Budget simulator: build your own budget for France

Start from the 2025 public accounts, choose your economic assumptions, the path of each major item of spending and your tax measures: the simulator projects the deficit and the debt to 2031.

Citoyen

The simulator covers general government as a whole (State, social security, local governments), as defined by the Maastricht Treaty. By default, each item of spending is flat in volume (it follows inflation, no more) and each revenue keeps its share of GDP: the « reference scenario ». Default growth and inflation are the IMF’s projections. The 2014-2024 trend (each item keeps its past average pace) is drawn dashed for comparison and applies in one click.

Your choices apply from 2027: in 2026, spending stays flat in volume. Citoyen does not propose a budget; it shows what each assumption changes, with a simple model documented below.

Explore the State budget mission by mission

Public balance−4.1%Public debt124.7%Interest4.3%

1. Economic assumptions

0.0 pt

Added to the real growth projected by the IMF each year (2026: 0.4%, 2027: 0.7%, 2028: 1.2%, 2029: 1.1%, 2030: 1.1%, 2031: 1.1%).

0.0 pt

Added to the GDP price growth projected by the IMF each year.

4.44%

Default: the 10-year State rate in September 2026 (4.44%). Shorter bonds usually cost less: this rate probably overstates the average cost of new borrowing.

8.5

Sets the share of the debt refinanced each year at the new rate. Order of magnitude published by Agence France Trésor for the State debt: about 8.5 years.

0.0

0: measures do not change GDP. 1: one euro of savings or extra tax lowers GDP by one euro the same year. Published estimates vary with the economic cycle and the measure.

2. Public spending

Yearly change of each major function, in volume (after inflation). Default 0% (flat in volume); each function’s 2014-2024 trend is shown under its slider. 2025 amounts: 2024 split of spending by function (COFOG classification) applied to the 2025 total, interest apart.

All spending:
0.0% a year

trend +0.9%Old-age and survivors’ pensions. 2031: €494bn.

0.0% a year

trend +1.9%Hospital and outpatient care, medicines, prevention. 2031: €298bn.

0.0% a year

trend +1.0%Family, disability, sickness pay, housing, social exclusion. 2031: €242bn.

0.0% a year

trend +0.4%Transport, energy, agriculture, support to business, employment. 2031: €190bn.

0.0% a year

trend +0.8%From pre-school to university. 2031: €170bn.

0.0% a year

trend +0.3%Administration, basic research, development aid; debt interest excluded. 2031: €140bn.

0.0% a year

trend +1.6%Waste, water, urban development, sport, culture, media. 2031: €132bn.

0.0% a year

trend +2.3%Armed forces, military equipment. 2031: €62bn.

0.0% a year

trend +2.1%Police, gendarmerie, fire services, courts, prisons. 2031: €60bn.

0.0% a year

trend −0.3%Unemployment benefits. 2031: €55bn.

3. Revenue

New measures, in points of GDP (1 point ≈ €30bn in 2025): positive = more revenue. Without a measure, each revenue keeps its share of GDP.

0.0 pt of GDP

Employer and employee contributions.

0.0 pt of GDP

VAT, excise duties, property and production taxes.

0.0 pt of GDP

Income tax, CSG, corporate tax.

0.0 pt of GDP

Capital taxes.

0.0 pt of GDP

Sales of services, property income, transfers.

0% · €0.0bn

Share of the €88.9bn of tax expenditures costed in 2025 (excluding the schemes ticked below). Gain computed with behaviour unchanged: the actual yield would probably be lower.

Or remove schemes one by one

The 15 most expensive, 2025 cost according to the administration (official French title).

Outcome in 2031

  • Public balance−4.1%% of GDP 
  • Public debt124.7%% of GDP 
  • Interest4.3%% of GDP 

Primary spending in 2031: €1,843bn (€0bn against the reference)
Revenue measures in 2031: €0bn

Public balance, % of GDP

  • Observed
  • IMF projection (Oct 13, 2026)
  • 2014-2024 trend
  • Your scenario

Observed to 2025 (Eurostat, in grey), projected after. Treaty 3% threshold: −3%.

Public debt, % of GDP

  • Observed
  • IMF projection (Oct 13, 2026)
  • 2014-2024 trend
  • Your scenario

Observed to 2025 (Eurostat, in grey), projected after.

Show the detail by year

Amounts in billions of current euros.

YearRevenueof which measuresSpendingInterestBalanceDebt
20261,59601,67782−163 (−5.3%)3,623 (118.6%)
20271,64101,71298−168 (−5.4%)3,791 (120.7%)
20281,69201,744113−164 (−5.1%)3,956 (122.1%)
20291,74401,777126−159 (−4.8%)4,115 (123.3%)
20301,79601,810139−153 (−4.5%)4,269 (124.1%)
20311,84901,843151−145 (−4.1%)4,414 (124.7%)

How the simulator works

Starting point. The 2025 general government accounts published by Insee and Eurostat: revenue, spending, interest, Maastricht debt. Spending is split by function according to the latest published year of the COFOG classification (2024).

GDP. Nominal GDP follows the real growth and price growth projected by the IMF (World Economic Outlook, Oct 13, 2026), plus your gaps. With a multiplier, each billion of spending or revenue changed against the reference scenario moves GDP in the same year.

Revenue. Each category keeps its share of GDP (elasticity of 1, the usual convention of no-policy-change projections). Your measures are added in points of GDP. Revenue therefore reacts to growth, not to tax rates.

Interest. Each year, the debt falling due and the new deficit are financed at the chosen rate; the rest of the debt keeps its past average rate. Interest therefore rises gradually when the market rate exceeds the average rate on the debt.

Limits. No stock-flow adjustment (privatisations, cash), no effect of rates on growth, no taxpayer behaviour. A tool to understand orders of magnitude, not a forecast.

Sources