Dec. 2019 | 3.0% | 2.3% |
| Jan. 2020 | 3.0% | 2.6% |
| Feb. 2020 | 3.1% | 2.3% |
| Mar. 2020 | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| Apr. 2020 | 8.1% | 0.3% |
| May 2020 | 6.6% | 0.2% |
| Jun. 2020 | 5.0% | 0.7% |
| Jul. 2020 | 4.9% | 1.0% |
| Aug. 2020 | 4.8% | 1.3% |
| Sep. 2020 | 4.8% | 1.4% |
| Oct. 2020 | 4.6% | 1.2% |
| Nov. 2020 | 4.6% | 1.2% |
| Dec. 2020 | 5.4% | 1.3% |
| Jan. 2021 | 5.3% | 1.4% |
| Feb. 2021 | 5.3% | 1.7% |
| Mar. 2021 | 4.5% | 2.7% |
| Apr. 2021 | 0.6% | 4.1% |
| May 2021 | 2.3% | 4.9% |
| Jun. 2021 | 3.9% | 5.3% |
| Jul. 2021 | 4.3% | 5.2% |
| Aug. 2021 | 4.4% | 5.2% |
| Sep. 2021 | 5.0% | 5.4% |
| Oct. 2021 | 5.4% | 6.2% |
| Nov. 2021 | 5.4% | 6.9% |
| Dec. 2021 | 4.9% | 7.2% |
| Jan. 2022 | 5.6% | 7.6% |
| Feb. 2022 | 5.3% | 7.9% |
| Mar. 2022 | 5.9% | 8.6% |
| Apr. 2022 | 5.8% | 8.2% |
| May 2022 | 5.6% | 8.5% |
| Jun. 2022 | 5.4% | 9.0% |
| Jul. 2022 | 5.5% | 8.5% |
| Aug. 2022 | 5.4% | 8.2% |
| Sep. 2022 | 5.1% | 8.2% |
| Oct. 2022 | 5.0% | 7.8% |
| Nov. 2022 | 5.1% | 7.1% |
| Dec. 2022 | 4.9% | 6.4% |
| Jan. 2023 | 4.5% | 6.3% |
| Feb. 2023 | 4.8% | 6.0% |
| Mar. 2023 | 4.6% | 4.9% |
| Apr. 2023 | 4.6% | 5.0% |
| May 2023 | 4.4% | 4.1% |
| Jun. 2023 | 4.7% | 3.1% |
| Jul. 2023 | 4.7% | 3.3% |
| Aug. 2023 | 4.5% | 3.7% |
| Sep. 2023 | 4.4% | 3.7% |
| Oct. 2023 | 4.2% | 3.3% |
| Nov. 2023 | 4.1% | 3.1% |
| Dec. 2023 | 4.1% | 3.3% |
| Jan. 2024 | 4.4% | 3.1% |
| Feb. 2024 | 4.1% | 3.2% |
| Mar. 2024 | 4.1% | 3.5% |
| Apr. 2024 | 4.0% | 3.4% |
| May 2024 | 4.1% | 3.2% |
| Jun. 2024 | 3.9% | 3.0% |
| Jul. 2024 | 3.6% | 2.9% |
| Aug. 2024 | 3.9% | 2.6% |
| Sep. 2024 | 3.9% | 2.4% |
| Oct. 2024 | 4.0% | 2.6% |
| Nov. 2024 | 4.2% | 2.7% |
| Dec. 2024 | 4.1% | 2.9% |
| Jan. 2025 | 4.0% | 3.0% |
| Feb. 2025 | 4.1% | 2.8% |
| Mar. 2025 | 4.2% | 2.4% |
| Apr. 2025 | 3.9% | 2.3% |
| May 2025 | 4.0% | 2.4% |
| Jun. 2025 | 3.9% | 2.7% |
| Jul. 2025 | 4.0% | 2.7% |
| Aug. 2025 | 4.0% | 2.9% |
| Sep. 2025 | 3.8% | 3.0% |
| Oct. 2025 | 3.9% | – |
| Nov. 2025 | 3.9% | 2.7% |
| Dec. 2025 | 3.7% | 2.7% |
| Jan. 2026 | 3.7% | 2.4% |
| Feb. 2026 | 3.7% | 2.4% |
| Mar. 2026 | 3.4% | 3.3% |
| Apr. 2026 | 3.6% | 3.8% |
| May 2026 | 3.3% | 4.2% |
| Jun. 2026 | 3.4% | 3.5% |
| Jul. 2026 | 3.2% | 3.3% |
| Aug. 2026 | 3.1% | 3.4% |
| Sep. 2026 | 3.2% | 3.7% |
Real median weekly earnings
Full-time workers, 1982-84 dollars, by quarter. End of 2019: $362 (1982-84 dollars).
Source:U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (via FRED)
Show the chart data
| Period | Real median weekly earnings |
|---|---|
| Q1 2015 | $341 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q2 2015 | $339 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q3 2015 | $340 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q4 2015 | $345 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q1 2016 | $346 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q2 2016 | $345 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q3 2016 | $347 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q4 2016 | $349 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q1 2017 | $352 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q2 2017 | $354 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q3 2017 | $352 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q4 2017 | $345 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q1 2018 | $351 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q2 2018 | $351 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q3 2018 | $354 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q4 2018 | $355 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q1 2019 | $355 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q2 2019 | $358 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q3 2019 | $360 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q4 2019 | $362 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q1 2020 | $367 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q2 2020 | $393 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q3 2020 | $384 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q4 2020 | $376 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q1 2021 | $373 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q2 2021 | $371 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q3 2021 | $367 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q4 2021 | $361 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q1 2022 | $363 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q2 2022 | $359 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q3 2022 | $362 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q4 2022 | $362 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q1 2023 | $364 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q2 2023 | $365 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q3 2023 | $366 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q4 2023 | $369 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q1 2024 | $365 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q2 2024 | $368 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q3 2024 | $371 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q4 2024 | $374 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q1 2025 | $373 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q2 2025 | $376 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q3 2025 | $376 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q1 2026 | $376 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q2 2026 | $378 (1982-84 dollars) |
| Q3 2026 | $370 (1982-84 dollars) |
What we know, what we don’t
What the figures establish
- Customs duties collected multiplied from April 2025, then part of them was refunded from May 2026.
- Inflation rose again in 2026, first because of energy prices.
- Real median weekly earnings are down over a year.
What they don’t tell
- Who pays the duties: importers, retailers or consumers. These series do not measure how much of the duties is passed on to prices.
- The detail of the refunds: the Treasury statement says neither which duties were refunded nor why.
- The effect of tariffs on the vote: these series say nothing about voters’ motivations.
Sources
Series downloaded from their producers on Nov 12, 2026, the snapshot date. Only published periods are used: no projection.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (via FRED) Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), seasonally adjusted: all items, less food and energy, food at home, energy, commodities less food and energy
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (via FRED) Average hourly earnings of all private employees (CES0500000003); real median usual weekly earnings (LES1252881600Q)
- U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis (via FRED) Imports of goods, balance of payments basis, seasonally adjusted (BOPGIMP)
- U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service Monthly Treasury Statement, table 4: receipts of the U.S. Government, customs duties