Friedrich Merz: the record in figures
Since May 2025, what has improved, what has worsened, and are the coalition agreement’s commitments being kept?
Scope: Germany, from 6 May 2025 to 9 November 2026; comparison with the EU-27 over the same period.
Key points
- Weak growth, below the EU’s. Real GDP grows 1.2% between Q1 2025 and Q3 2026, against 2.0% in the EU; manufacturing output falls 1.1% (EU −0.1%).
- Unemployment edges up: 3.7% in April 2025, 4.1% in September 2026 (+0.4 points, EU +0.2 points). It remains among the lowest in the Union, and the employment rate of 20-64 year-olds still rises (81.2% → 81.5%).
- Debt is rising again with the choice to invest and rearm: 61.2% of GDP in Q1 2025, 63.4% in Q2 2026 (EU 82.9%); the deficit goes from 2.7% to 2.9% of GDP between 2024 and 2025.
- Prices a little calmer than in the EU (+4.1% since April 2025, EU +4.5%), and real disposable income per capita growing in line with the Union (+0.9%, EU +1.0%).
- First-time asylum applications halved between 2024 and 2025 (229,750 → 113,235), a steeper fall than in the EU (−26%).
The record in figures, period by period
Pick a period: each indicator is read between the last figure published before the term began and the last one before it ended (or the latest one for a term still running), and compared with the European Union over exactly the same window.
8 improved, 7 worsened, 0 stable, 4 without value judgement
How to read the charts: Germany (blue) and the EU (grey) start from the same point at the beginning of the selected period, 0 for a rate (change in points), 100 for a level. Light line: before the period. Bands: the terms of office.
Economy
- Real GDPImproved+1.2%EU: +2.0%
€915bn (Q1 2025) → €926bn (Q3 2026)
worse than the EU · latest published figure
Cumulative growth of inflation-adjusted GDP (chain-linked volumes, seasonally adjusted quarterly data).
- Real GDP per capitaImproved+0.2%EU: +1.2%
€43,650 (2024) → €43,750 (2025)
worse than the EU · latest published figure
In constant 2020 euros: growth per inhabitant.
- Manufacturing outputWorsened−1.1%EU: −0.1%
93.4 (Apr 2025) → 92.4 (Sep 2026)
worse than the EU · latest published figure
Manufacturing production index (2021 = 100, seasonally and calendar adjusted).
See the card: Industrial productionSource: Eurostat sts_inpr_m
Jobs
- Unemployment rate (ILO)Worsened+0.4 ptEU: +0.2 pt
3.7% (Apr 2025) → 4.1% (Sep 2026)
worse than the EU · latest published figure
ILO unemployed, aged 15-74, as % of the labour force, monthly, seasonally adjusted.
See the card: Unemployment rate (ILO)Source: Eurostat une_rt_m
- Unemployment, under 25sWorsened+0.7 ptEU: +0.6 pt
6.8% (Apr 2025) → 7.5% (Sep 2026)
worse than the EU · latest published figure
See the card: Youth unemployment (15-24)Source: Eurostat une_rt_m
- Employment rate, aged 20-64Improved+0.3 ptEU: +0.4 pt
81.2% (Q1 2025) → 81.5% (Q2 2026)
worse than the EU · latest published figure
Share of 20-64 year-olds in employment (harmonised Labour Force Survey).
See the card: Employment rate (15-64)Source: Eurostat lfsi_emp_q
- Employment rate, aged 55-64Improved+0.3 ptEU: +1.2 pt
75.0% (2024) → 75.3% (2025)
worse than the EU · latest published figure
See the card: Senior employment rate (55-64)Source: Eurostat lfsi_emp_a
Prices and purchasing power
- Consumer prices (HICP)No judgement+4.1%EU: +4.5%
131.7 (Apr 2025) → 137.1 (Sep 2026)
better than the EU · latest published figure
Cumulative price rise (harmonised index). A smaller rise than in the EU reads as an advantage.
See the card: HICP (harmonised)Source: Eurostat prc_hicp_minr
- Real disposable income per capitaImproved+0.9%EU: +1.0%
118.2 (Q1 2025) → 119.3 (Q2 2026)
worse than the EU · latest published figure
Purchasing power of households’ gross disposable income, per inhabitant (quarterly accounts, index).
See the card: Real disposable income per capitaSource: Eurostat nasq_10_ki
Public finances
- Budget balance (% of GDP)Worsened−0.2 ptEU: 0.0 pt
−2.7% (2024) → −2.9% (2025)
worse than the EU · latest published figure
General government balance (Maastricht definition). Negative = deficit.
- Public debt (% of GDP)Worsened+2.2 ptsEU: +1.9 pt
61.2% (Q1 2025) → 63.4% (Q2 2026)
worse than the EU · latest published figure
General government gross debt (Maastricht definition), end of quarter.
- Public spending (% of GDP)No judgement+1.1 ptEU: +0.5 pt
49.0% (2024) → 50.1% (2025)
latest published figure
No value judgement: its level is a collective choice.
- Taxes and social contributions (% of GDP)No judgement+1.1 ptEU: +0.5 pt
40.2% (2024) → 41.3% (2025)
latest published figure
Taxes and actual social contributions. No value judgement.
See the card: Mandatory leviesSource: Eurostat gov_10a_taxag
Social cohesion and education
- Poverty rate (60% threshold)Worsened+0.6 ptEU: +0.1 pt
15.5% (2024) → 16.1% (2025)
worse than the EU · latest published figure
EU-SILC survey: year N describes incomes of N−1.
- Income inequality (Gini index)Worsened+0.6 ptEU: −0.2 pt
29.5 (2024) → 30.1 (2025)
worse than the EU · latest published figure
0 = perfect equality, 100 = one household gets everything. Same survey as poverty.
- Early leavers from educationImproved−0.4 ptEU: −0.5 pt
13.5% (2024) → 13.1% (2025)
worse than the EU · latest published figure
18-24 year-olds without upper-secondary qualification and not in training.
See the card: Early school leavingSource: Eurostat edat_lfse_14
Climate and energy
- Greenhouse gas emissionsImproved−0.2%EU: −0.2%
662 Mt (2024) → 660 Mt (2025)
in line with the EU · latest published figure
Excluding land use (LULUCF), million tonnes CO₂ equivalent (EDGAR, European Commission, 2026 edition, which already covers 2025).
- Renewables share of energyImproved+1.4 ptEU: +1.0 pt
22.5% (2024) → 23.9% (2025)
better than the EU · latest published figure
Share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption.
Immigration
- First-time asylum applicationsNo judgement−50.7%EU: −26.3%
229,750 (2024) → 113,235 (2025)
latest published figure
No value judgement.
See the card: Asylum applicationsSource: Eurostat migr_asyappctza
Reading: “Improved” / “Worsened” gives the direction of the change for a citizen (less unemployment, more jobs…), not a cause. An indicator whose level is a political choice (spending, revenue) is shown without judgement. A change whose window covers less than half of the span between its two figures is not shown (too early to judge). Sources: Eurostat, EDGAR, data extracted on 9 November 2026.
Show the full table of indicators for the selected period
| Indicator | Start of period | End of period | Change | EU (same period) | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP | €915bn (Q1 2025) | €926bn (Q3 2026) | +1.2% | +2.0% | Improved |
| Real GDP per capita | €43,650 (2024) | €43,750 (2025) | +0.2% | +1.2% | Improved |
| Manufacturing output | 93.4 (Apr 2025) | 92.4 (Sep 2026) | −1.1% | −0.1% | Worsened |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 3.7% (Apr 2025) | 4.1% (Sep 2026) | +0.4 pt | +0.2 pt | Worsened |
| Unemployment, under 25s | 6.8% (Apr 2025) | 7.5% (Sep 2026) | +0.7 pt | +0.6 pt | Worsened |
| Employment rate, aged 20-64 | 81.2% (Q1 2025) | 81.5% (Q2 2026) | +0.3 pt | +0.4 pt | Improved |
| Employment rate, aged 55-64 | 75.0% (2024) | 75.3% (2025) | +0.3 pt | +1.2 pt | Improved |
| Consumer prices (HICP) | 131.7 (Apr 2025) | 137.1 (Sep 2026) | +4.1% | +4.5% | No judgement |
| Real disposable income per capita | 118.2 (Q1 2025) | 119.3 (Q2 2026) | +0.9% | +1.0% | Improved |
| Budget balance (% of GDP) | −2.7% (2024) | −2.9% (2025) | −0.2 pt | 0.0 pt | Worsened |
| Public debt (% of GDP) | 61.2% (Q1 2025) | 63.4% (Q2 2026) | +2.2 pts | +1.9 pt | Worsened |
| Public spending (% of GDP) | 49.0% (2024) | 50.1% (2025) | +1.1 pt | +0.5 pt | No judgement |
| Taxes and social contributions (% of GDP) | 40.2% (2024) | 41.3% (2025) | +1.1 pt | +0.5 pt | No judgement |
| Poverty rate (60% threshold) | 15.5% (2024) | 16.1% (2025) | +0.6 pt | +0.1 pt | Worsened |
| Income inequality (Gini index) | 29.5 (2024) | 30.1 (2025) | +0.6 pt | −0.2 pt | Worsened |
| Early leavers from education | 13.5% (2024) | 13.1% (2025) | −0.4 pt | −0.5 pt | Improved |
| Greenhouse gas emissions | 662 Mt (2024) | 660 Mt (2025) | −0.2% | −0.2% | Improved |
| Renewables share of energy | 22.5% (2024) | 23.9% (2025) | +1.4 pt | +1.0 pt | Improved |
| First-time asylum applications | 229,750 (2024) | 113,235 (2025) | −50.7% | −26.3% | No judgement |
Strengths and weaknesses
What the data say about the first eighteen months (May 2025 → latest figure), separating what moves faster or slower than in the rest of the Union. The figures come from the table above.
What improved
- A labour market that holds. Employment rate of 20-64 year-olds at 81.5% (+0.3 points), that of 55-64 year-olds at 75.3% in 2025; unemployment, at 4.1%, remains among the lowest in the EU (6.2%).
- Contained inflation. Consumer prices rose 4.1% since April 2025, against 4.5% in the EU.
- Renewables. Their share of final energy consumption rises from 22.5% to 23.9% between 2024 and 2025, faster than in the EU (+1.0 point).
- Fewer asylum applications. First-time applications halved between 2024 and 2025 (−51%, EU −26%). Shown without value judgement in the table.
What worsened
- Growth and industry. GDP +1.2% since early 2025 against +2.0% in the EU; GDP per capita almost flat in 2025 (+0.2%); manufacturing output −1.1%.
- Unemployment rises. +0.4 points since April 2025 (3.7% → 4.1%), +0.7 points among under-25s (6.8% → 7.5%).
- Debt and deficit. Debt gains 2.2 points of GDP in five quarters (61.2% → 63.4%) and the deficit widens slightly (−2.7% → −2.9% of GDP), while staying below the EU average.
- Poverty and inequality. Poverty rate 15.5% → 16.1% and Gini index 29.5 → 30.1 between the 2024 and 2025 surveys, which mostly describe incomes from before the term.
The promises: kept or not?
The main quantified or verifiable commitments of the CDU/CSU programme and of the CDU/CSU-SPD coalition agreement of April 2025, and what became of them. The status rests on the laws passed and the official figures cited as sources; “in progress” flags a commitment whose deadline has not passed.
CDU/CSU programme and coalition agreement (2025)
- In progressInvestment
Give infrastructure a “booster” through the €500bn special fund.
The fund, created by the constitutional amendment of March 2025, can commit investment over twelve years. According to Destatis, general government gross investment reached €147.5bn in 2025, up 12.3%, the largest rise since 2000, driven mainly by equipment (including military goods); growth slowed to 3.2% year on year in Q1 2026.[1],[3],[9]
- In progressDefence
Raise defence spending to reach the NATO target of 3.5% of GDP by 2029 (set at the Hague summit for 2035, plus 1.5% of defence-relevant infrastructure).
In the 2026 budget, defence spending rises from €62.4bn to €82.7bn, plus €25.5bn from the Bundeswehr special fund. The government plans a gradual increase to a NATO ratio of 3.5% in 2029.[7],[8]
- Partly keptEnergy
Cut the electricity tax “for everyone” to the EU minimum, as part of a package lowering power prices by at least 5 cents per kWh.
Since early 2026 the tax has been permanently cut to the EU minimum for more than 600,000 producing companies and for agriculture and forestry. Households do not benefit: the summer 2025 draft budget limited the cut to businesses.[1],[10],[11]
- KeptEnergy
Reduce levies and grid fees on electricity.
The gas storage levy has been abolished and the federal government subsidises lower grid fees: according to the government, about €10bn a year for all consumers, i.e. about €160 saved in 2026 for a household using 3,500 kWh of electricity and 20,000 kWh of gas. A subsidised industrial power price applies from 2026 to 2028.[1],[10]
- KeptBusiness taxation
Introduce an “investment booster”: 30% declining-balance depreciation on equipment in 2025, 2026 and 2027.
The tax investment programme act, promulgated on 18 July 2025, allows declining-balance depreciation of up to three times the straight-line rate, capped at 30%, for assets acquired between 1 July 2025 and 31 December 2027.[1],[12]
- KeptBusiness taxation
- KeptTaxation
- KeptPensions
Guarantee by law a pension level of 48% until 2031, with the extra cost paid from taxes.
The “2025 pension package”, passed by the Bundestag on 5 December 2025 and approved by the Bundesrat on 19 December, took effect on 1 January 2026: the 48% “holding line” is extended to 2031. A pension commission is due to present proposals by mid-2026.[1],[14]
- KeptPensions
- KeptPensions
“Active pension”: up to €2,000 a month of wages tax-free for people who choose to keep working past the statutory retirement age.
Passed by the Bundestag on 5 December 2025 and approved by the Bundesrat on 19 December, the measure has applied since 1 January 2026 (€2,000 a month, €24,000 a year); social contributions remain due. The pension package also lifted the ban on returning to one’s former employer after the statutory age.[1],[15],[16],[14]
- In progressPensions
Launch the “early-start pension” on 1 January 2026: €10 a month paid by the state, from age 6 to 18, into a funded retirement account for every child in school.
The bill was only adopted by the cabinet on 12 August 2026. It plans entry into force on 1 January 2027, starting retroactively on 1 January 2026 for children born in 2020, with each new cohort of six-year-olds added from 2027.[1],[17],[18]
- KeptSocial security
Turn the “Bürgergeld” into a new basic income support for jobseekers, with more binding rights and duties.
Passed by the Bundestag on 5 March 2026 (320 for, 268 against, 2 abstentions) and approved by the Bundesrat on 27 March, the reform has been phasing in since 1 July 2026: the benefit becomes the “Grundsicherungsgeld”, job placement takes priority again and a parent can be required to work once the child is 14 months old (previously 3 years).[1],[19],[20]
- KeptImmigration
Turn people back at shared borders, in agreement with European neighbours, including those seeking asylum, and keep controls at all borders.
Asylum seekers have been turned back since May 2025. At the Baden-Württemberg border alone, the federal police turned back 13,447 people from 7 May 2025 to the end of June 2026, 162 of them after an asylum request. Nationally, the Federal Office for Migration recorded 113,236 first asylum applications in 2025, 50.7% fewer than in 2024.[1],[21],[22]
- KeptImmigration
Suspend family reunification for people with subsidiary protection for two years, except in hardship cases.
The law took effect on 24 July 2025: this family reunification is no longer granted until 23 July 2027, except on humanitarian grounds. It had previously been capped at 1,000 visas a month.[1],[23]
- KeptCitizenship
- KeptDefence
Create a new, attractive military service, initially voluntary, and restore military registration.
The military service modernisation act has been in force since 1 January 2026: every 18-year-old German receives a questionnaire (compulsory for men) and medical screening is compulsory for men born in 2008. Service lasts at least six months; compulsory service “as needed” would require a new law. Target: 260,000 active soldiers and 200,000 reservists by 2035.[1],[25]
- KeptTransport
- In progressRed tape
Cut businesses’ bureaucracy costs by 25% (about €16bn) and compliance costs for businesses, citizens and the administration by at least €10bn.
According to the government’s report on state modernisation (October 2026), businesses’ annual compliance costs fell by a net €1.7bn or so by 30 June 2026, and bureaucracy costs from reporting obligations by about €232m.[1],[27]
The context: the events of the period
A record is not read out of context: the period is marked by US tariffs, the war in Ukraine and an investment plan of unprecedented size.
February 23, 2025
Snap federal election
The CDU (22.6%) and the CSU (6.0%) come first on second votes, ahead of the AfD (20.8%) and the SPD (16.4%), according to the Federal Returning Officer’s final result. The Union then forms a coalition with the SPD.[2]
March 18, 2025
The debt brake is loosened before taking office
The outgoing Bundestag adopts a Basic Law amendment by 512 votes to 206: defence spending above 1% of GDP is exempted from the debt brake and a €500bn infrastructure special fund is created (including €100bn for the Länder and €100bn for the climate fund). The Bundesrat approves it on 21 March.[3]
May 6, 2025
Elected chancellor in a second round
In the first round Friedrich Merz receives only 310 votes, six short of the required majority of 316. He is elected the same afternoon in a second round with 325 of 618 votes cast.[4]
July 27, 2025
EU-US trade deal
Political agreement between the Commission President and the US President, set out in a joint statement on 21 August: a US tariff of at most 15% on the vast majority of EU exports, cars included. According to Destatis, exports fell again in 2025, partly because of higher US tariffs.[5],[6]
November 28, 2025
The 2026 federal budget is adopted
The Bundestag adopts the 2026 budget, which the Bundesrat approves on 19 December. The government sets three priorities for it: investment, structural reforms and consolidation.[7]
September 6, 2026
The AfD comes first in Saxony-Anhalt
According to the provisional result, the AfD wins 43.8% and 39 of 83 seats, three short of an absolute majority; the CDU falls from 37.1% to 17.2%. Turnout reaches 77.8%, a record for the state.[28],[29]
The reforms Citoyen follows
The major reforms of the period that have their own detailed factsheet (timeline, measures, debate, indicators to follow).
Method
Which value at the start and end of a term? The last figure whose period had ended on that date. For a term that began on 6 May 2025: April 2025 for a monthly series, Q1 2025 for a quarterly one, 2024 for an annual one. A term still running ends on the latest published figure. A change is shown only if the selected period covers at least half of the span between its two figures.
Why compare with the European Union? Part of the changes comes from common shocks (Covid, energy prices, interest rates). The change of the aggregate (EU-27) over the same window is a benchmark: “better” means the country did better than that reference over the period, whatever the cause.
What this record does not say. It measures changes, not causes: an indicator that improves during a term is not necessarily due to the policies pursued, and vice versa. After eighteen months, the annual data cover only one year (2025), and the 2025 income survey (EU-SILC) describes 2024 incomes: poverty and inequality mostly reflect the previous period. Emissions come from EDGAR (European Commission, 2026 edition), which already covers 2025, as the official inventory stops in 2024.
Sources
- Indicators. Eurostat dissemination database (namq_10_gdp, sdg_08_10, sts_inpr_m, une_rt_m, lfsi_emp_q, lfsi_emp_a, prc_hicp_minr, nasq_10_ki, gov_10a_main, gov_10q_ggdebt, gov_10a_taxag, ilc_li02, ilc_di12, edat_lfse_14, nrg_ind_ren, migr_asyappctza) and EDGAR, European Commission (emissions, 2026 edition), Germany and EU-27, extracted on 9 November 2026 by scripts/analyses/build-mandate-data.py.Eurostat
- Term dates. Federal Government, list of chancellors since 1949 (Citoyen’s terms-of-office dataset).bundesregierung.de
- [1] Responsibility for Germany: coalition agreement between the CDU, CSU and SPD, 21st legislative term · CDU, CSU, SPD
- [2] 2025 federal election: results for Germany · Die Bundeswahlleiterin
- [3] Majority for debt brake reform: 512 members vote yes · Deutscher Bundestag
- [4] Friedrich Merz elected Federal Chancellor with 325 votes · Deutscher Bundestag
- [5] Joint EU-US statement on transatlantic trade and investment · Commission européenne, représentation en Allemagne
- [6] GDP grew by 0.2% in 2025 (press release No. 017 of 15 January 2026) · Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis)
- [7] Questions and answers on the 2026 federal budget · Bundesregierung
- [8] Rise in defence spending debated · Deutscher Bundestag
- [9] Largest rise since 2000: general government gross investment up 12.3% in 2025 on 2024 · Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis)
- [10] What the federal government is doing to ease energy prices · Bundesregierung
- [11] No electricity price relief for households: government limits electricity tax cut · Stromauskunft · secondary source
- [12] Tax investment programme act promulgated in the Federal Law Gazette · KPMG Tax News · secondary source
- [13] Relief for restaurants: reduced VAT rate on meals from 1 January 2026 · IHK Frankfurt am Main · secondary source
- [14] 2025 pension package in force: keeping pensions stable, reliable and fair · Bundesregierung
- [15] Active pension from 2026: what employers should know · Grant Thornton · secondary source
- [16] Active Pension Act: Bundestag decision · KPMG Tax News · secondary source
- [17] Federal cabinet: results (55th meeting, 12 August 2026) · Bundesregierung
- [18] Federal cabinet adopts the early-start pension bill · Deutsche Rentenversicherung
- [19] Roll-call vote: turning the Bürgergeld into a new basic income support (5 March 2026) · Deutscher Bundestag
- [20] New basic income support replaces the Bürgergeld · Bundesregierung
- [21] Effects of border controls in Baden-Württemberg (hib 707/2026) · Deutscher Bundestag
- [22] Asylum figures for the full year and December 2025 · Bundesamt für Migration und Flüchtlinge (BAMF)
- [23] Suspension of family reunification for people with subsidiary protection takes effect · Informationsverbund Asyl & Migration (asyl.net) · secondary source
- [24] Citizenship after five years at the earliest · Bundesregierung
- [25] The new military service: questions and answers · Bundesregierung
- [26] Deutschlandticket price rise on 1 January 2026; amendment of the fare rules (Deutschlandticket coordination council) · Bayerisches Staatsministerium für Wohnen, Bau und Verkehr
- [27] Government reports progress on state modernisation (hib 808/2026) · Deutscher Bundestag
- [28] Saxony-Anhalt has elected its state parliament: what now? · Legal Tribune Online · secondary source
- [29] Saxony-Anhalt has elected a new state parliament · Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung · secondary source