A Social Security system paying benefits to more than 70 million Americans and private savings accounts among the most developed in the world — but a trust fund whose depletion is projected for late 2032, with no political deal in sight.
Key points
- Without reform, Social Security's retirement trust fund would be depleted in late 2032: benefits would then have to be cut by about a fifth.
- Americans leave the labour market at around 67, later than in almost every large OECD country.
Citoyen synthesis for the Pensions category in the United States. Grounded in the sector's quantitative data (Social Security Administration, Census Bureau; OECD — SOCX and Pensions at a Glance) and benchmark analyses (CBO, CRFB, Center for Retirement Research). All values are the latest realized observation available — never a forecast. Assessments are kept distinct from sourced facts. Data last updated: November 2026.
1. State of play — where American pensions stand
Two tiers of comparable weight. According to the OECD SOCX database, public cash pensions (old age and survivors) amounted to 7.3% of GDP in 2023, and private pensions to 5.7 points of GDP in 2022 — the highest private share among the countries Citoyen follows in that database. This OECD scope (cash benefits) differs from Eurostat's (ESSPROS): the two measures cannot be compared as one.
Social Security, the public foundation. The federal OASDI programme (old age, survivors, disability) is funded by a 12.4% payroll tax, split between employer and employee, up to a ceiling ($184,500 in 2026). About 72 million beneficiaries will receive the 3.6% cost-of-living adjustment announced on 14 October 2026 for January 2027 — the largest since 2023, after 2.8% in 2026. The average retirement benefit is due to rise from about $2,095 to $2,170 a month, according to the SSA.
A reference age of 67. The full retirement age reaches 67 for people born in 1960 or later; benefits can be claimed from 62 with a reduction, or deferred to 70 with a credit. The effective age of labour market exit was 67.3 for men and 66.7 for women in 2024 (OECD), among the highest in the OECD.
Private saving, the second pillar. Defined contribution workplace plans (401(k)s) and individual accounts (IRAs) have largely replaced the old defined benefit schemes, except in the public sector. Coverage remains uneven: a large share of small-business employees have no access, which has driven the automatic saving programmes set up by several states.
Rising poverty among seniors. According to data released by the Census Bureau in September 2026, the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) reached 15.4% among people aged 65 and over in 2025, up from 12.7% in 2019, according to AARP's analysis — more than 10 million people. The Census also estimates that Social Security lifted 28.8 million people out of poverty in 2025.
2. Outlook — where pensions are heading
A deadline drawing closer. The Social Security Trustees Report released in June 2026 projects the retirement trust fund (OASI) to be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032, a year earlier than last year, and the combined funds (OASDI) in the third quarter of 2034. Combined reserves fell by $160 billion in 2025, to $2.56 trillion. The 75-year actuarial deficit rises to 4.42% of taxable payroll (3.82% in 2025), about 1.5% of GDP according to the CRFB. These are projections: at depletion, current revenue would cover only about four-fifths of scheduled benefits.
The effect of the 2025 budget law. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act created an extra $6,000 tax deduction for people aged 65 and over (2025-2028), which reduces the tax on benefits, part of which flows into the trust funds: the Trustees see it as one factor in the deterioration, along with lower projected fertility.
Proposals, no compromise. Several bills were introduced in 2026: a bipartisan commission modelled on the 1983 Greenspan Commission (proposed in the House in June), a plan by senators from both parties presented in July, and Democratic proposals to raise or remove the payroll tax cap. None has passed. The classic options — higher contributions, a higher retirement age, slower benefit growth, investing part of the reserves — run into both parties' pledge not to touch benefits.
Open questions. Three issues frame the period: (1) timing — act before 2032 or wait for the deadline; (2) sharing the burden between workers and retirees; (3) private saving coverage for employees without a workplace plan.
3. International comparison — the United States among its peers
Like the United Kingdom and Canada, the United States combines a basic public pension with extensive private saving, in contrast with the dominant public schemes of France and Germany.
Three takeaways. (1) Public spending in the lower middle. According to the OECD (SOCX), American public pensions (7.3% of GDP in 2023) are at the level of the United Kingdom (7.1% in 2022), above Canada (5.9%), but well below France (13.4%) and Germany (10.8% in 2021).
(2) The most developed private side. With 5.7 points of GDP in private pensions, the United States outstrips Canada (3.5), the United Kingdom (2.9) and Japan (2.7); in France, private pensions weigh only 0.3 points.
(3) Longer careers. The effective exit age for men (67.3) exceeds Japan's (66.9), Canada's (65.2) and France's (61.9), according to the OECD (2024).
International comparison — pensions
| Country | Public pensions (% GDP) | Private pensions (% GDP) | Exit age M / W (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 13.4% (2022) | 0.3% | 61.9 / 62.4 |
| Germany | 10.8% (2021) | 0.7% | 64.2 / 63.9 |
| Japan | 9.4% (2021) | 2.7% | 66.9 / 67.4 |
| United Kingdom | 7.1% (2022) | 2.9% | 63.8 / 63.1 |
| Canada | 5.9% (2022) | 3.5% | 65.2 / 63.2 |
| United States | 7.3% (2023) | 5.7% (2022) | 67.3 / 66.7 |
Sources: OECD — SOCX database (old-age and survivors cash pensions, public and private kept apart, latest year available); OECD — Pensions at a Glance (average effective age of labour market exit, 2024). Scope distinct from Eurostat ESSPROS data.
Data used (data journalism base)
Show the table
| Data | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Public pensions (old age + survivors, cash) | 7.3% of GDP (2023) | OECD SOCX (Citoyen card) |
| Private pensions | 5.7% of GDP (2022) | OECD SOCX (Citoyen card) |
| Effective exit age (men / women) | 67.3 / 66.7 years (2024) | OECD (Citoyen card) |
| Cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) | +2.8% (2026); +3.6% (January 2027) | SSA |
| Projected OASI trust fund depletion | Q4 2032 (projection) | Trustees Report 2026 |
| 75-year actuarial deficit | 4.42% of taxable payroll (projection) | Trustees Report 2026 |
| Poverty, aged 65 and over (SPM) | 15.4% (2025) | Census Bureau (via AARP) |
Sources (national analyses and references)
Social Security Administration (Trustees Report 2026, 2027 COLA announcement) · Census Bureau (Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage, September 2026) · AARP Foundation · Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) · Congressional Budget Office (CBO) · Center for Retirement Research (Boston College) · OECD (SOCX, Pensions at a Glance).
Methodological note — the synthesis distinguishes sourced facts from assessments, stays neutral, dates every figure and does not extrapolate beyond its sources. Spending comparisons rely on the OECD SOCX database (cash benefits), not to be confused with Eurostat ESSPROS data. Trust fund depletion dates are Trustees projections, presented as such. Same safeguards as the rest of the observatory.